October 1st, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations - Russia takes Vuhledar

- Ukrainians small gains in Kursk salient

- Russians gains on both sides of salient

- More Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Politics - Russia — New Conscription Act

Weather

Kharkiv

68 and sunny. Sunny to partly cloudy through middle of next week. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

68 and cloudy. Mostly sunny Wednesday through Friday, cloudy weekend. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

59 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy to cloudy this week, rain Friday through Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs near 70. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian forces made some gains west of the salient in the vicinity of Veseloye even as Ukrainian forces made small gains south-east of Korenevo, pushing back Russian forces that had made small gains in each of the last several days.

On the east side of the salient Russian forces made gains south-east of Sudzha.

North of Kharkiv 

Russian forces made small gains in Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv) , and the situation around Hlyboke showed no changes 

North of the Donets River

Russian forces reported gains in multiple sections of the line - east of Kupyansk, further south (west of Svatove) and north-west of Kreminna, but none of these gains were confirmed. Russian forces continue to press for the Zherebets and Oskil rivers.

Bakhmut 

North of Bakhmut the fighting continued but here were no confirmed gains by either side.

West of Bakhmut Russian forces continued to make small gains north of Chasiv Yar, while fighting continues to the east, and to the south-east; east of Stupochky. Further south fighting is also taking place just east of Bila Hora, and Russian forces may be pressing on the eastern edge of that town.

Further south, west of Horlivka, Russian forces continue to make slow progress pushing into Toretsk from the east and appear to have clear control of the terrain north of Niu York as far north as Toretsk. A Russian element also continues to press westward 

from just south of Toretsk, offering the possibility of circling the town from the south.

Donertsk City

Russian forces continue to press west and south-west and south from the west and south side of the salient. In the Selydove area (south-east of Pokrovsk), Russian forces now appear to be pressing west on both sides of the town. They appear to be circling the city and will presumably leave some artillery to pound the city while the infantry continues to press westward. 

North of Selydove Russian forces appear to have complete control of Krasnyi Yar and Krutyi Yar and continue to press west and north-west.

To the south and south-east, the pocket west of Nevelske (under the southern edge of the salient) remains about 3 miles wide, west to east.

West of Donetsk City Russian forces continue to push west from the general area of Marinka and have now reached the area just south of Maksymilyanivka, west of Heorhivka. Further south Russian forces are now in the vicinity of Katerynivka and Yelyzavetivka, and have pushed several miles west of Vodyane. 

As discussed last week, the Russian are pushing the front line west and as Vuhledar falls Ukrainian forces may find that they will be operating behind a line that runs from roughly from Pokrovsk south to Vuhledar, and that line will start bending to the west if Velyka Novsilke falls. 

That represents several hundred square miles of land that has fallen to the Russians since the Fall of Avdiivka. More significant is that it forces the Ukrainian army backward into less well prepared defenses, breaks the several year old lines that had held into the east, and firmly signals that the Russian army has the initiative.

Further south, Russian forces pressed into Vuhledar for the east, west  and south at the same time. As of yesterday afternoon Russian forces had been confirmed to have taken the western edge of Vuhledar, while fighting continued on the east side of town, perhaps 2,000 - 2,500 feet away. But by late morning today (US east coast time) it appears that Russian forces had pushed into central Vuhledar, and the Ukrainian  forces had withdrawn to the north. Whether Ukrainian forces managed to withdraw or had been surrounded is not clear, but the town is now occupied by Russian forces. 

Further to the west Russian forces are pressing on Velyka Novosilke and are also probing north from Robotyne.

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Russian forces continued to attack north in the area south of Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line across southern Ukraine.

Air Operations

This morning there were multiple ballistic missile and drone launches into central Ukraine and 4 oblasts reported strikes on the power infrastructure. No hard numbers have been released yet. In addition, Russian sources claimed an Iskander ballistic missile hit an ammo dump Odessa Oblast.

As reported yesterday, on the night of the 29th and during the morning of the 30th Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander class ballistic missile, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, 1 x Kh-31P anti-radiation missile and 73 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. Of note, the Iskander ballistic missile was reputedly targeting an ammunition train in Kazanka, Mykolaiv Oblast.

Politics

President Putin signed out Russia’s semi-annual conscription act, and between October 1st and December 31st the Russian army will draft 133,000 long men. The total was 150,000 last March 31st.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Umierov announced the dismissal of four of his eight deputies.

"I have signed a submission to the Cabinet of Ministers (Ukrainian government) on the dismissal of the following Deputy Ministers of Defence - Stanislav Haider (who is moving to the position of the head of the Minister's Office), Oleksandr Serhii, Yurii Dzhyhyr and Liudmyla Darahan (State Secretary)."

Russia’s Duma (the lower house of the parliament) passed bill to allow more prisoners etc, to fight. Under the new bill, those convicted as well as those who are currently being tried can be sent off to the war. It is estimated that there are 60,000 people in Russia right now facing criminal prosecution and as many as 24,000 (40%) are estimated to be in line or service in Ukraine.

Mark Rutte replaced Jens Stolteneberg today as Secretary General of NATO. Rutte was the Prime Minister of the Netherlands from 2010 to 2024. Rutte gradated from Leiden University in 1992 with an MA in history, ten worked for 10 years for Unilever. IN 2002 he ran for parliament and has been in politics since. He’s 57 year old.

Stoltenberg was NATO Secretary General for 10 years and rico to that was the prime Minster of Norway for 9 years.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep30 Oct1

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 71.55 74.90

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 67.91 71.37

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.90 2.89

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.80 5.84

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 93.10 95.80

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.78 40.89 41.22 41.31

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 65.72 66.44

ESPO   67.02      65 77 77

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 66.36 65.35

Thoughts

The loss of Vuhledar appears to have taken place in the last 24 hours, and Russian forces are releasing video of their troops strolling casually around the town and waving flags.  

This loss will, as I’ve mentioned before, significantly change the geography of the front line. Whether Ukrainian forces have prepared hardened fighting positions for the army to fall into isn't clear, but the anecdotal reporting online suggests that such positions are present in some area, and not so in others, that some have been well built up, and others are rudimentary at best.

Fortunately, Ukrainian reconnaissance, (and US and NATO surveillance assets) will provide ample warning of any effort mass forces to conduct any kind of “Rommelesque” attack into the Ukrainian rear. But that isn’t the Russian operational art in any case. Russia has neither the mechanized assets nor the battlefield logistics to support such an attack. Nor do they have the command and control to coordinate it.

But, more to the point, they are not interested in taking that level of risk; daring attacks can achieve great things, but with great risk. Since the withdrawal from Kherson (west of the Dnepr) Russian forces have fought with very conservative tactics, and they would not only find it difficult to change tactic now, I suspect they would find their leadership uninterested in accepting the risk.

Rather, assuming Vuhledar is fully secured over the course of the next several days, look for Russian forces to continue to grind forward. More effort will be placed on Pokrovsk, and attacks will press on Velyka Novosilke and on Hukyaipole, and Orikhiv pushing the line further west and further north. Further, I would suspect that the Russians will prepare to continue the war attack through the rains of autumn and into winter.

The other impact here will be the effect on morale. Certainly for the Russians, the taking of Vuhledar will be seen as payback for the making that the two Naval Infantry regiments received in 2022. Vuhledar had been portrayed in some Ukrainian press as some sort of indestructible fortress. So, The Russians will be quite pleased with its fall.

For the Ukrainian army the loss will sting, but the fact that it held out for more than 2 years of constant attack speaks for itself. The Ukrainians may find that the valiant defense speaks for itself. We’ll see.

v/r pete