September 30th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations - Russia Closing on Vuhledar

- Ukrainians small gains west of Kursk

- Russians gains on both sides of salient

- More Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Air Operations - Grid hit, Hospital hit

Politics - LTG Budanov out?

Weather

Autumn is here, temperatures a bit lower this week, and the first few days of rain. 

Kharkiv

66 and clear. Sunny to partly cloudy through middle of next week. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

72 and mostly cloudy. Mostly sunny through Friday. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

52 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Rain later tonight, cloudy this week, rain Friday through Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs near 70. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Fighting continued throughout the weekend, with some gains noted; Ukrainian forces west of the main salient, near the town of Veseloye, made some gains into that town on the 28th. In the main salient Russian forces appear to have made gains on both the west and east sides of the salient on both the 27th and 29th.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continued throughout the weekend in both the small pockets occupied by the Russians, but there were no gains noted on either side.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces continued to make gains south-east of Kupyansk and, per a Ukrainian battalion commander in the area, Russian forces have complete control of Pishchane and the immediate area, are pressing on the town of Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka (both are on the east bank of the Oskil River) and are, in fact 2 kilometers from the Oskil River. Kruhlyakivka (the southern-most of the town towns) has a bridge across the Oskil, one that is strong enough to take the weight of a T-72 tank.

Elsewhere fighting continues along the entire line of contact.

Bakhmut

Fighting continued north-east and north of Bakhmut, and west of Bakhmut, throughout the weekend but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side. Of note, Russian forces continue to attack from just east of Bila Hora, west of the Donets Canal, and at least one major Ukrainian blogger is showing Russian forces as having cleared out all the terrain east of the Donets canal, south of Bakhmut, and have moved well west of the canal in the area south of Chasiv Yar. If this is accurate, holding Chasiv Yar is going to become difficult, quickly.

Further south, west of Horlivka, Russian forces continued to make small, steady gains into Toretsk, as well as making gains westward - immediately south of Toretsk.

Donetsk City

As of the 27th Russian forces had pushed into the south side of Selydove (south-east of Pokrovsk) even as Russian units just south of the town continue to push westward, moving into position to strike Ukrainian forces in the town on their right flank. Russian forces due east of Pokrovsk also made gains and now are confirmed to be in control of Krasnyi Yar. Russian forces continued action elsewhere, along essentially the entire perimeter of the salient, pushing westward and south-westward, even as Russian forces west of Heorhivka and Hostre continue to push west and north-west. The pocket west of Nevelske (north of Krasnohorivka) is steadily collapsing, though it is not clear how many Ukrainian forces remain inside the pocket.

Russian forces continue to make gains in their effort to circle Vuhledar, moving further westward from the Vodyane area (north of Vuhledar). There were, however, no confirmed gains made into Vuhledar over the weekend, though some Russian reports claimed such gains.

Of note, further west, Russian forces continue to press up the T0509 roadway and are now about 2 miles east of Velyka Novosilke, as well as being less than 2 miles south of that town.

 Southern Ukraine 

Fighting continued across southern Ukraine, particularly north and north-west of Robotyne, as well as along the Dnepr River; there were no confirmed changes to the front line, but there are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have taken control of several islands in the Dnepr, south of Kherson city.

Air operations

This morning  Russia forces launched 1 x  Iskander ballistic missile, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, 1 Kh-31P anti-radiation missile, and 73 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 67 drones and the Kh-59/69 cruise missile; 1 drone flew into Belarus, and 3 drones we’re defeated by electronic warfare.

While the UAF claimed only 2 Shaheds, the Iskander and the Kh-31P managed to get past air defenses, they did report that the power grid was damaged by “falling debris” in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and there were temporary blackouts in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian ammo depot at night on 28 September, near Kotluban (about 30 miles north-north-west of Volgograd) and Ukrainian forces claimed that a shipment of Iranian rockets had just arrived at the facility. 

However, Commercial imagery from 29 September confirmed earlier reports the  that ammo dump was not damaged by the fire. Commercial satellite imagery showed a fire in the general area of the ammo dump but there were no indications of damage on the facility. 

Russian MinDef spokesman claimed Russian forces shot down 125 drones during the night of 28 September.

On the Night of September 28th Russian forces launched 22 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space and the UAF claimed it shot down 15 drones; drones were reported to have hit a school, an unidentified building in Odessa, and, in successive attacks, a hospital in Sumy. At least 6 people were killed and 11 injured in the hospital.

Russian tacair struck infrastructure targets in Zaporizhzhia City on Sunday morning. Totals for the last week included 900 glide bombs, more than 40 missiles and more than 300 x Shahed drones.

On the night of 27 September Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 73 Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed that it shot down 2 x cruise missiles and 69, 3 drones were “lost,” (defeated by electronic warfare) and 1 returned to Russian air space.

The UAF later reported that on the 27th, 2 missiles - not further identified - struck Starokostyantniv, which appears to be an acknowledgment that the 2 x Iskander class missiles hit the air base. This airfield may also have been hit by 2 x Kinzhal missiles pn the 26th.

Russian forces conducted a strike on the night of the 26th consisting of 1 x Iskander-M class ballistic missile,  2 x Kh-22 cruise missiles, and 32 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 24 drones, 1 drone was “lost” (forced down by electronic warfare), and 1 veered off into Romanian air space. There was no immediate report of the damage caused by the 6 dozens that were not shot down, nor was there a report on the drone over Romania.

Aid

Denmark will invest 575 million Euros ($644 million) in the Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base, 30% from the Danish budget, 70% from profits from Russian assets.

Politics and Diplomacy

The Rumor from Kyiv is that LTG Budanov, Director of Defense Intelligence, may be replaced in the near future, to be replaced by Oleh Ivashchenko, current head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. The apparent reason is a personality conflict between Budanov and President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andrei Yermak.

Budanov will reportedly be offered ambassadorial position, but to which country was not known.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep27 Sep30

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 71.75 71.55

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 67.88 67.91

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.73 2.90

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.84 5.80

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 92.87 93.10

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.78 40.89 41.16 41.22

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 67.15 65.72

ESPO  67.02      65 77 77

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 64.97 66.36

Thoughts

Reporting from the Kursk salient has been very conservative but there is some evidence - per some of the bloggers  - that Russian forces are building on the south-east corner of the salient as well as the north-west corner and that the Russian forces have enough assets to drive through the salient and these two forces will meet just inside the Ukrainian border, cutting off Ukrainian forces in Sudzha.

At the same time Russian forces continue their efforts to circle Vuhledar and reportedly asked the Ukrainian commander if he wished to surrender; the Ukrainian refused. Some bloggers are, as of yesterday, showing Vuhledar as being effectively curled, that only a handful of Ukrainians can get in or out on any given day.

Russian forces are also gaining ground around Selydove and unconfirmed reports suggest they have gained ground on the north side of the town, again setting up an encirclement of Ukrainian forces.

The point is that there is little decidedly bad news on the ground for the Russians, and a good deal of potentially bad news for the Ukrainians. 

The weather has begun to change and whether this will slow down the Russian grind or simply inhibit Ukrainian logistics isn’t clear, but it would seem that the next few weeks could see significant changes to the front lines.

v/r pete