September 6th, 2024  Next Summary Monday

Overall  

Ground Operations  - No gains by either side in Kursk Salient

- Fighting continues east of Pokrovsk, no gains

Politics - Ukrainian drone footage shows execution

Weather

Kharkiv

78 and sunny, gusting over 25.  Sunny on Saturday, then partly cloudy for the following 4 days. Daily lows in the mid50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

82 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 25. Partly cloudy for the next 4 days; daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

75 and clear, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny for the next 4 days. Daily lows into low 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues along most of the perimeter of the salient, and there were several small, confirmed gains by each side, with Ukrainian forces apparently having made some small gains to the south-east of Subzha in the last few days, while Russian forces north of Subzha, near the town of Pogrebki (3 mies north of Malaya Loknya or 12 miles north of Subzha) also had confirmed gains. The Russian defensive positions north of the incursion appear to have anchored the defensive lines and it would seem that, short of large addition of new forces, the Ukrainian incursion has reached its maximum extent. 

North of Kharkiv

The give and take continues in the two small incursions north and north-east of Kharkiv; Ukrainian forces have retaken terrain near Lyptsi (due north of Kharkiv) while Russian forces remain on the attack near Hlyboke (also due north of Kharkiv) and in the Vovchansk area (north-east of Kharkiv. 

North of the Donets River

Forces remain engaged along virtually the entire line of contact from Kupyansk to the Donets River; Russian forces continued to squeeze out small gains in the vicinity of Pishchane (about 12 miles south-east of Kupyansk).

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north, north-east and west of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains in any of these areas.

Immediately south of Balkhmut, in the Klishchivka area, Russian forces have pushed westward and in some area have reached the Donets canal. Unconfirmed reports continue to claim that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from east of the canal.

Russian forces continued to press on Torestsk as well as trying to gain full control of Niu York, but there were no confirmed gains in either area. However, there are unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian element trapped in the pocket in the middle of Niu York is in the process of breaking out to the north.

Donetsk City

The fighting continues west of Donetsk, and Russian forces continue to press on Seldove and several other small towns in that area (south-east of Pokrovsk), but there were no confirmed gains in the last two days.  Air strikes on Pokrovsk have increased during the last 2 days.

To the south, Russian forces appear to have now entered the small village of Zolota Nyva (about 11 miles west of Vuhledar, 7 miles south-east of Velyka Novosilke)  though this has not been confirmed.

 Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Fighting was reported in the general area south of Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed changes along the line of contact.

Along the Dnepr, Russian forces were confirmed to have gained some positions on islands in the Dnepr River. This has been a fairly regular occurrence over the past year, with Russian forces landing on an island, setting up several observation posts, and then Ukrainian forces landing and driving them off over a time line that last from several days to several weeks. Neither side has the manpower and logistics support to seize and hold an island.

Air Operations

Final casualty count on missile strike on Poltava military institute and nearby hospital on Tuesday is 55 killed and 328 injured.

This morning Russian forces launched 5 x Iskander class ballistic missiles into the city of Pavlohrad (a city about 30 mies east of Dnipro, Ukraine), striking energy infrastructure targets in the area but also injuring more than 50 civilians and killing at least 1. Drone strikes were also noted in the Odessa region but there were no details provided.

Prime Minister Shmyhal commented that the Russians are preparing another large-scale attack on energy infrastructure

 

On the night of September 4th Russian forces launched 

1 x Iskander ballistic missile

78 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. 

The UAF claimed it shot down 60 drones, defeated 15 drones with electronic warfare, 2 drones returned to Russian airspace, and 1 flew into Belarus airpspace.

Russian strikes on the night of the 3rd focused on Kryvyi Rih and Lviv, and now are tallied to have included:

2 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles

2 x Kh-22 cruise missiles

6 x Kh-101 cruise missiles

3 x Iskander cruise missiles

29 x Shahed drones.

The UAF claimed it shot down:

4 x Kh-101

3 x Isklander cruise missiles 

22 x Shaheds

6 x Shaheds were reportedly defeated with electronic warfare.

Ukrainian local governments reported Russian missiles (not further identified) damaged a hotel, several apartment buildings, 4 schools, and other facilities in Kryvyi Rih. Lviv reported damage to 188 buildings but did not further clarify.

4 x Ukrainian surface drones (USVs were reportedly sighted off of Novorossiysk last night; 2 drones were destroyed and Russians truces said there was no damage to any ships or port facilities . 4 similar drones were sighted and destroyed west of Sevastopol during the night of the 4th. 

Aid

The Dutch Defense Minister announced that the Netherlands will provide 80 million Euro ($86 million) in a parts and maintenance support package to Ukraine to support their F-16 force.

Canada announced a new aid package for Ukraine including:

80,840 x engines for CRV-7 (2.75 inch) missiles

1,300 warheads

960 x C6 machine guns

10,500 x 9mm pistols

29 x M113 tracked armored personnel carriers

64 x Coyote light armored personnel carriers

Secretary of Defense Austin announced a $250 million aid package focused on air defense and artillery ammunition, including:

RIM-7 missiles and support for air defence

Stinger missiles

HIMARS ammunition

155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition

TOW, Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank missiles,

Bradley infantry fighting vehicles

M113 armored personnel carriers

Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles

Small arms ammunition

The UK will provide 650 lightweight multi-role missiles worth 162 million pounds ($213 million)

Politics and Diplomacy

CNN has released a video - footage from a Ukrainian drone - which appears to show 3 Ukrainian soldiers surrendering and then being shot by Russian forces.

The 3 men emerge from a shelter, surrender, are directed to kneel with their hands on their heads, and then are shot.

New appointments to various Ukrainian offices have been announced:

Andrii Sybiha as Foreign Minister (former First Deputy Foreign Minister)

Herman Smetanin as Strategic Industries Minister (former Head of Ukraine's state-owned defense enterprise Ukroboronprom)

Olha Stefanishyna as Justice Minister (former Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration)

Oleksiy Kuleba as Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Minister (former  Presidential Office Deputy Head)

Nataliya Kalmykova as Veterans Affairs Minister (Deputy Defense Minister)

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep4 Sep6

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 73.03 72.82

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 69.63 69.27

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.21 2.27

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 89.15 90.31

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.75

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 70.93 69.14

ESPO  67.02      74.63 77.00

SOKOL 70.82 66.47 66.23

Thoughts

As discussed on Wednesday, the Russian effort west of Donetsk appears to be focused on both taking Pokrovsk, and of pressing into the terrain south of the Pokrovsk salient, straightening the line and preventing any possible Ukrainian pincer to cut off Russia forces. Of note, the Russians are using the same effort to push west of Vuhledar and also to close up on the O-0532 roadway that runs form Vuhledar to Marinka (south-west of Donetsk City). 

IF (always IF) the Russians can close up on these lines, they will straighten their lines, and consolidate their positions behind a line that runs roughly from the Prechystivka - Zolota Nyva area (west of Vuhledar) to Heorhivka (west of Marinka), to Krasnohorivka (just a bit further to the north-east), then a more or less straight line to Ukrainsk, to Seldove, to Pokrovsk. 

IF the Russians can take the logistics hub of Pokrovsk (the Russians are already hitting it daily with artillery) AND they also take Vuhledar, which has acted as the Ukrainian “anchor” to both the Ukrainian eastern defensive line and the Ukrainian southern defensive line, the Ukrainian line will be substantially more difficulty to hold and the Russians could find themselves rolling west to take essentially all of Zaprorishia east of the Dnepr, as well as the rest of southern Donetsk Oblast.

Meanwhile President Zelenskyy called for more long-range weapons to strike deep targets in Russia, and as Gen. Syrskyi asserts that the Kursk incursion prevented a planned Russian incursion into the Sumy area. That may be true, but the slow flow of Russian combat forces to block the Ukrainian incursion suggests that the Russian forces weren’t as close as Syrskyi suggests. 

Syrskyi is also engaged in some interesting polemics: he said that the Russians hadn’t advanced one foot towards Pokrovsk in the last 6 days, which is technically true for those forces due east of Pokrovsk. But Russian forces to the south-east are advancing, closing up the terrain to the south-east and pressuring Pokrovsk, even as artillery and battlefield rockets strike the town itself.

This all reduces to available manpower (trained manpower in particular). If the Russian losses are as large as often stated, and the Ukrainian losses as light, it would seem that the Russians would soon run out of manpower and these attacks will culminate. But, if the Ukrainian manpower losses are more severe, as I fear they are, then my own take on this is that the Ukrainians need to focus on the tactical and operational picture inside Ukraine, which is clearly favorable to the Russians right now, and put everything into stopping the Russian advance on Pokrovsk and points south.

What now remains is to watch for additional Russian forces being moved into the Kursk area to reduce the incursion. Given Russian successes in both stopping the Kursk incursion and continuing the gains west and south-west of Donetsk, I would think it likely that the Russians will take their time in eliminating the incursion, adding troops slowly but working to keep the Ukrainian forces committed to the Kursk salient, rather than letting these forces be withdrawn, replaced by less capable units, and letting these more capable Ukrainian units be sent south toward the Pokrovsk area. It would seem that the Russians would want to keep them engaged and make replacement and withdrawal as difficult as possible, while more capable Russian units will remain committed to the Pokrovsk attack as well as operations immediately west and north of Vuhledar, and to continue to exploit the situation around and south of Pokrovsk.

v/r pete