September 4th, 2024  No Summary Tomorrow

Overall  

Ground Operations  - No gains by either side in Kursk Salient

- Russia continues gaining ground east of Prokrovsk 

Politics  - Ukrainian government reshuffle

Weather

Kharkiv

83 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20.  Cloudy tomorrow, then partly to mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs around 80. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

77 and sunny, gusting over 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend, with the exception of Saturday morning, which will see some sun. Daily lows mid 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

80 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 25. Mostly cloudy tomorrow, then sunny into next week. Daily lows into the mid 50s by the weekend, daily highs around 80. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient 

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces claimed any gains in the Kursk salient, and Russian bloggers suggest the Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions and digging in.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues around both Vovchansk and Hlyboke, but there were no changes in the lines.

North of the Donets

Fighting continues along virtually the entire line of contact and there are multiple claims of Russian gains, but few confirmations. However, it does appear that Russian forces have taken the small town of Stelmakhivka (due west of Svatove) and that they continue to press westward, from the general area just west of Pishchane (north-west of Svatove).

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut, but, despite multiple claims of Russian gains, there has been no confirmation of any changes in the lines.

The same is true on the eastern edge of Chasiv Yar: multiple reports of Russian gains but the gains remain unconfirmed.

Immediately south of Bakhmut there were multiple reports yesterday that Ukrainian forces were withdrawing from the area of Klishchivka and Andrivka, but this too has not materialized.

To the south - west of Horlivka - Russian forces made marginal gains in eastern Toretsk, and the Russian forces appear to gained control of the last north-west corner of Druzhba, though this hasn’t been confirmed yet.

Donetsk City

Russian forces east of Pokrovsk continue to slowly grind generally westward. Perhaps more importantly, Russian forces from the general area of Krasnohorivka, and from there counter-clockwise around the edge of the Salient, continue to press forward and, when viewed over the course of the past week or two, the pocket south of the Russian salient is slowly closing up and the Russian line is straightening out.  

About 26,000 of Pokrovsk’s 40,000 residents are estimated to remain in the city.

At the same time Russian forces push west, and the small town of Halysynivka (just west of the Karlivka reservoir) has now been taken by the Russians, as has Novohrodivka, on the south-east “corner” of the salient.

To the south-west of Donetsk unconfirmed reporting suggests that Russian forces continue to make small gains in and just west of Krasnohorivka, and fighting continues west of Heorhivka. 

Unconfirmed, pro-Russian reporting continues to reflect Russian gains west of Vuhledar along a fairly broad front from the general area of Pavlivka (a large town 2 miles south of Vuhledar) along the T-0509 roadway westward all the way to Prechystivka, to include Russian forces pressing into Prechystivka, and that that town is now controlled by Russian forces. Both towns are shown as under Russian control by pro-Ukraine web sites as well. Russian forces are also active north of Vuhledar at the coal mines, and in the general area of Vodyane, in what appears to be an effort to encircle and cut off Vuhledar. Again, these reports are unconfirmed, but the gist of the reporting has remained consistent over the past week.

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Fighting was reported on the east bank of the Dnepr River and across the southern lint of contact, particularly in the general area south of Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain. Both sides have prioritized operations elsewhere and operations in this area appear to consist mainly of squad level probes, sniping and artillery and suicide drone exchanges.

Air Operations

On the strike yesterday in Poltava, the classroom building of the “Military Communications Institute” was hit by an Iskander class ballistic missile (Iskander class as the Russians appear to have fully integrated Korean KN-23 missiles, into their arsenal; the KN-23 is very similar but not identical to the Iskander) and the hospital may have been hit by a second missile or the missile struck immediately next to the hospital, but most of the casualties took place at the Institute. 

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike of Migalovo airfield on the night of 02 September; Migalovo is outside of Tver City (75 miles north-west of Moscow), and is the home field of the 12th Military Transport Division (AN-22, IL-76, and AN-124 aircraft). There have been no reports on the damage sustained.

Early on the 4th Russian forces struck in and around Lviv, causing more damage to civilian structures. It was not immediately clear what the Russian were attempting to hit.ben killed, and 38 wounded, and more than 50 buildings were damaged; but later local government statements suggested that railway infrastructure was the target.

Politics and Diplomacy

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba submitted his resignation this morning. Part of a major turnover of leadership under President Zelenskyy.

Other recent resignations include:

• Strategic Industries Minister Kamyshin
• Justice Minister Maliuska
• Ecology Minister Strelets
• Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Stefanishya
• Deputy Prime Minister and Reintegration Minister Vereshchuk 
• Head of the State Property Fund, Vitalii Koval
• Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Shurma

President Zelenskyy commented:

"The autumn will be extremely important for Ukraine. Our state institutions must be set up so that Ukraine achieves all the results that we need, We must strengthen some areas in the government and personnel decisions have been prepared.”

One-third of cabinet positions are now vacant.

President Putin concluded his trip to Mongolia and has returned to Moscow.

German Chancellor Scholz announced that Germany has ordered 17 x IRIS-T SAM systems (short and medium range surface-to-air missile systems) for transfer to Ukraine. The systems would be delivered in 2025 and 2026.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep3 Sep4

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 75.57 73.03

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 72.16 69.63

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.19 2.21

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 88.59 89.15

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.52 5.67

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 74.08 70.93

ESPO  67.02      74.63 74.00 77.00

SOKOL 70.82 69.84 66.47

The Ukrainian government has restructured its Eurobond debts, exchanging $24 billion of Eurobonds for a news series worth $15.2 billion. with an agreed debt devaluation of of 37%, which includes a reduction in debt payments by 93%, which will save Ukraine $11.4 billion over the next 3 years.

Prices for ESPO and Sokol oil is for contracts with China; we have the interesting situation that Russian oil, under US and EU sanctions, is in some cases actually selling for more than some Western crude oil.

Thoughts

Despite the precarious situation around Pokrovsk, which has arguably been exacerbated by the shifting of forces to the Kursk incursion, Kiev is defending the incursion with the argument that Russian forces are about to run out of men and that even if Russia were to take Pokrovsk they don’t have the manpower to exploit it, that the Russian army’s strategic reserves are essentially empty.

This may well be so. It may also be so for Ukraine.

There have been no reliable figures for casualties for quite some time, but my own estimates put Russian figures in the neighborhood of 85,000 KIA and 300,000 WIA, with Ukrainian figures in the neighborhood of 100,000 KIA and 350,000 WIA.

While that would still give Ukraine something on the order of 600,000 personnel in uniform, the number who have adequate training in infantry tactics would be just a fraction of that number and very possibly only a small fraction of that number. The numbers of trained Russian soldiers won’t be substantially better, but the Russians have 4 times as many people; attrition warfare with a larger country is a dangerous game - one that Ukraine has been playing for a while now and it may be catching up to them. Despite all the questions on flow of weapons and deep strike, etc., the question of Pokrovsk, and what happens if Pokrovsk falls, seems to really be a manpower question, a question for which there may be an answer very soon.

v/r pete