September 11th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Ukrainian gains in Kursk Salient

- Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Economics - Russian Defense Industries 

Weather

Kharkiv

81 and cloudy.  Mostly cloudy through Friday, then sunny for 4 days. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

83 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy tomorrow, sunny Friday and Saturday, windy Sunday and Monday. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts into Saturday, then easterly and windy, 20-25kts.

Kyiv

79 and mostly cloudy, gusting past 20. Mostly cloudy for the next 7 days; daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs around 80. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Ukrainian forces had confirmed gains on the western edge of the salient in the vicinity of both Vetreno and Komarovka. Vetreno is just east of Korenevo, Komarovka is just to the south of Korenevo; Russian forces continued to hold Korenevo, and Russian forces have reportedly set up a pontoon bridge over the Seim River and are moving forces into the area from the west. The Ukrainian advance near Vetreno is just south-east of that little village, along a narrow path which appears to be between two small reservoirs. 

On the east side of the salient Ukrainian forces made confirmed gains about 7 miles north-east of Subzha in the small town Russkoye Porechnoye (northeast of Sudzha). Russian reporting claims that fighting is talking place at multiple spots on both sides of the salient.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues in both pockets north of Kharkiv but neither side gained any ground nor made claims that they gained any ground.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along most of the line of contact, and Russian forces appear to have made small gains in the vicinity of Makiivka (south-west of Svatove, on the Zherebets River), apparently on the west side of the River.

Bakhmut

North and north-east of Bakhmut Russian forces appear to have made small gains to the north-west of Bilohorivka, between that town and the Donets River. Additional gains were made by Russian forces just to the south, and also Russian forces appear to be pressing on Vyimka area from the south.

West of Bakhmut, Russian forces appear to have made some gains on the north side of Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces claiming that they have now occupied the town of Hryhorivka, about 2.5 miles north of Chasiv Yar, still on the east side of the Donets Canal, but this is still not confirmed.

Reporting still reflects Russian activity “east of Bila Hora,” with Bila Hora located 2 miles west of the Donets canal, suggesting Russian probes are moving back and forth across the canal in this area. Russian forces continue to push west from the Klishchivka area and may have reached the canal.

East of Horlivka Russian forces continue to slowly push westward inside Toretsk, with claims of nearly a kilometer advance in Toretsk and a half a kilometer in Niu York, but those claims have not been confirmed.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to grind forward east and south-east of Pokrovsk. Russian forces have pushed through Mykhailivka and are pushing westward toward Selydove. The Russian forces are closing up on the E-50 / M04 roadway from the east, terrain east of that road is now being consolidated and several towns immediately to the west have been taken already. Only in the area immediately south of Pokrovsk have the Russian not closed on that road; Russian forces have pushed through Novohrodivka and are perhaps a mile west and north-west of that town, leaving them less than 5 miles from the south-east corner of Pokrovsk and perhaps 4 miles from the north-south segment of M04 roadway as it enters Pokrovsk. 

West of Donetsk, south of the Pokrovsk salient, imagery confirms that, as of yesterday, Russian forces had pushed into the western end of Krasnohorivka, taking control of the entire town, and leaving a gap of about 5 miles between the northern and southern “jaws” that would close out that pocket to the east. Ukrainian forces will need to make the decision to withdraw forces from that pocket, or potentially DIP.
Further to the south-west Russian forces are continued to press westward between Marinka and Vuhledar and continue to close on the O0532 roadway. Imagery confirms the Russians are north-west of Pobieda (just south-west of Marinka) and have taken Vodyane, and are closing up the last open terrain east of the roadway. West of Vuhledar Russian forces remain on the attack and are reportedly making small gains around Prechysivka.

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Fighting continues in the area just south of Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed gains by the Russian forces. Ukrainian sources have noted, however, that there has been an increase in the last several days of tactical air support to Russian forces in the general Orikhiv area. There was no new reporting on activity along the Dnepr River.

Air Operations

Russian forces on the morning of the 11th launched at least 25 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace; the UAF claimed it shot down 20 drones.

The Russian strike on the night of the 9th consisted of 1 x Iskander class ballistic missile, 1 x Kh-31P anti-radiation cruise missile, and 46 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 38 drones, that 2 drones flew into Russian airspace, and 3 drones were defeated by electronic warfare. The damage resulting from the ballistic missile, cruise missile and 3 drones was not given.

Politics and Aid

Lithuania has provided 10 million  Euros ($11 million) for the Palianytsia missile drone. The Paliantysia is a low cost (less than $1 million) drone built in Ukraine. It carries roughly a 45lb warhead, at low speeds (100 mph), about 450 miles.

Latvian Prime Minister Siliņa announced another aid package to Ukraine, which will include armored personnel carriers and more drones. Latvia transferred 500 drones to Ukraine in August.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep10 Sep11

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 71.31 70.70

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 68.23 67.37

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.24 2.24

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 91.20 91.45

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.69 5.74

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 66.29 64.26

ESPO  67.02      65 65

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 64.83 64.83

Russian Defense Industries

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, in a September 9th report, notes that Russia has expanded its defense industrial base (DIB) capabilities since 2022 and that there is now little worry among Russians of their depleting weapons and equipment stockpiles. Per the Kiel Institute, between 2022 and 2024, production has increased as noted:

- Tanks up 215% (123 to 387 per quarter)

- Armored vehicle up 141% (585 to 1,409 per quarter)

- Artillery tubes up 149% (45 to 112 per quarter)

- Short range air defense systems up 200% (9 to 38 per quarter)

- Medium and long range air defense systems up 100% (6 to 12 per quarter) 

- Lancet loitering munition up 475% (93 to 535 per quarter)

The Kiel institute noted that 80% of armored vehicle and tank production is retrofitting, not new production, but predicted that by 2026 Russia will be opening new production lines and there will not be a shortfall, that by 2026 Russia will be able to produce at least 350 modern tanks per year.

They also noted that Russia is working to expand ammunition production and, with the assistance of North Korea are currently firing 10,000 shells (120MM mortar, 122MM and 152MM)  per day, and they can sustain this use rate.

Thoughts

Discussions continue as to whether the US will allow Ukraine to use US weapons to strike deep targets inside Russia, and President Biden has stated that it is being considered.

Secretary of State Blinken and British Foreign Secretary Lammy will be in Kyiv together to meet with President Zelenskyy to discuss further support to Ukraine.

If the past provides any hint, the Administration will eventually allow the use of those weapons to their full range and capabilities.

Meanwhile, it is disappointing that more than 2 years into the war the US and the West are struggling with weapons and systems and ammunition output while the Russians somehow seem to have gotten economically healthier (or at least more capable) as the war progresses.

Yesterday there were credible western reports of Russians meeting and passing their recruiting goals, even as some reports suggest Ukraine is facing moral problems, enlistment problems and a real manpower crunch; today reports suggest the Russian  industrial base is responding to and apparently meeting Ministry of Defense requirements… 

v/r pete