September 17th, 2024 

Overall  

Putin Statement

Ground Operations  - Russian, Ukrainian gains in Kursk Salient

- More Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Politics & Diplomacy - Bigger Russian Army

Personnel Losses

Weather

Kharkiv

78 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 25.  Cloudy on Thursday, followed by 4 days of sun. Daily lows near 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

79 and cloudy, rain later tonight, gusting over 30. Cloudy and windy through Thursday afternoon, then several days of sun. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds easterly, 15-20kts.

Kyiv

79 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy tomorrow and into Thursday, then mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows near 50, may dip in to the upper 40s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Both Ukrainian and Russian forces had confirmed gains around the Kursk salient, with the bulk of the combat on the west side of the salient, and in points further west along the border.

Ukrainian forces continue operations south-west of Glushkovo  and south-east of Veseloye, both well west of the salient, and south of the Seim River (the two towns are essentially due north of Sumy, on the Russian side of the border). At the same time, imagery confirms that Russian forces are active in the Veseloye area, attempting to block Ukrainian movement.

To the north-east, along the western edge of the salient, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged small pieces of terrain south of Korenevo. It isn’t really clear what is happening as the reporting is often contradictory, but it appears that, as more Russian forces move into the area the Ukrainians are attempting to both counter-attack and not stay tied to a given piece of terrain, giving up one piece of terrain and moving to another. Maintaining the logistics support to these front line Ukrainian units will be the challenge as more Russian forces move in and the Ukrainian mobile defense gets more difficult.

On the east side of the salient Russian forces also were active near Malaya Loknya and may have retaken some of the terrain in that area.

North of Kharkiv

Ukrainian forces made gains in Vovchansk, pushing back into the aggregate factory in the center of that town. Elsewhere, fighting continued but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continued along the length of the line of contact, with Russian forces making confirmed gains at two separate points: near the small town of Makiivka, south-west of Svatove, on the Zherebets RIver, and north-west of Svatove in the Pishchane area. In the Makiivka area Russian forces are now clearly operating west of the Zherebets River, and in the Pishchane area Russian forces have pushed westward and are now within a mile of the Oskil River. Crossing the Zherebets is first step, the real tactical goal is the Oskil Rover, to close on that river and push the Ukrainians back across it. For the Ukrainians, holding terrain on the east side of the river prevents the Russians from building a much more difficult defensive perimeter

Bakhmut

North and north-east of Bakhut Russian forces were active near Siversk but there were no confirmed gains or lose so terrain.

Russian forces made gains south of Chasiv Yar and appear to have crossed the Donets canal just a bit north of due west from Klishchivka, a spot where the canal is covered by a land bridge for about 1500 feet, and the Russian forces are moving in the direction of Stupochky, a bit more than 2 miles further west.

Russian forces remain active west of Horlivka, in the Toretsk area, but there were no confirmed gains. Some sites still reflect Ukrainian elements of undetermined size retaining a hold on part of the industrial area of northern Niu York.

Donetsk City

There was some give and take east of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces have confirmed gains just west side of Mykhailivka (just east of Selydove, south-east of Pokrovsk) stalling the Russian push into Selydove; the front line now lies on the rail line that runs north-south just to west of Mykhailivka.

Elsewhere in the area east and south-east of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to grind out gains, pushing further south-west and slowly closing up the pocket that sits south of the salient, west of Nevelske. Russian forces on the south side of the pocket, pushing west from  Krasnohorivka, have reached the Lazova river, and the distance across the mouth of the pocket, northward to Russian positions in the small town of Zhelanne Pershe, is now about 4 miles.  Other Russian activity was reported along most of the southern  and western edge of the salient, and Russian forces continue to close on Pokrovsk from the Krasny Yar area, just a few miles south-east of Pokrovsk.

Russian force were reported to be active in the general area of Heorhivka and further west but there were no confirmed changes in terrain held along the line in this area.

South-west of Donetsk City Russian forces continue pushing west from the O-0532 roadway and have begun to move into the Pivdennodobaska #3 coal mine, west of Vodyane. Operations continue along that line up to the general Marinka area and down to Vuhledar and west of Vuhledar to the vicinity of Zolota Nyva. At the same time there are unconfirmed reports of Russina forces active in the Makarivka and Novodarivka area  - south and south-west of Velyka Novosilke respectively, suggesting Russian forces in this general area are once again on the attack.

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Unconfirmed reporting notes Russian probes in the Kamyanske area (along the Dnepr River, due west of Orikhiv), and there is additional reporting on activity along the Dnepr in the Kherson area, as well as active south of Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain by either side in any of these areas.

Air Operations

Russian forces launched an unstated number of Shahed drones on power grid related targets in eastern Russia last night, and at least 4 ballistic missiles (probably S-300s) against power grid and power infrastructure targets in the Sumy area this morning and power has been cut to several cities; water service was available but pressure had fallen considerably. Fires were reported at two substations.

Russian forces launched 56 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace on the night go 15 September; the UAF claimed it shot down 53 drones, and that the remaining 3 drones were “lost,” causing no damage. Russian bloggers claimed that Russian drones struck an airbase, a drone production facility and a drone storage warehouse.

President Zelenskyy commented on the 13th that Russia has used some 4,000 glide bombs per month in eastern Ukraine. This is higher than earlier reported figures.

Politics

The Verkhovna Rada passed a bill yesterday that will allow foreigners to serve as officers in the Ukrainian army.

President Putin signed a decree yesterday to increase the size of Russia’s forces by 180,000 troops, bringing Russian army uniformed strength to 1,500,000 soldiers and total uniformed strength to 2,400,000.

The Russian Air Force, Russian Navy, Russian Air Defense Force and the Logistics Force each have roughly 170,000, the Strategic Rocket Forces and Space Force about 50,000 each.

Personnel Losses

The Wall Street Journal reports that total casualties in the war now exceeds 1 million with numbers for the Russians at 400,000 WIA and as many as 200,000 KIA for a total loss of 600,000.

Ukrainian numbers are estimated at 80,000 killed and 400,000 via.

The Ukrainian General Staff estimates that total Russian casualties stands at  635,880 personnel.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep16 Sep17

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 72.94 72.63

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 69.89 70.13

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.30 2.37

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.95 5.79

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 91.21 91.16

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 41.48 41.47

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 67.61 67.86

ESPO  67.02      65 77 77

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 65.54 66.33

Thoughts

As a general rule, Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) casualty estimates, when they have bumped up against confirmed numbers, have been at least 20% high and in some cases much higher. But overall, the UGS number for total casualties is a reasonable number. 

My estimate, based on a number of data points as well as comparisons with the Mediazone numbers (which places Russian KIAs in the range of 69,000 - 120,000 KIA), puts Russian KIA at 90,000 KIA and WIA as 3.5 to 4 times that number (315,000 - 360,000). This yields a total figure of 405,000 to 450,000 casualties.

Ukrainian numbers are more difficult to come by, but based on a wide range of data - graveyard activity, numbers of amputees, polls of losses among Ukrainian citizens, as well as anecdotal reporting - I believe the Ukrainian numbers are higher than the Russian numbers, perhaps 110,000 KIA and 385,000 - 440,000 WIA, a total casualty figure of 495,000 to 550,000.

This places total in uniform casualties for the war between 790,000 and 890,000; civilian casualties are simply unknown.

Of note, a rough rule of thumb that I have seen used before is that 70% of WIAs will not return to duty. Using that number on the wounded gives the following total numbers for total number of permanent personnel losses (KIA + 70% WIA):

For Ukraine: 380,000 - 420,000

For Russia:      310,000 - 340,000

As a reminder, 345,000 represents 1% of the Ukrainian population, but would amount to 0.2% of the Russian population 

v/r pete