September 16th, 2024 

Overall  

Putin Statement

Ground Operations  - Russian, Ukrainian gains in Kursk Salient

- More Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Politics & Diplomacy - More F-16s this year

Weather

Kharkiv

80 and sunny, gusting over 25.  Partly cloudy or cloudy until Thursday after sunrise, then several days of sun. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

80 and cloudy, gusting over 30. Cloudy and windy through Thursday afternoon, then several days of sun. Daily lows in the upper 70s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds easterly, 15-20kts.

Kyiv

80 and sunny, gusting over 30. Mostly sunny for the next 5 days, daily lows in the low near 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Ukrainian forces had marginal gains in the Kursk salient, to include some terrain just north of Sudzha, and have picked up some terrain further west, near Tetkino and Novyi Put. Russian forces meanwhile have retaken terrain south of Korenevo and continue to expand that position to the east. Ukrainian and Russian forces were active on the eastern side and north-east corner of the salient and both made marginal gains of terrain. All told, Russian forces have recaptured terrain on virtually the entire perimeter of the salient. However, the Ukrainian move across the border further west is acting as a foil to the Russian move to contain this campaign. 

Kharkiv City

Fighting continues in both pockets (north and north-east of Kharkiv) but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces continue to grind out small gains west and north-west of Svatove, making small gains over the weekend in the Stelmakhivka area  and continuing operations across the Zherebets near Makiivka. Elsewhere fighting continued the length of the line of contact.

Bakhmut

North of Bakhmut Russian forces continue to make gains east of Siversk and north-west of Bilohorivka, as well as south-east of Siversk near the tiny town of Vyimka. 

West of Bakhmut the Russians had no gains over the weekend in Chasiv Yar area, but retain the foothold on the west side of the Donets Canal, north of Chasiv Yar.

Just south of Bakhmut Russian forces appear to have consolidated gains west of Klishchivka, and that town is reportedly now being used as a staging area  by the Russians for operations further to the west.

Further south, east of Horlivka, Russian forces continue to push into Toretsk, and marginal gains were claimed in Toretsk, as well as north and south of the town. In Niu York there are conflicting reports on the Ukrainians that occupied the pocket in the industrial area of the town, whether they withdrew, were overrun, or still hold the area; that may sort itself out this week.

Donetsk City

There were more reports of gains by Russian forces long virtually the entire perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient, but there was no confirmation of any of the gains. Nevertheless, the gains are credible and it appears that Russian forces have pushed through Lysivka (about 3 miles south-south-east of Pokrovsk) and are about a mile from the M04 / E50 roadway as it runs due north into Pokrovsk. Further south Russian forces appear to have pushed through Ukrainsk and are pushing on Selydove. To the south-east Russian forces continue to press west and south, and the pocket west of Nevelske is getting more risky for any Ukrainian forces left inside as the ground line of communication (GLOC) into that pocket has been reduced to open fields and a few single lane dirt roads along the perimeters of the fields. 

On the southern edge of that pocket Russian forces pushing west from Heorhivka have entered Maksymilyanivka.

Further south (south-west from Donetsk City), from Vuhledar to Marinka Russian forces are west of the O0532 roadway and are in the process of pushing west beyond Vodyane to the Pivdennodobaska #3 coal mine, are circling Vuhledar, are pushing west on the T0509 roadway, and are pressing on Zolota Nyva, 7 miles east of Velyka Novosilke, 8-9 miles west of Vuhledar. Vuhledar’s GLOC has been reduced to a large and a small dirt road.

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River 

There was continued fighting in the Orikhiv area, as well as along the Dnepr River. Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian probes into Kamyanske (along the Dnepr), though this has not been confirmed. This may in part be an effort to keep the Ukrainian forces off balance, after several Russian units were moved to the Kursk salient.

At the same time, the Ukrainian General Staff reports increased Russian activity in the lower Dnepr River, and that fighting is taking place on several islands in the river, to include Bilohrudyi Island (below Kherson City), and Kazatsky Island and Melkyi Island (both upriver from Kherson).

Maritime Operations

Commercial satellite imagery of the 14th shows that the Russian Navy has departed the port of Novorossiysk (about 45 miles down the Black Sea coast from the Kerch bridge), with reportedly 16 vessels now unallocated that had previously been in port.

Air Operations

On the night of the 14th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-59 cruise missile, and 14 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The Iskander struck Odessa, killing two; the UAF claimed they shot down the Kh-59 and 10 of the 14 drones.

There were no other damage reports.

Russian forces claimed they shot down 29 x Ukrainian drones launched by the Ukrainians into Russian air space on Saturday night. They reported no damage.

Russian forces launched 76 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace on the 13th; the UAF claimed that it shot down 72 drones, 2 failed to reach their targets and crashed, and 2 returned to Russian airspace.

Russian forces launched 26 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space on the 12th. The UAF claimed it shot down 24 drones, and that 2 drones penetrated air defenses, with one striking a residential area in Odessa and the other hitting an industrial facility in Ivano-Frankivsk and causing a fire.

Politics

President Zelenskyy told an interviewer that Ukrainian forces were suffering high losses in combat due to the slow delivery of weapons from the west, and further commented that 1/2 of Ukraine’s brigades were not fully equipped.

Denmark’s MinDef Poulsen announced that Denmark would transfer more F-16s to Ukraine before the end of the year; Denmark has promised 19 x F-16s. Several countries have promised F-16s to Ukraine; Denmark has already delivered at least 6 aircraft and at least another 6 are believed to have already been delivered.  An F-16 was shot down on August 26th, apparently by “friendly fire” while it was trying to shoot down incoming cruise missiles.

Diplomacy

Ukraine and Russia conducted two POW exchanges, the first on September 13th, each transferring 49 POWs, and the second on the 14th, each releasing 103 POWS; the swaps were mediated by the UAE.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep13 Sep16

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 72.51 72.94

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 69.52 69.89

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.37 2.30

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.79 5.95

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 91.11 91.21

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 41.48

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 67.73 67.61

ESPO  67.02      65 77

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 65.54 65.54

Thoughts

As a general rule Zelenskyy never talks about casualties except in the broadest sense. To state that the Ukrainian forces are suffering large numbers of casualties suggests a real concern not simply with the number of casualties but also with the supply of weapons, my guess is that the Ukrainian army is facing more of the “usual” shortages: surface to air missiles, artillery ammunition (particularly 155MM howitzer ammo), and basic weapons and gear for outfitting the soldiers as they try to refit older units that have already suffered high combat casualties, and as standing up new units.

At the same time, it is probable that the Ukrainian army is facing shortages not of soldiers in the broadest sense, but in trained soldiers, as the casualty rates exceed the training “through-put.” My best estimate (and a lot of this is guesswork) is that the Ukrainian army is currently suffering 100 - 150 KIAs per day and 350 - 600 WIAs per day. While there are a host of variables, a rough rule of thumb is that 70% of wounded will not return to combat status. That would equate to 345 - 570 troops per day (killed and wounded) permanently out of the fight. My best guess fir the Russians is roughly the same figure, perhaps a bit less, a result of the substantially smaller number of artillery rounds fired per day by the Ukrainian army: 75 - 100 KIAs and 250 - 400 WIAs per day, or 250 - 430 troops per day out of the fight.

This equates to more than 10,000 troops per month - minimum - out of the fight, and perhaps 15,000+, while the most optimistic training plans are producing perhaps 5,000 per month.

My numbers are deliberately conservative and may well be off by 25% or more, pushing Ukrainian daily attrition to over 700 per day and Russian attrition to more than 525 per day.

v/r pete