September 13th, 2024 

Overall  

Putin Statement

Ground Operations  - Russian, Ukrainian gains in Kursk Salient

- Ukrainian elements cross border in 2 other spots

- More Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Politics & Diplomacy - No change in US policy on use of US weapons

Weather

Kharkiv

81 and most cloudy, gusting to 20.  Sunny or mostly sunny through Tuesday. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs around 80s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

80 and sunny, gusting near 20. Sunny tomorrow, partly cloudy and windy for the following 4 days. Daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds easterly, 10-20kts.

Kyiv

80 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 25. Rain showers possible later tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next 5 days; daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs around 80. Winds easterly, 10-20kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to attack and continue to trade ground. Russian force appears to be making some small gains on the west side of the salient, particularly in the vicinity of Korenevo. South of this area, between Korenevo and the Russia - Ukraine border, Ukrainian forces made gains in the Glushkovsky district. 

At the same time, two Ukrainian mechanized elements of unknown size has crossed the border about 25 miles further to the west near Tetkino, and 15 miles to the west near Novy Put, but could be as large as a battalion each.

At roughly the same time on the 12th, a Ukrainian HIMARS unit struck another  pontoon bridge over the Seim River, as they work to keep the terrain south of the river isolated, complicating Russian efforts to move forces in to block the Ukrainian movement.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues in both the small, Russian held pockets, particularly near Lyptsi and Hlyboke due north of Kharkiv, and Vovchansk to the north-east, but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces remained active along the entire line of contact, and various Russian reports claimed new gains near Pishchane, but these were not confirmed; there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Bakhmut

North and north-east of Bakhmut fighting continued along most of the line of contact but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

West of Bakhmut Russian forces made small, but confirmed gains north of Chasiv Yar - on the west side of the Donets Canal. This is of note; if the Russians can reinforce these elements they will press on the northern flank of the Ukrainian forces holding Chasiv Yar and potentially break that defense.

Russian forces continued the attack in Toretsk and Niu York, and there are multiple claims of gains in Toretsk by Russian bloggers and additional claims that the small Ukrainian pocket in the industrial zone in northern central Niu York has been taken by the Russians but none of these claims can be confirmed. 

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to gain ground south-east of Pokrovsk. The line due east of Pokrovsk is holding, but Russian forces picked up terrain in Lysivka (just over 3 miles south-south-east of Pokrovsk), as well as gaining ground near Novohrodivka, and in Ukrainsk. Generally, Russians appear to be grinding forward very slowly due east of Pokrovsk, but to the south-east are moving in a broad arc more than 20 miles to Heorhivka, attempting to push first south-west and then west, and sweep up the small towns south of Pokrovsk and encircle the town from the south. And, it does appear to be working, as they seem to hold Ukrainian forces in the hardened lines east and immediately south-east of Pokrovsk but sweep across the less dense defensive positions in the smaller towns to the south-east.

Further to the south (south of the Pokrovsk salient) Russian forces pushed west from Krasnohorivka, and appear to have taken the town of Hostre (about 3 miles north-west of Heorhivka, 5 miles west of Krasnohorivka) and are steadily moving across and closing that pocket. 

Ukrainian reports said that the Russian attack on Hostre included at least 46 armored vehicles which would suggest a mechanized battalion, which is a significant single attack, compared to the manner in which attacks have been conducted over the past year, with repeated platoon sized attacks rather than a larger, organized attack such as a battalion.

Anecdotal reports talk of Ukrainian units withdrawing before they get caught, but there is no hard data on who was in the would-be pocket or who has left. The north and south “jaws” of the pocket are now less than 5 miles apart. 

From the area of Marinka, south past Vodyane and Vuhledar, Russian forces remained on the attack, generally pushing westward to isolate the various towns, and mines, and cut off support to Vuhledar. But there were no confirmed gains or losses in this area.

West of Vuhledar the Ukrainian General Staff notes that Russian forces are pressing on Zolota Nyva (7 miles south-east of Velyka Novosilke, less than 4 miles north-west of Prechystivka).

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River 

Fighting continues along the line of contact in the south and also on many of the islands in the mouth of the Dnepr River, but there are no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

Air Operations

Russia launched 26 x Shahed dozens into Ukrainian airspace last night; and claimed multiple targets hit across Ukraine, from port faculties in Odessa, to a fuel depot near the Posh border, to power infrastructure targets near Kiev. The UAF claimed it shot down 24 drones.

Final count on the Russian air strikes on the night of the night of the 11th: Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, 2 x Kh-22.32 cruise missiles, and 64 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 44 drones, and that 7 others went off course. The UAF also reported that “most missiles missed their targets.” They stated that 1 drone struck part of the power grid in Konotop.

Reporting from the Konotop region was that there was significant damage and the much of the area was without power or water.

The merchant vessel Aya, which was struck by one Kh-22 (AS-4) missile yesterday remained in Constanta Romania as of this morning.

Politics and Diplomacy

National Security Council Spokesman Kirby stated that the US policy on using weapons for deep strikes into Russia has not changed.

"There is no change to our view on the provision of long range strike capabilities for Ukraine to use inside of Russia. I would not expect any major announcement in that regard.”

Kirby also commented on President Putin’s remarks that US and NATO weapons striking deep into Russia represented direct involvement in the war. Kirby stated:

"This is not rhetoric that we haven't heard from him before… the United States was taking those comments seriously.”

Finland announced the transfer military aid to Ukraine worth of 118 million Euros (#131 million), which brings total Finnish aid to 2.3 billion euros (($2.5 billion).

Finland does not disclose the contents of its arms transfers.

The Netherlands transferred a Patriot radar to Ukraine and will deliver 3 Patriot launchers in the near term.

Ukraine and Russia held a prisoner exchange in which each side handed over 49 POWs to the other side. The last transfer was on August 24th when each side handed over 111 POWs.

President Zelenskyy has said that he will hold a seconds peace summit in November, that he will provide a  "a system of interconnected solutions that will give Ukraine enough power -- enough to put this war on a path to peace,” and stated that he would invite Russia to the summit.

Russia has accused 6 British diplomats of spying and is withdrawing their accreditation, which will lead to their being expelled from Russia, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) referring to them as members of MI6.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep12 Sep13

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 71.24 72.51

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 68.00 69.52

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.28 2.37

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 91.26 91.11

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.79 5.79

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 64.23 67.73

ESPO  67.02      65 65

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 64.86 65.54

Thoughts

While there is lots of talk about long range weapons, and deep strike and the rest, the Russian army keeps grinding forward. The rate at which towns to the west and south-west of Donetsk City, and the probable encirclement of  Vuhledar in the several weeks paints a grim picture on the ground. 

It doesn’t help that the Ukrainian propaganda keeps painting the Russians as poorly trained, poorly led, with horrible morale, because that poorly trained, poorly lead army is winning.

In the Kursk salient the Ukrainians made some good initial gains, but the Russians responded, initially with the Russian acknowledged poorly trained border guard, and then regular army units, and they stopped the Ukrainian attack. Inside Ukraine, the Russian army, showing once again that it really doesn't pay much attention to what anyone else is doing, just continues to grind forward. 

Pokrovsk may or may not fall within the next few months - assuming the Ukrainians put up a stubborn defense as they have done before. If the town falls in less than a few months it would seem to suggest that there is an even more serious problem facing the Ukrainian army - and that would be manpower.

Even if they hold Pokrovsk, the city is now less than 10,000 yards from Russian positions. It can be pounded all day with cheap artillery, and its value as a logistics and manpower hub for half of the eastern front is already fading quickly to zero. 

On top of that, Vuheldar may well encircled in the near term, and Russian forces are pushing north-west from that area, as well as pushing north from the Robotyne area. Presumably the Ukrainian General Staff will attempt a winter offensive some time during the November - December time frame. But the front may look substantially different by the time they start the offensive.

v/r pete