September 18th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Russian, Ukrainian no gains in Kursk Salient

- More Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Air Operations  - Toropets Ammo Dump 

Weather

Kharkiv

71 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Sunny tomorrow and through the weekend, daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

72 and partly cloudy, gusting to 30. Cloudy through tomorrow morning, then sunny through Sunday. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

74 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Sunny by late morning and mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Fighting was reported on the western and eastern edges of the salient, as well as near the two smaller incursions west of the Kursk salient, but there were no confirmed gains on either side. Russina sources did claim Russian gains along the western edge but there is no evidence to support the claim. Nevertheless, there is a good deal of reporting of hard fighting by both sides, particularly in the general area south-west of Korenevo.

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces continued ground attacks near Hlyboke (due north of Kharkiv) and in Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv), with more hard fighting taking place in the middle of Vovchansk, in the general area of the aggregate plant in the center of the town, but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain by either side.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues the length of the line of contact, and Russian sources claimed more gains near Pishchane (just south-east of Kupyansk about 12 miles), but these could not be confirmed. The activity around Pishchane is of note as it is the first serious push the Russians have made that appears has a chance of reaching the Oskil River.

Bakhmut

North-east of Bakhmut fighting continues east and south-east of Siversk, but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

West of Bakhmut, around Chasiv Yar, there were no confirmed gains by either side. Pro-Ukrainian sources continue to reflect that Russian sources have made it across the Donets canal both north and south of Chasiv Yar proper, and that the Russian elements west of Kuridomivka continue to slowly increase their foothold. While there are some variations, most reporting shows the terrain controlled by the Ukrainians west of Klishchivka is shrinking as the Russians squeeze.

Further south, west of Horlivka, Russian forces were confirmed in imagery to have advanced several blocks further into Toretsk, but Ukrainian forces appear to still have a toe-hold on the northern edge of Niu York.

Donetsk City

West of Donetsk City the Pokrovsk salient continues to slowly push further west and south-west, with small confirmed gains over the last several days in vicinity of the small towns just east of Pokrovsk, Arkhanhelske, Hrodivka, and Mykhailivka. To the south-east of Pokrovsk, it now appears that Russian force have taken Ukrainsk, though there are probably small pockets of Ukrainians remaining inside, and may have taken control of Zhelanne Pershe. Artillery and air strikes are being reported now in Pokrovsk.

Further to the south, Russian forces were active in the Heorhivka area and are pressing west and have pushed into Maksymilyanivka.

Further south, Russian forces were confirmed to have made small gains in the vicinity of Kostyantynivka, have pushed west from Vodyane, and are pushing west from positions just north of Vuhledar. West of Vuhledar reporting suggests that Russian forces have either reached Zolota Nyve or may even have passed it and are now 4 - 5 miles west of that town and pressing on Velyka Novosilke from the east.

Southern Ukraine 

There were skirmishes and exchanges of fire reported in the Robotyne area, as well at several locations along the Dnepr, but there were no confirmed gains or losses. Russian bloggers claimed Russian gains in the Kamyansk area (due west of Orikhiv, along the Dnepr River), but these are also not confirmed.

Air Operations

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Russian infrastructure early on the 18th, and struck a weapons storage facility at Toropets, about 240 miles west of Moscow and 250 miles north of Ukraine. The drone strike started a fire that has spread over several square miles of the facility and appears to have set off some other ordnance. The facility is a known storage facility for 122MM rockets and 82 MM artillery mines. There has been speculation that Iskander ballistic missiles were stored there as well.

Russian forces conducted strikes against Ukraine on the night of the 16th, launching 52 x Shahed drones in to Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 34 drones, that 12 drones went down due to Ukrainian electronic warfare efforts, and 2 reversed course and returned to Russia. The remaining four drones struck power infrastructure targets in the Sumy area.

Politics

The Indian government admitted to its purchase of Russian oil. India’s Oil and Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri noted:

"If an entity is not under sanctions, there is no question I will buy from the cheapest supplier.”

India imported an average of 2.07 million barrels of Russian oil per day in July, ahead of seconds place China, who imported 1.76 mbpd of Russian oil. 

India’s total oil imports for July reached 4.7 mbpd, roughly 90% of India’s oil demand.

The Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Roman Kostenko, commented that the Wall Street Journal report on war casualties gave exaggerated figures for Ukrainian dead. The Journal reported a figure of 80,000 Ukrainian KIAs; Kostenko said that even 50,000 was too high, and then went on to add that Ukraine has lost 19,000 KIA in each of the last two years. 

He then stated that he did not have accurate information on Ukrainian losses.

As a further data point, the Economist reportted in November of 2023 that Ukrainian casualties had already reached 70,000 KIAs, which, if that rate were maintained, would place cumulative Ukrainian KIAs near 100,000.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep17 Sep18

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 72.63 73.44

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 70.13 71.05

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.37 2.30

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.79 5.76

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 91.16 92.23

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 41.47 41.49

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 67.86 68.47

ESPO  67.02      65 77 77

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 66.33 66.32

Thoughts

Concerning the drone strike on Toropets, it seems fairly well executed, but lots of issues and speculation, the most interesting being the suggestion circulating in pro-Russian blogs that the attack was carried out from Latvia, which is less than 150 miles from the magazine.

As for damage, there are varying reports as to the size of the fire, one reported that it covered 13 square miles. Pictures of the fire from space made quite a visual in numerous papers, however, it should also be noted that that ammo bunkers are normally built so that a fire outside will not detonate the ordinance inside and that the unintended detonation of the ordnance in one bunker will not cause the ordnance in the next bunker to ignore. So, a strike may have started a fire, and set off some ammunition that was in open storage or was bing moved, but if (IF) the Russians built the facility properly, and if (IF again) they were storing ammunition properly, then most of the ordnance would survive the fire.

Videos of the first showed one large explosion followed by numerous small explosions, such as what one might expected from the detonation of battlefield rocket warheads, such as the 122MM rocket.

It is also of note that the main explosion was said to register a 2.8 on the Richter scale, which equates to just under a half ton of TNT, which would again suggest that if there were any ordnance exposed to the fire, it was fairly small, such as 122MM rocket warheads and not Iskander rockets, each of which carries a 1,000 lb (half ton) warhead.

v/r pete