September 10th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Minor Russian gains in Kursk Salient

- More Russian gains of Pokrovsk

Air Operations  - Ukrainian and Russian strikes continue

Diplomacy - Biden in UK on 13th, PM Fico comments on Nazis

Weather

Kharkiv

79 and clear, gusting to 20.  Partly to mostly cloudy this week; daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

76 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy for the next five days; daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

77 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy for the next 7 days; daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs around 80. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian and Ukraine forces remain engaged across most of the salient, with Ukrainian forces attacking in the west, the north and east, even as the Russian do the same. There were no confirmed Ukrainian gains however,  Russian forces had confirmed gains near Ulanok on the east side of the salient (about 6 miles south-east of Subzha), as well near Komarovka and Vishnevka, on the west side for the salient (side-by-side towns located about 5 miles south-west of Korenevo, Komarovka lies on the Seim River),; Russian sources claimed additional ground was gained near Malaya Loknya on the northern edge of the salient, but this was not confirmed.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues in both salients north and north-east of Kharkiv, with fighting reported at 6 different towns, but there were no confirmed gains or losses by ether side.

North the Donets River

Fighting continues along the entire line of contact with confirmed Russian gains in the Makiivka area (about 13 miles south-east of Svatove(, where Russian forces are attempting to to exploit their toe-hold on the West Bank of the Zherebets river. Russian gains were also confirmed north-west of Svatove near Pishchane (about 12 miles north-west of Svatove).  Intense fighting also is reported in Sinkivka, just north-east of Kupyansk.

Bakhmut

North-east of Bakhmut both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue the grind, each both gaining and losing ground, with Ukrainian forces regaining ground near Ivano Darivka even as Russian forces were taking ground west of Bilohorivka.

West of Bakhmut Russian forces appear to have made small gains west of Kalynivka (north of Chasiv war), and have pressed further westward and and have clearly established a foothold on the west side of the Donets Canal, north of Chasiv Yar. This was suspected last week but not confirmed.

Russian forces also made small gains just east of Chasiv Yar, and also appear to be pressing westward from the Klishchivka - Andrivka area, and there are unconfirmed reports that Russian elements are operating roughly west of Klishchivka, on the west side of the canal. Russian forces from Klishchivka may have reached the Donets Canal.

West of Horlivka fighting continues in Toretsk and in the northern end of Niu York but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

Donetsk City

Russian forces made confirmed gains east and south-east of Pokrovsk, within Novohodrivka  (about 6 miles southeast of Pokrovsk), as well as Mykhailivka (just east of Selydove) and probably fully control both those towns. Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian forces now have pushed into Selydove, and “intense fighting” is taking place in that town. Russian forces are also said to be pressing on Ukrainsk and Himyk - which if accurate, places them less than 5 miles from Russian forces in Heorhivka - the southern side of the pocket under the salient. 

West of Donetsk City, south of the Pokrovsk salient, Russian forces continue efforts to push west and north-west, pushing out and straightening the Russian line. Russian sources claim that Krasnohorivka is now fully in Russian hands; this has not been confirmed and it is likely that in both Krasnohorivka and Heorhivka that Russian forces control the bulk of these towns but there are still positions held by Ukrainian forces.

South-west of Donetsk Russian forces had confirmed gains in the general area of Vuhledar, with imagery showing a Russian flag being waved at the Pivdennodonbaska Mine No. 1 (a mile-and-a-half northeast of Vuhledar along the O0532 roadway).

Russians forces have also been confirmed in the immediate vicinity of Prechystivka (about 8 miles due west of Vuhledar) and other reports claim Russian forces have taken Vodyane, a small town about 4 miles north-east of Vuhledar. Russian forces remain active in the area and continue their operations to advance westward.

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Russian forces remain active, particularly in the Orikhiv area, pushing northward near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka, but there were no confirmed gains in terrain.

Along the Dnepr Russian bloggers report that Russian forces have gained a foothold on Kruhlyk Island but that has not been confirmed. The Russians now have toe-holds and observation posts on, per Russian bloggers, more than half of the island in the river. Russian and Ukrainian forces have repeatedly gained footholds on these islands, set up observation posts, etc, only to be driven off by the other side, often in just a few days; this is followed by the other side holding a position for several days until they are driven off. Presumably the Russians are trying to changer that calculus.

Air Operations 

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on multiple targets in Russia, striking at targets in 9 different oblasts. Totals - per the Russian MinDef included:

72 x drones Bryansk oblast

20 x Moscow

14 x Kursk

13 x Tula

8 x Belgorod

7 x Kaluga

5 x Voronezh

4 x Lipetsk

1 x Oryol

Russian air defense forces claimed to have shot down 144 drones. Several drones clearly did get through Russian air defenses and Moscow’s mayor reported at least one drone struck a high-rise apartment killing one and wounding several residents. Flights into and out of Moscow’s three airports were briefly suspended.

Russian forces launched 46 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space on the 9th; the UAF claimed it shot down 38, but gave no details ont he remaining 8 drones.

Russian forces launched 3 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 8 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space on the 8th; the UAF claimed it shot down 2 missiles and 6 x drones and defeated 2 of the drones with electronic warfare systems.

Russian opposition media reports the recruitment of 166,200 Russians for the army in the first six months of 2024, with 92,400 in the April - May - June timeframe. Tis appears to be above Russian enlistment goals.

Diplomacy

President Biden will meet with UK Prime Minister Starmer on Friday (the 13th) to discuss proposals to allow Ukraine use of US and UK weaponry for “deep strikes” into Russia. Most UK weaponry uses components that were manufactured in the US and therefore consultation with the US is required before this kind of approval can be granted.

Prime Minister Fico of Slovakia commented on Nazis fighting for Ukraine, while at commemoration of the Holocaust in the town of Sered’, in western Slovakia. (Sered’, a town of 15,000, was the site of one of three German Labor camps in Slovakia.)

"We all talk about fascism, Nazism, and at the same time we silently tolerate the fact that there are troops running around Ukraine that have a very clear designation, that are associated with movements that we consider dangerous and forbidden today. Since this is a geopolitical battle, no one cares.”

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said they were “disappointed” with Fico’s remarks:

"Ukrainian soldiers are currently defending their relatives, homes and country, as well as all of Europe and the free world from the Russian invaders, marked with the Latin letters "Z" - a symbol of the fascist aesthetics of modern Russia. For Ukrainians, opposing Russian aggression is a continuation of the history of our people's resistance to totalitarian regimes in last century.”

Politics

Some interesting numbers from the National Democratic Institute surveys of the Ukrainian people over the last few months:

76% state that Ukraine becoming a fully functioning democracy is important or very important. This is the first time that point has fallen below 93%.

77% have lost a friend in the war

22% have lost a family member in the war.

90% want Ukraine to join the EU

84% want Ukraine to become a member of NATO

43% believe the war will last at least another year

57% believe Ukraine

BUT

77% find negotiations with the current geography unacceptable

74% would not give up NATO membership for peace

76% would not give up EU membership for peace

45% approval rating for President Zelenskyy. He has been at or above 45% since the war began, though he was above 69% a year ago.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep10

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 71.31

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 68.23

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.24

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 91.20

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.69

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 66.29

ESPO  67.02      65 65

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 64.83

Oil prices are lower across the globe due to concerns about slowing economic growth and ad drop in demand form China, with some contrast for Russia oil coming in at $60 per barrel. Some OPEC+ countries are now considering keeping current pumping steady through November, rather than easing restrictions.

Still, of note, 29 tankers loaded 21.99 million barrels of oil last week (worth $1.44 billion), up from 21,67 million barrels (worth $1.52 billion) during the previous week.

On average, 1.25 million barrels per day were loaded per day headed for China, and 1.62 million barrels per day headed for India.

Thoughts

While there is no set definition of “friend” and “family” for purpose of the survey, that 22% of Ukrainians have lost a family member (cousins, in-laws, etc) in the war, this suggests a much larger casualty figure than is normally considered.

If we use a simple rule of thumb that the average family consists of 100 people, there would be 345,000 separate “families” in Ukraine, which would suggest 76,000 KIAs, more than twice the official KIA count.

And 100 people per family is certainly too large. Wikipedia suggests that the average family, including first and second cousins, is 36 people. Using double that number - 72 - as the average family size would yield 105,000 KIA (and would suggest 365,000 WIA).

v/r pete