September 25th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations - Russia Closing on Vuhledar

- Russian, Ukrainian army few gains in Kursk salient

- More Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Air Ops - Bomb Damage assessment (BDA) - Ammo dumps hit hard

Diplomacy - Zelenskyy at UN SC

Weather

Autumn is here but still no autumnal rains in the forecast.

Kharkiv

76 and sunny. Cloudy Thursday and Friday, then sunny weather returns. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds from the south-east, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

77 and sunny. Cloudy to partly cloudy to mostly sunny through Friday, then 5 days of sunny weather. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

75 and mostly cloudy, winds at 22, gusting over 35. Mostly cloudy rest of the week, some sun possible on Saturday, but rain likely on Sunday and Monday. Windy through Monday as well, 15kts or higher daily through Monday. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds southerly, 15-20kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Incursion

Ukrainian forces had more confirmed gains south-east of Veseloye (west of the main incursion), but had no confirmed gains in the main salient. There were no Russian gains confirmed in or around the main salient but there is some reporting that suggests that Russian forces continue to slowly chew away at the perimeter of the salient, except on the western side where they are digging deeply into the salient.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv but there has been no new developments since the seizing of the aggregate plant.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along the length of the line of contact. Unconfirmed reporting suggests that Russian forces continue to push westward from Pishchane and have gained ground in the direction of Kolysnikivka (and are less than a mile and half from the river in that direction) and gained ground on Kruhlyakivka, (now 2 miles from the river in that direction), and have artillery in position to fire on the surrounding roads. 

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and west of the Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains in either area.

Further south, west of Horlivka, Russian forces were confirmed to have pushed further into Toretsk, while other Russian forces appear to have pushed out of the northern end of Niu York and have pushed into the small town of Nelipivka, just south of Toretsk. If Russian forces do control Nelipivka, that would allow them to push up a major road and approach Toretsk from the west.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to push forward along the line of small towns east and south-east of Pokrovsk, and Russian bloggers claimed a series of small gains to the immediate east of Pokrovsk, but these have not been confirmed. Gains were also claimed in Selydove and Ukrainsk and further to the south-east, and fighting continues west and north of Heorhivka on the south side of the Nevelske pocket. There were no confirmed gains but reporting suggests that the mouth of the pocket is closing. 

At the same time Russian forces in the Heorhivka - Maksymilyanivka area continue to press westward. This movement, combined with the Russian forces in the Selydove area which continue to press both south and west, could generate another pocket, with the “jaws” meeting to the west of the Vovcha River reservoir, while other Russian forces continue to press west and threaten to circle Pokrovsk from the south.

Russian forces continue to slowly push into the eastern edge of Vuhledar, confirmed in imagery. Russian forces also continue to press northward from the Prechystivka area, as well as from the vicinity of Vodyane and just south of that town, presaging an encirclement of Vuhledar, leaving the two “jaws” of the pincer a bit more than 3 miles apart. Unconfirmed reporting suggests that the Russians have placed the last two supply roads (one decent dirt road, one less so) under direct fire. There is however, no clear indication that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Vuhledar yet.

Correction from yesterday: 100 citizens remain in Vuheldar…

Southern Ukraine

Fighting was reported northwest of Robotyne, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported more Russian activity along the Dnepr River but there was no confirmed gains or losses.

Air Operations

During the night of September 23rd Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander class ballistic missile, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, 1 x unidentified cruise missile, and 81 x

Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 66 drones and 13 

drones “did not reach their target” - were defeated using electronic warfare systems. The missiles and drones that did make ti through struck infrastructure targets, notable in the vicinity of Zaporizhzhia city.

Russian “glide bombs” were reported striking targets in Zaporizhzhia for the second day.

Maxar Technology imagery confirmed the damage to the Russian ammo dumps at Toropets and Oktyabrskii; the images speak for themselves. Tip of the hat to the targeeters; there was also some very good intelligence that allowed them to strike while there was a large ammunition train at the loading depot. 

Politics and Diplomacy 

President Zelenskyy spoke at the UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting yesterday, speaking to make his case that Russia will only be stopped through force. Of President Putin he commented that he “has broken so many international norms and rules that he won’t stop on his own...Russia can only be forced into peace, and that’s exactly what’s needed.”

He later commented that:

“This is the process that will lead us to peace, to a just peace, a real peace, a peace that will last...We have the peace formula. We have the U.N. Charter, and we have all the strengths needed to make it happen. What’s needed is determination. All of us already know how to achieve it.”

Secretary of State Blinken also addressed the UNSC, and condemned North Korea and Iran and China.

“North Korea and Iran are not the only ones aiding and abetting Russia, China, another permanent member of this council, is the top provider of machine tools, microelectronics, and other items that Russia is using to rebuild, to restock, to ramp up its war machine, and sustain its brutal aggression.”

He noted that:

“Russia is the aggressor. Ukraine the victim. Russia fights for conquest. Ukraine fights for survival. If countries stop supporting Russia, Putin’s invasion would soon come to an end. If countries stop supporting Ukraine, Ukraine could soon come to an end.”

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya responded, insisting the Russian invasion was a response to the ouster of President Yanukovych in February 2014, which he labeled: “a coup which was instigated by the West,” and that this coup was what pushed the Donbas to want to leave Ukraine, and then asserted that the post Yanukovych governments of Ukraine and the US and EU then worked together to undermine the Minsk agreements, that he governments in Kiev: “took great pains to sabotage it, and they feverishly armed themselves and prepared for war with Russia, with the assistance of the U.S. and their allies.”

Communist China’s ForMin Wang responded: “I wish to make it clear that on the Ukraine issue, any move to shift responsibility onto China, or attack and smear China, is irresponsible and will lead nowhere.”

Zelenskyy also visited Pennsylvania and made some comments that seem to have seriously exceeded propriety, calling the Trump-Vance ticket “too radical,” etc.  

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep24 Sep25

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 75.11 73.81

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 71.59 70.13

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.62 2.58

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.83 5.78

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 92.91 92.64

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.78 40.89 41.34 41.23

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 69.85 69.21

ESPO  67.02      65 77 77

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 67.62 67.95

ESPO (Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean pipeline) spot price reportedly was being quoted to India buyers yesterday afternoon as 50 cents above Brent. (The $77 listed above is the price China is currently paying.)

Bloomberg reports that the Russian budget proposal for 2025 is 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion) up from 10.4 trillion rubles ($112 billion). 

Ukrainian government announced that the GDP increase 3.7% in the 3 month period between April and June 2024 compared to 2023. This would equate to a 14% per year growth rate, double the annual growth rate the Russians announced yesterday…

Thoughts

The Maxar imagery released yesterday of the ammo storage facility is much more clear and shows that the strike was quite successful. What was in each building is unknown, but there was clearly a good deal of loss, so, tip of the hat to the Ukrainians in their execution of the strike. 

I would also add that I need to take back an off hand remark about Russian ammo dumps that I made - there is no obvious example of an explosion in one revetment breaching the revetment and setting off a neighboring storage facility; in fact there is very little to suggest that fires spread at all, so, the revetments mainly worked and the firefighting appears to have prevented further spread. But there was a nice piece of targeting tied to some decent intelligence: the Ukrainian strike hit while a train with a full load of ammunition was in the facility.

As for the possible fall of Vuhledar - the town itself means nothing. It has been nothing but a tightly woven array of observation posts, pill boxes and gun and Javelin team positions for years. Nor has anyone actually lived in Vuhledar for years.

But what Vuhledar does is “anchor” the two lines - the eastern front and the southern front meet at Vuhledar. Russian forces can't go much further west, or much further north if coming from the south if Vuhledar is in place. But if you remove Vuhledar the Ukrainian line will very rapidly slide west, essentially to Velyka Novosilke and the Russians will have little opposition in pressing west to something like a line from VN north, with VN the south-east corner of the fight and the boundary will default to something approximating the T0518 roadway north too the N15 roadway, and from their to the T0515 roadway all teh way to Pokrovsk.

At that point the Ukrainians will need to build more defensive lines in a north-south line west of Pokrovsk…

Some analysts are quick to point out that the Russians have twice tried to take Vuhledar (in 2022 and again in 2023) and got nowhere, while taking a serious beating. In 2022 2 Russian Naval Infantry regiments were were ordered to take the town “at all costs” and over the course of less than a month suffered on the order of 20% KIA and 50% WIA (something on the order of a total of 1,000 KIA and 2500 WIA) before being withdrawn.

And, if the Ukrainians can maintain the flow of ammo and supplies and some troops in, and wounded out, they may still be able to hold.

But the rains will be coming soon and the roads and field will get muddy and movement will be more difficult. And while movement will also be difficulty for the Russians, the supply line into Vuhledar will be under Russian guns, and it looks at this point as if the Russians have the momentum on their side.

And while the town itself is not of any significance, it’s position as the “anchor” of both lines, and the reputation of having held for more than 2 years, means that it’s loss will have weight among the Ukrainians. And there is the simple issue that it starts to sound false: Severodonetsk is of no strategic importance, Lysychansk is of no strategic importance, Bakhmut is of no strategic importance, Avdiivka, Marinka, now Vuhledar…

v/r pete