September 9th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - No major gains by either side in Kursk Salient

- Fighting continues east of Pokrovsk, small Russian gains

Air Operations  - Russian strikes continue, light damage to power grid

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and cloudy.  Partly to mostly cloudy this week; daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

77 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Thunderstorms tomorrow morning, partly to mostly cloudy the rest of the week; daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

78 and clear, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny on Tuesday, then mostly cloudy for the following 5 days; daily lows in the 50s, daily highs around 80. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Incursion

Both sides continue probing, and attacking as opportunity presents itself, but there were few gains claimed by either side. Russian sources claimed to have regained some ground south and east of Korenevo on the west side of the salient, and south-east of Subzha on the east side of the salient, and earlier claims from the 5th and 6th were confirmed. However, there were no substantive gains by either side - confirmed or simply claimed.

North Kharkiv

Fighting continues in both pockets - due north of Kharkiv, and north-east of Kharkiv - but there were no confirmed gains by either side in either area and the line of contact remains unchanged.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along essentially the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed gains by either side. 

Bakhmut

North and north-east of Bakhmut Russian forces remained on the attack but there were no confirmed gains. Reporting noted very heavy artillery and rocket barrages by the Russians into Siversk.

West of Bakhmut Russian forces had small, confirmed gains immediately north and west of Kalynivka, but there were no other gains noted.

South of Bakhmut Russian forces continue to press westward from Klishchivka but there were no confirmed gains in terrain.

West of Horlivka Russian forces continue to press into Toretsk, with confirmed gains on the eastern side of that town. Fighting has now devolved to street-to-street, house-to-house fighting as the Russians press into the town. Fighting continues in Niu York with Ukrainian elements continuing to hold a pocket in the north-central end of that town. The number of personnel and the extent of that pocket is not clear.

Donetsk City

Russian forces west of Donetsk continue to press on Pokrovsk; fighting is reported along most of the edge of the salient, and Russian bloggers claim gains in multiple towns, but these have, for the most part, remain unconfirmed. It would seem that the immediate focus is to press on Ukrainian positions in Selydove from the south-east and the north. The controlling piece of terrain in Selydove appears to be a small hill (land fill) on the north side of town and it is not clear who controls that hill.

Nevertheless, it is clear that Russian operations are underway in 6 or more towns in the immediate area east and south-east of Pokrovsk, with Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Mykhailivka, Ukrainsk, Dolynivka and Halytsynivka - which basically trace the western and south-western edge of the salient - all mentioned over the weekend

Russian forces were confirmed to have moved into Hrodivka and Novohrodivka by Saturday and appear to control most of both towns, and as of this morning have occupied the town of Memryk, just east of Selydove.

South-west of Donetsk city Russian forces remain on the offensive in Krasnohorivka and Heorhivka but no gains were confirmed. A line drawn from Krasnohorlivka, north-west to Ukrainsk (about 5 miles) would close off the pocket under the salient and is probably one of the short term goals of the operations to the south-west, closing up pockets and straightening and shortening the lines.

Further to the south-west operations continue both north of Vuhledar along the O-0532 roadway and west of Vuhledar in the direction of Velyka Novosilke, but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain.

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Fighting continues in the general area of Orikhiv and there are claims of Russian forces picking up ground north-west of Robotyne, but these reports are not confirmed. Activity was also reported along the Dnepr River but again there were no confirmed gains or losses.

 Air Operations 

Russian drones struck into Ukrainian airspace again last night, hitting elements of the power grid in seven oblasts, causing minor damage; as of this morning a number of cities and towns were still without power. Specific numbers were not given.

  On the night of 7 September Russian forces launched 4 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 23 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 1 x cruise missile and 15 drones, and that 3 cruise missiles and 2 drones were defeated with electronic warfare.

Kh-59s predominantly use a TV in the nose and a link to the launch aircraft for targeting, much like the old Walleye weapon system that the US used in Vietnam and Desert Storm; jamming the video link will, presumably, defeat the weapon.

President Zelenskyy reported that Russian forces launched more than 800 glide bombs,  300 Shahed drones, and 60 missiles against Ukrainian targets last week.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike into Belgorod Oblast on the 8th; causing a fire at a fuel storage facility.

On the night of 6 September Russian forces launched 67 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace, and the UAF claimed it shot down 58 drones. Falling debris was reported in multiple cities but the were no damage reports released.

Russian forces launched 5 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-59 cruise missile, 1 x Kh-31P anti-radar missile, and 44 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace on the night of the 5th. The UAF claimed it shot down 27 drones and defeated 8 others with electronic warfare. Specific targets struck by the missiles and surviving drones were not given, but 61 people were reported as injured.

Ukrainian forces also continue to strike pontoon bridges in the approaches to the Kursk incursion, dropping another pontoon bridge over the Seim River on the 8th.

Iran has reportedly delivered more than 200 x Fateh-360 short range ballistic missiles (Fateh means “conqueror”), 75 mile range with a 1509kg (339lb) warhead, with inertial navigation systems and GLONASS (Russian Navigation Satellite) update. and optical seeker heads.

Aid 

Sweden will transfer a military aid package worth 4.6 billion Krona ($444 million) to Ukraine, the 17th military aid package Sweden has provided Ukraine.

The package will include:

RBS-70 man-portable surface-to-air missiles

6 x CB90 fast assault craft (52 feet, capable of carrying an 18 man asset team, 40 kts, 240 miles)

PBV-302 armored personnel carriers

Ammunition of various calibers

Support and maintenance and spare arts for previously provided equipment 

Politics

President Zelenkyy appointed  Iryna Vereshchuk and Viktor Mykyta as Deputy Chiefs of Staff of the Presidential Office

Oleksandr Kamyshin was appointed Presidential advisor for strategic issues

Dmytro Lytvyn was appointed Presidential advisor for communications 

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep6 Sep9

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 72.82 71.74

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 69.27 68.37

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.27 2.20

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.31 90.75

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.75 5.67

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 69.14 78.83

ESPO  67.02      74.63

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 66.23

Thoughts

I suspect we will see a return to regular strikes on the power grid as autumn approaches, a steady series of strikes by the drones, with the occasional heavy strikes by ballistic missiles.

Elsewhere, CIA Director Burns  met with MI6 head Moore on Saturday and downplayed recent Russian comments on nuclear use. Burns noted that in late 2022, amid Russian commentary warning of nuclear weapon use, he had contacted Russian Foreign Intelligence Service director Naryshkin, implying that there was some sort of understanding as to what Putin was doing - rattling his saber. Burns point is that he is in contact with the senior Russians and that the west should not let Putin’s rhetoric intimidate them.

It is, of course, worth noting that Director Naryshkin cannot prevent President Putin from using nuclear weapons anymore than Director Burns could prevent President Biden from using nuclear weapons; the “Russians” will not decide on the use of nuclear weapons, President Putin will. Whether Director Burns can read Putin’s mind or not has not yet been revealed.

v/r pete