September 12th, 2024 

Overall  

Putin Statement

Ground Operations  - Russian gains in Kursk Salient

- Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Air Operations - Power Grid struck

Maritime Operations - Cargo ship struck, oil rig defended

Weather

Kharkiv

84 and most cloudy, gusting to 20.  Mostly cloudy through Friday, then sunny for 6 days. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

82 and mostly cloudy. Sunny Friday and Saturday, windy Sunday and Monday. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts Friday, Saturday through Wednesday easterly and windy, 15-25kts.

Kyiv

77 and cloudy, gusting to 30. Showers possible later tonight. Mostly cloudy for the next 5 days; daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs around 80. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Putin statement on NATO - Ukraine Deep Strike 

"I have already mentioned this, and any experts will confirm, both in our country and in the West, that the Ukrainian army is not capable of [independently] carrying out strikes using Western modern, long-range precision systems. It cannot do this. This is possible only with the use of intelligence from satellites which Ukraine does not have. This data is only available from satellites of the European Union or the United States, in other words, from NATO satellites. That's the first point.”

"The second and very important, perhaps key point is that only NATO servicemen can make flight assignments to these missile systems. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this.”

"So this is not about whether or not to allow the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia using these weapons, but of deciding whether or not NATO countries are directly involved in the military conflict or not. If such a decision is taken, it will mean nothing short of direct participation of NATO countries, the United States, European countries, in the war in Ukraine. This would constitute their direct participation, and this, of course, changes the very essence, the very nature of the conflict. It will mean that NATO countries, the United States and European countries, are at war with Russia. And if this is so, bearing in mind the change in the very nature of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be posed to us.”

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian forces continue to attack around the edge of the salient and have made gains on all sides but particular in the west where they pressed in past Snagost. Looking at the maps and Google imagery and the claimed areas where the Russians began by cutting off pieces where the terrain will favor local knowledge: small woods, ravines, water obstacles, etc., and taking them each in turn. 

West of Snagost it appears that the Russians were able to cut off a Ukrainian element completely and forced their surrender. How big that unit is isn’t clear, but may have been as large as a full battalion.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces counter-attacked in the Snagost area and further south and there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian mechanized elements are attempting to flank Russian forces operating just west of the salient along the border by cutting across the border further to the west. 

MGEN Alaudinov, commander of the Chechen Special Operations force, which has been committed to the Kursk salient, commented yesterday morning that they had retaken 10 towns [villages] and that “situation is good for us.” Ukrainian commanders had reported that they had taken more than 100 towns and villages.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues in the pockets north of Kharkiv but there no confirmed gains or losses.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces continue to make smack gains south-east of Kupyansk, west of the P07 roadway, with gains north of the small town of Stelmakhivka (about 15 miles south-east of Kupyansk) and north of Pishchane (about 11 miles south-west of Kupyansk).   Russian forces also content o hold terrain west of the Zherebets River in the vicinity of Makiivka. 

Bakhmut

Fighting continued north-east, north, west and immediately south of Bakhmut with with no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

Further south, Ukrainian and Russian forces are trading terrain inside Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces retaking some ground in the north-east corner of the town as Russian forces pushed further westward in the east end of the town. 

Donetsk City

Russian forces appear to have gained control of most or possibly all of Lysivka (4 miles south-east of Pokrovsk, 2 mile wests of the M04 / E50 roadway). Russian forces are also pushing westward from  and are pushing westward from Marynivka (a further 4 miles south-east). Russian forces are no north, east and south of Selydove. Further to teh south-east, Russian roces may have taken the east side of the town of Ukrainsk, as well as controlling the terrain to the north and south of the town.

West of Donetsk saw continued fighting but no confirmed gains. Reporting suggests Russian forces pushing northward out of Krasnohorivka, but gains on the ground have not been confirmed. If confirmed, in association with gains around Ukrainsk, this will fourth threaten whatever Ukrainian forces left int eh pocket north-east of Krasnohorivka.

Fighting continues both west and north of Vuhledar, as well as west and north of Vodyane as Russian forces press to control the coal mines and the major roads in this area, Burt there were no confirmed gains or losses in this area..

Southern Ukraine 

Russian forces remain on the attack at multiple sites across southern Ukraine, particularly north of Robotyne, but there were no confirmed changes in terrain held.

Russian forces were also active along the banks of the Dnepr River and on the islands from Kherson to the the mouth, but there were no confirmed changes to any terrain held. 

As a reminder, the events south-west of Kursk, as well as the operations east of Pokrovsk, have drawn virtually all the reporters and bloggers to focus on those two areas and, as a result, teh reporting on much of the rest of the fighting, in particular across the south, has fallen off to nearly zero. But fighting continues, and in particular artillery “sniping” by the Russian continues.

Air Operations

Russian force during the night of 11 - 12 September launched 2 x Islander ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, 2 x Kh-22 cruise missiles, and 64 x Shahed drones at power grid targets acrossUkraine. The UAF claimed it shot down 44 drones; 4 more were defeated by jamming.

Drones were reported in Kyiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia and Poltava oblasts; Konotop district (Sumy) reported heavy damage, with many wounded and the city without electricity and water.

Ukrainian forces launched drones into Russian airspace during the night of 10 September with multiple drones shot down over Murmansk, Belgorod, Kursk and Oryol oblasts.  Russian air defense forces also claimed they shot down an S-200 missiles that was reportedly targeting a gas distribution facility.

Russian forces conducted strikes on the night of the 10th with 1 x Islander ballistic missile, 2 x S-300 ballistic missiles, 6 x Kh-31p anti-radar missiles, and 25 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 20 drones and that the remaining 5 dozens were defeated with electronic warfare.  

The UAF claimed it shot down an SU-30 with a MANPAD (Man Portable Air Defense) systems - a hand-held surface to air missile. This is technically possible, but requires both luck and the pilot of the aircraft getting low and slow. 

Maritime Operations 

A Russian missile, reportedly a Kh-22 (also known as an AS-4 Kitchen), appears to have struck the merchant vessel Aya (Marshall Island  or Nevis and St Kitts registry - there seems to be some disagreement), around 2300 on the 11th, about 45 miles south off Snake Island. Aya is carrying a load of wheat from Ukraine to Egypt, and departed Chornomorsk (a Ukrainian port just south of Odessa) at 0731 local time on the 11th with 26, 550 tons of wheat. After the missile strike the ship altered course and headed to Constanta, Romania and appears to now be anchored off that port; its engine and machinery spaces were said to be undamaged, and no casualties were reported. The ship was in international waters when struck.

The Russian MinDef reported that Russian forces had defeated an assault on the Krym-2 drilling rig on the night of September 10th. Unidentified elements  of the Black Sea fleet were said to have sunk 8 of 14 “Willard Sea Force” inflatable assault boats during the engagement.  The Krym-2 is one of 4 jack-up rigs located west of Crimea. Krym 2 is located almost due south of Odessa about 80 miles, and about 50-55 miles due east of the Ukraine - Romania border.

Politics

Local elections were held in Crimea between the 6th and 8th of September; voter turnout was said to be 54%. Most outside sources consider the elections to have been, at best, rigged; and mark Cools, President of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe, commented: "The results of these elections cannot be recognized, just like the elections in Russia itself, which are not free and fair. I reiterate our unwavering commitment to the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders. Crimea is Ukraine."

SecState Blinken announced that the US will provide an additional $700 million in humanitarian aid.

Russian artillery struck a Red Cross ambulance in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk region, killing three and wounding two.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep11 Sep12

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 70.70 71.24

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 67.37 68.00

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.24 2.28

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 91.45 91.26

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.74 5.79

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 64.26 64.23

ESPO  67.02      65 65 65

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 64.83 64.86

Thoughts

Russian operations around Vuhledar appear to be making slow but steady progress in encircling that town. Vuhledar is a very hard target and the Russians have refrained from attacking it directly since they had 2 regiments chewed up in 2022. The “town” is primarily ruins and fighting positions and tunnels, there have been no inhabitants for several years, and the area is very heavily mined and the Ukrainians have built up numerous small apartment building into 5 floor bunkers that can survive anything smaller than direct hit by a 152 - which can’t get close enough to accurately hit them (which says something about Russian artillery accuracy - and probably barrel wear).

The problem for the Ukrainians, and opportunity for the Russians, is that Vuhledar has been the point the Russians can’t get past. If they can get past it now, and force Pokrovsk to fall at roughly the same time, the south-east corner of the line falls. So, while Pokrovsk is the bigger target due to its role in logistics, Vuhledar is “Ft. Apache,” holding the the two lines - east and south - together. Ukraine needs to hold it; and for obvious reasons Russia wants tot take it. And they now seem to have a chance to isolate it and let it “die on the vine” by cutting of the logistics support.

As for the use of US and other NATO country weapons for long range strike, Putin’s statement seems fairly clear. As one of my astute fronds noted, let’s hope everyone is very clear in their backchannel communications.

v/r pete