September 26th, 2024  480 BC  Battle of Salamis

Overall  

Ground Operations - Russia Closing on Vuhledar

- Russian, Ukrainian army no gains in Kursk salient

- More Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Aid - US announces more aid

Weather

Autumn is here but still no autumnal rains in the forecast.

Kharkiv

72 and partly cloudy. Cloudy Friday, then sunny weather returns. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

72 and clear. Cloudy tomorrow morning then mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

67 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly cloudy rest of the week, some sun possible on Saturday. Windy through Monday as well, 15kts or higher daily through Monday. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 15-20kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Fighting was reported along virtually the entire perimeter of the salient, as well as west of the salient near Veseloye, with both Russian and Ukraine forces both attacking and defending, yet there were no confirmed gains by either side.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues in both salients (north and north-east of Kharkiv); imagery has confirmed that Ukrainian forces have control of the aggregate plant in Vovchansk.

The Russians took control of the aggregate plant at the beginning of July and the Ukrainians immediately began efforts to get it back. By the middle of August the fight for the plant had devolved into a short range gun fight, with most of the plant already pummeled into scrap and by the end of August there was just a single Russian platoon that was holding what was left of the plant, and it seems that every day they were pulling one more wound guy out of the plant. Ukrainian forces report they captured 20 Russians when they took the plant, presumably whatever was left of the platoon.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces remain very active along the enter line from Kupyansk to the Donets, with confirmed gains near Makiivka (south-west of Svatove, on the Zherebets river), and further south as they pushed into the town of Neveske, also on the Zherebets River, and while there were no confirmed gains, Russian forces west of Pishchane continue to push west and south towards the Oskil River.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and west of Bakhmut, but again there were no confirmed gains in either area.

South of Bakhmut, Russian activity is still being reported east of Bila Hora and and east of Stupochky, and at least one conservative, Ukrainian focused, web site shows Russian forces south of Bakhmut have pushed across the Donets Canal in the general vicinity of Kurdiumivka and have reached the eastern edge of Bila Hora, and further north, west of Klishchivka, Russian forces have crossed the canal and are now less than a mile east of Stupochky.

Further south, west of Horlivka, Russian forces made small gains into eastern Toretske at the same time that Russian forces south of the town (north of Niu York) continue to press westward from the small town of Nelipivka and moved into the small town of Leonidivka, west of Nelipivka, threatening to flank Toretske as well.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue small but fairly regular gains south-east of Pokrovsk. The key town in the immediate future appears to be Selydove, a town about 8 miles south-east of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces still hold Selydove, but Russian forces have now taken the four towns to the north-east, east, and south of Selydove and several other small towns further to the south-east. At the same time Russian forces continue to push west from Nevelske (about 15 miles to the south-east), pushing north-west from Krasnohorivka and Hostre, and push west from Heorhivka and Maksymilyanivka, generating another pocket to trap Ukrainian troops, eating up more ground, and establishing a position just south of Selydove from which they can swing west and north, take Selydove, and then press on Pokrovsk from the south and southwest, while other Russian forces press westward from due east of Pokrovsk. 

It is difficult to gauge time lines in this style of fighting but the Russians could be in a position to take Selydove within several weeks, and Pokrovsk before the end of October if the Ukrainian forces are not reinforced.

Further south, Russian troops appear to have made some gains inside Vuhledar, and there appears to be general agreement that Russian elements now control east of 13th Desantnykiv street, in eastern Vuhledar. Russian reporting claims that all roads into Vuhledar have been brought under direct fire.

Russian forces now occupy up to and into the eastern edge of Vuhledar, as well as the southern edge of Vuhledar. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces are now being exfiltrated from the town.

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Skirmishes, small unit probes and artillery fire were reported across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr River but there were no reported gains or losses in terrain by either side.

It is worth noting that there are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces south of Orikhiv are conducting probes to establish best options for pushing north and cutting the east-west roadways (T0812, T0803 and T0815 roadways to further comply logistics support to south-east, in concert with the operations around Vuhledar.

Air Operations

On the night of the 25th and into the morning of the 26th Russian forces launched 4 x missiles (not further identified) and 78 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace; the UAF claimed that all 4 missiles and 66 drones were shot down. There was no reporting on where any missiles or drones might have hit.

This morning Russian forces launched 3 x Kh-47 Kinzal rockets at Starokostiantyniv airfield, Khmelnytskyi oblast (about 125 miles east of Lviv). The field is the home base of the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade and flies SU-24M Fencers. There was no report on damage.

On the 24th Russian forces launched a x S-300 and 3 other unconfirmed ballistic missiles, 4 x H-59/69 cruise missiles, and 32 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down all 4 cruise missiles and 28 of 32 drones, and reported that the remaining 4 drones “did not reach their targets,” that is, were defeated by EW.

This morning Russian forces launched 3 x Kh-47 Kinzal rockets at Starokostiantyniv airfield, Khmelnytskyi oblast.

Aid 

The White House announces an $8 billion assistance program for Ukraine, consisting of a large amount of weapons and ammunition, and incudes more Patriot launchers, Patriot missiles and an undisclosed number of JSOW - Joint Stand Off Weapon. JSOW is an INS/GPS guided weapon with a 70nm range and 1,000 lb warhead.

The plan also includes “hundreds” of Patriot missiles and AMRAAM, and HIMARS missiles. The full details have yet to be worked out.

The German Government announced it would transfer 400 million Euros ($430 million) to Ukraine for the purchases of ammunition and spare parts. 

Politics and Diplomacy 

Leonid Tymchenko, Minister of Internal Affairs, in an interview noted that some 55,000 Ukrainians are missing and that further:

"Most of them are military personnel. This figure is quite dynamic: when the whereabouts of missing persons are established, in some cases, it turns out that a citizen, for example, is in captivity. Unfortunately, we are also finding that some who were considered missing are actually dead."

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Zelenskyy “Victory Plan” did not impress many who have heard it and that it for the most part was received as a request for more weapons, and that there is still no clear path to victory.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep25 Sep26

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 73.81 71.76

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 70.13 68.01

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.58 2.59

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.78 5.89

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 92.64 92.73

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.78 40.89 41.23 41.16

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 69.21 69.49

ESPO  67.02      65 77 77

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 67.95 64.81

Thoughts

The incursion into the Kursk oblast appears to have stalled out, as has the Russian incursion due north of Kharkiv.

However, Russian forces continue to make gains along the line of contact. Of lesser immediate importance just south of Kupyansk, the Russian movement towards the Oskil, if successful and properly exploited, could be sued to run north and south along that banks and force Ukrainian forces to move west of the river and give the Russians a new, further west, defensive line.

Just south of Bakhmut the Russian press on Bila Hora and Stupochky, if successful, could set up a turning movement to the north and allow the Russians to strike Chasiv Yar on its flank.

Similarly, the movement just south of Toretske appears to set up the Russians for an envelopment of that town.

So, three towns that look as if the Russians are setting up some sort of Operational movement to change the lines in the east.

But the moment south of Pokrovsk and the movement around Vulhedar, of successful, will push the Ukrainian line back more than a dozen miles, involve the loss of another 300 square miles, and leave Ukraine with few defensive positions along much of their south-east.

The failure to build a strong fallback defensive lines and the willingness to, when necessary, cede some property so as to fall into a defensive line that will hold, may have serious consequences in the next few months.

v/r pete