September 24th, 2024 

Overall  

Diplomacy - Zelenskyy Strategy Critique

Ground Operations  - Russian, Ukrainian army few gains in Kursk salient

- More Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

- Ukrainian gains north of Kharkiv

Weather

Autumn is here but there are no autumnal rains in the forecast, yet.

Kharkiv

73 and sunny. Sunny to partly cloudy through the week, daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

77 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny through the week, daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

76 and sunny, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy rest of the week, daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds southerly, 10-15kts.

Diplomacy

Bloomberg news agency reports that an anonymous source, familiar with President Zelenskyy’s Victory Plan, has characterized the plan as a “Wish List,” that there are “no surprises,” and another source commented that there were “no game changers” 

President Zelenskyy met with members of Congress today, and will brief President Biden on Thursday.

Ground Operations

Kursk Incursion

Ukrainian forces made some gains near Veseloye (west of the main incursion), while Russian reporting suggests some of that recently gained ground was taken back by Russian forces. In the area of the main incursion Ukrainian forces gained no new ground and Russian forces continue to eat away at the edges.

The Russians now report that a total of 12 villages have been retaken from the Ukrainian force.

North of Kharkiv City

In Vovchansk this morning Ukrainian special operations elements cleared the aggregate plant in the center of Vovchansk. The fight for the plant had turned into a small but visible struggle for control of the center of the industrial sector of the town, with a Russian platoon circled in the plant, eventually being reduced to less than 20 men as wounded were snuck out at night. The final assault this morning capture or killed the remaining Russians.

Russian forces are reportedly switching to defensive operations in the two small pockets north of Kharkiv, as a result of several units being pulled and moved to the Kursk area. Fighting continues in both pockets and reporting suggests that Ukrainian forces now have the initiative in these pockets, but that can’t be confirmed and there was no change in the front line in the last few days

North of the Donets River

Russian forces have been confirmed to be just east of Kolisnykivka Kruhlyakivka (two towns on the east bank of the Oskil River, west of Pishchane) and while this has not been confirmed by imagery, one of the more conservative, pro-Ukrainian blogs placed Russian forces just 2 miles from the river.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains.

West and immediately south of Bakhmut Russian forces continue to press westward and continue to report operations directed at Bila Hora (well to the west of the Donets Canal (by several miles)), but there is no confirmation that they have penetrated that far.

West of Horlivka Russian forces claimed more gains in Toretsk and fighting continues in the northern end of Niu York as well as along the south edge of Toretsk, but there were no confirmed gains.

Donetsk City

In the general area east of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to advance. Along the line south-east of Pokrovsk Russian forces contain to push westward from the Ukrainsk, as well as southward. Reporting suggests that Russian forces have taken the town south of Ukrainsk - Zhelanne Druhe, which leaves perhaps 3 miles of open terrain across the western opening of the would-be salient south of the Russian advance.  Any Ukrainian forces in that pocket (just west of Nevelske) will need to withdraw in the next few days  -  at most, or be trapped in the pocket. Fighting also was noted due east of Pokrovsk, but there was no noted movement of the line.

Fighting continues along the south side of the pincer, near Heorhivka and Maksymilyanivka and Russian forces do in fact appear to have control of Hostre, but there were not confirmed gains in terrain by Russian forces.

Further south Russian forces continue to work to encircle Vuhledar; the capture of the large coal mine west of Vodyane (Pivdennodonbaska No. 3) appears certain, and that will further weaken Vuhledar’s situation (the mine is the closest significant terrain feature north of Vuhledar). Fighting is taking place just east of Vuhledar in the “dacha” area, and there are reports within the last 24 hours that suggest the Russians either have taken control or are about to the dacha area, and that other Russian elements have begun to push into the town itself.

Further west Russian forces continue to press on Zolota Nyva (7 miles south-east of Velyka Novosilka), but there were no changes in terrain held.

Southern Ukraine

Small unit probes, skirmishes and limited artillery and drones exchanges were reported along the southern front line and along the Dnepr River, and Russian forces made unconfirmed gains north of Staromaiorske, but there were no other claimed gains of terrain.

Air Operations

During the night of September 22nd Russian forces launched 2 x Kh-59/69 missiles and 4 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace; the UAF claimed it shot down 3 drones and the 2 missiles and 4th drown “did not reach their targets,” the General Staff euphemism for electronic warfare.

During the night of the 22nd RuAF assets also bombed Zaporizhzhia City, 7 bombs striking the city, hitting power grid elements as well as damaging 13 residences, and 2 schools. The specific type of bombs used isn’t clear, but they were apparently dropped from more than 15 miles distance (outside local surface to air missile envelopes. 

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Sep23 Sep24

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 73.87 75.11

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 70.36 71.59

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.58 2.62

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.69 5.83

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 92.83 92.91

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.78 40.89 41.46 41.34

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 69.85 69.85

ESPO  67.02      65 77 77

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 67.64 67.62

The Russian government reports that their GDP grew 4.4% in the first 7 months of 2024, with manufacturing output up 8.6% and capital investment up 11% in hot time frame, with unemployment now sitting at 2.4%.

These numbers seem a bit fantastic, representing a 12 month growth rate of a tad over 7%.

Thoughts

Assuming the reports from the Pishchane area (just south of Kupyansk) are correct and Russian forces are now within 2 miles of the Oskil River, and that Russian forces respond doctrinally (which they have been doing in the last 15 months), they will move reserve forces into this salient. The first step the Russians will take may well be to take control of the paved roads that run to the east so that they can continue resupply as the fall rains begin in the next week or two. Pushing across the Oskil would be a feather in Russia’s cap, but controlling the bridge across the river to Senkove and thereby cutting the logistics flow to Ukrainian forces east of the River is the real success.

On the other hand, Ukrainian forces must hold that bridge or risk forcing a withdrawal for much of the area east of the Oskil.

The issue of the approaching autumn rains will also apply to Vuhledar in the south; the Russians have cut the only paved roads into that town and once the rains begin resupply over the two major dirt roads will become increasing difficult. The lack of paved roads will exacerbate the Ukrainian situation in Vuhledar in the weeks ahead.

Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy will present his Victory Plan to President Biden and to Trump and Harris. We’ll see soon enough if the Bloomberg report is correct, but it would seem to me that the real question is trained manpower. More long range weapons are useful, but WunderWaffe rarely succeed, and to take and hold a piece of terrain requires trained infantry.

v/r pete