September 3rd, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Marginal gains both sides in Kursk Salient

- Russia continues advances in Donbas, nearing Pokrovsk

Air Operations - Missile strike in Poltava

- F-16 Loss - Friendly Fire?

Weather

Kharkiv

81 and cloudy, gusting to 25.  Cloudy through Thursday, then partly to mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

80 and rain, gusting to 20. Thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, partly to mostly cloudy rest of the week. Daily lows mid 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

85 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy through Thursday, then mostly sunny. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian forces reportedly continue to flow into the Kursk area, but without drawing from the Russian forces engaged inside Ukraine. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to attack and both sides made marginal gains over the weekend, with Russian forces gained ground east of Korenevo while Ukrainian forces gained ground near Malaya Loknya (north of Subzha). Ukrainian forces again struck pontoon bridges across the Seim River, trying to hinder the operations of Russian forces to the west of the salient. 

North of Kharkiv 

North of Kharkiv Russian forces continued to attack but made no gains near either Hlyboke nor near Vovchansk.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along essentially the entire line of contact and Russian sources claimed small gains up and down the line but none of these claims have been confirmed. Many of the claims appear to be in the same areas that have shown repeated gains followed by losses over the last 18 months, a seemingly never ending see-saw of advantage and disadvantage. 

Bakhmut

North of Bakhmut Russian forces had confirmed gains north-east, east, and south-east of Siversk, and north of Bilohorivka; west of Bakhmut there were small Russian gains immediately east and north of Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces are continuing to attack to the west and north-west from the high ground immediately west of Klishchivka.

West of Horlivka Russian forces continue to press slowly into Toretsk; just to the east of Toretsk, Pivnichne is now clearly under Russian control.  Immediately to the south, although the various blog sites offer conflicting perspectives on the location of the front line, Russian forces are moving freely through most of Niu York and there is no reporting of any activity to the north-east of Niu York - between Niu York and Zalizhne - suggesting that the last Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from that pocket.

Donetsk City

Fighting continues just east of Pokrovsk, with both sides making some gains, but Russian forces continuing to slowly expand their salient as they press on that town.

Ukrainian forces regained some ground on the edge of Novohrodivka (8 miles south-east of Pokrovsk). Fighting continues in nearby Marynivka, with no noted changes. But just east of Selydove Russian forces appear to have made gains, as well as in the terrain further to the south; the Russians appear to be exploiting weaker lines to the south, while pushing into the general terrain south of the salient, developing a possible encirclement of Pokrovsk from the south while straightening their own lines. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Ukrainian forces are now withdrawing form the possible pocket that might sit between the southern edge of the Pokrovsk salient and the town of Krasnohorivka.

South-west of Donetsk City Russian forces contain to push westward, closing up possible pockets, and bringing Ukrainian logistic lines in range of Russian artillery. Russian forces are now confirmed to have reached the Pivdennodonbaska 1 coal mine, located about 1.5 miles north-east of Vuhledar along the O-0532 roadway (with 69 million tons of coal reserves). Russian forces were thought to have taken the facility above the mine in early August but that was never confirmed. Now it appears that they have, in fact, control of the site above ground.  As you may recall, Vuhledar bunkers are connected to the coal mine, the mines themselves being huge, with tunnels that in one case reach more than mile under ground.

At the same time Russian forces have moved along the road west of Vuhledar, have pushed into Prechystivka, and appear to be in the process of enveloping Vuhledar.

Vuhledar is a very heavily built up series of fighting positions, many of them in the very hard, 5 - 7 floor apartment buildings that housed many of the 14,000 people who sued to live in the town (the town is now an abandoned ruin). There was also a second coal mine, Pivdennodonbaska 3, which has reserve of 156 million tons, and is located about 3 miles north of Vuhledar, just west of the small town of Vodyane. There is no coal mine #3; there were originally going to be 10 mines, as well as other industrial facilities, but only 2 mines ever came into production (the joys of central planning).

 Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Russian probes and artillery fire continue across the south, but there were no confirmed gains or losses of territory.

Russian forces continue to raid along the river, but there were no reports of substantive damage, or losses of personnel or gear; these raids mainly appear to be nuisance raids.

Air Operations 

Russian forces conducted a ballistic missile strike on Poltava this morning (about 0900 local time), launching 2 x Iskander class ballistic missiles at the city. The missiles hit a hospital and the Military Institute of Communications, killing at least 49 and wounding 219.

On the night of September 1st Russian forces launched 16 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 14 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 4 x S-300 missiles, 1 unidentified missile, and 23 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 9 x Iskanders, 13 x Kh-101s, and 20 x Shaheds. EW systems defeated an additional Kh-101 and 3 x Shaheds.

On the night of August 28th Russian forces launched 3 x Kh-59/69, 2 unknown missiles, and 74 x Shahed drones at a wide range of Ukrainian targets, The UAF claimed it shot down 2 x Kh-59/69 missiles, and 60 x drones. The UAF reported that the remaining 14 drones were defeated electronically.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone and missile strike into Russia own the night of August 31st, and Russia Air Defense Force claimed to have shot own or destroyed 158 drones in Russian air space.

Two drones struck the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotyna, resulting in a fire, that was reportedly quickly controlled. Several other small fires were reported elsewhere but there were no indications of any heavy damage.

On the night of August 31 Russian forces launched at least 3 x Iskander ballistic missile, 3 x S-300 missiles, 11 x Shahed drones and a number (no further data0 of glide bombs into Ukrainian air space.

The UAF claimed it shot down 8 x drones. Kharkiv city was struck by 2 x Iskanders, 3 x S-300s and the various glide bombs.

Per President Zelenskyy, Russian forces launched 160 missiles, 780 glide bombs, and 400 strike drones into Ukrainian air space between August 25 to September 1.

As I speculated early on August 29th, the UAF F-16 loss last week appears to have been caused by friendly fire, the F-16 flew into the engagement zone of a Patriot battery. I have some additional thoughts below.

Aid

Bloomberg reported that an anonymous EU official told them that Iran will soon 

deliver Ababil [Ababils are magical birds mentioned in the Koran that protect the Kaaba in Mecca] and Fateh 360 [Farsi for “conqueror”] ballistic missiles to Russia. Ababil’s carry a 100lb (45 kg) warhead) and have a maximum range of about 55 miles, with an optical seeker head or INS nav. The Fateh 360 carries a 330lb (150kg) warhead and has a maximum range of about 75 miles.

Russian personal have been in Iran since at least late July receiving training on the missiles. Reuters reported in early August that Russia had purchased “hundreds” of missiles; there is no more detail than that as to how many missiles are being purchased.

As expected, talk in Kyiv, and elsewhere, has now moved to the providing of JASSM (Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missile (AGM-158)) to the UAF for use by the F-16s.

JASSM (AGM-158A) is a 230 mile range missile with a 1,000 lb warhead. There is also an extended range version (AGM-158B) with a range in excess of 500 miles. JASSM is a low observable air frame with a CEP (accuracy) of less than 10 feet.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Putin is in Mongolia - a signatory of the Rome statute - but Mongolia had already stated they would not honor the ICC warrant; Putin has not been arrested.

Romania’s lower House of Parliament's (the Chamber of Deputies), passed a bill to transfer a Patriot battery to Ukraine. The bill now goes to the upper House (the Senate) and then, assuming it passes, would be signed by President Iohannis.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug29 Sep3

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 80.19 75.57

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 76.26 72.16

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.10 2.19

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 92.00 88.59

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.42 5.52

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 73.89 74.08

ESPO  67.02      74.63 70.04 74.00

SOKOL 70.82 70.88 69.84

Of note, the Ruble has seen some wide swings over the past month and per the various financial magazines and web sites the reason isn't clear, with some now suggesting that the reason for the swings up and down several full points per week is how the exchange rate is being calculated in the US and Europe.

Daily volumes for the Russian natural gas headed to the EU and Moldova - pumped through the Ukrainian pipelines, via the pumping station at Subzha - now occupied by the Ukrainian army - remains with standard volumes.

Between August 26th and September 2nd the average 42 million cubic meters per day.

Thoughts

Russian gains, south of Bakhmut and along most of the front west of Donetsk City, continue despite the Kursk incursion, which now appears to have culminated. Ukrainian forces appear to have some prepared defensive lines immediately east of Pokrovsk, which might explain eh Russian effort to press through toe the south-east, move around those improved defensive lines, and drive on Pokrovsk front the south. This should become a bit more clear within a few days to a week.

The loss of the F-16 to a Patriot, that is “Friendly Fire" (as a Marine Gunnery Sergeant told me many years ago: “Friendly fire isn’t.”), demonstrates the need for strict adherence to procedures when flying around surface to air missile (SAM) systems. US and NATO aircraft, and I assume the UAF F-16s, have multiple pieces of gear that identify the aircraft to other aircraft and to friendly SAM batteries. US and NATO forces use two separate, encrypted systems (Mode 4 and Mode 5) to ensure proper identification. As I said, I assume the UAF F-16s have one or both of these systems. 

Even so, it is worth noting that during the first few weeks of Operation Iraqi Freedom a US Navy F-18 and an RAF Tornado were shot down by Patriot systems; both shoot-downs were later attributed to either IFF failure or failure to adhere to return to force procedures - flight paths that an aircraft is supposed to fly if they know their IFF system has failed.

If an aircrew believes his IFF is not working properly the aircraft has to remain well outside of any possible missile engagement zone (MEZ) and return to base. A bad IFF is, in combat, a “down” gripe. And pursuing a cruise missile into a Patriot MEZ even with a working IFF is something that should never happen.

v/r pete