October 25th, 2024 Next Summary November 11th

Overall  

Ground Operations         - More Russian gains 

Air Operations - Daily strikes

Power Grid           - Could be a dark winter

Politics                  - Putin did not reject peace offer

                - More North Korean Troops

Weather

Kharkiv

51 and cloudy. Saturday will be sunny, then  cloudy for the next 5 days. Daily lows will be in the 30, daily highs in the low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

52 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy for the next week, daily lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

50 and cloudy. Partly cloudy to cloudy for the next 5 days. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues on both sides of the salient and lines continue to “see-saw” back and forth, with Russian forces regaining ground south-east of Korenevo and Ukrainian forces retaking some of that terrain in the same 24 hour period.  Russian forces also regained some ground south, and east, of Korenevo

Further west, Ukrainian forces retain a toe hold in the area of Novy Put, but there were no confirmed changes to the positions held.

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces remain on the offensive but made no confirmed gains in the small pockets north of Kharlkiv.

North of the Donets

Russian forces made confirmed gains in several locations to include pushing into the town of Novosadove on the Zherebets River, just north of Terny.  Taking Novosadiove would allow the Russians to operate west of the Zherebets River and is a significant gain if confirmed. Further north, Russian forces west of Pishchane appear to be pressing on Kruhlyakivka (another town on the Oskil, from the north and north east.

Bakhmut

North-east of Bakhmut Russian forces made confirmed gains south-east of Soversk in the area of Vyimka.

Fighting continues north, east and south-east of Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Fighting continues in central Toretsk and imagery of the last 2 days shows Ukraine forces have retaken several blocks in the center of the city.

Donetsk City

The fight for Pokrovsk remains focused on the fight for the town of Selydove, south-east of Pokrovsk about 10 miles. The Russians control the terrain north, east and south of the town, have taken the towns abutting Selydove on those sides, and have pushed in to parts of Selydove itself, but Ukrainian forces maintain their positions in the north side of the town. While there is some fighting taking place due east of Pokrovsk, the Russian focus right now is on Selydove, and that seems to be the main effort in this area. 

Some analysts suggests that this singular Russian focus is detracting from achieving the overall goal of taking Pokrovsk (and by extension, the rest of Donetsk Oblast). It should be remembered however, that the defenses around Pokrovsk are heaviest due east of the town and less so to the north and south. Taking Selydove would not only serve to cut the lines of communication from the center to the south-east, it would also simplify, at least to some extent, the process of circling Pokrovsk and attacking the town across less well developed defensive lines to the south and south-west.

On the south side of the (mostly closed) pocket under the Pokrovsk salient, Russian forces remain active in the Kurakhove and Maksymilyanivka areas, but there were no confirmed changes in the forward line.

The Russian attack on Bohoiavlenka (north-west of Vodyane), seems to have evolved to just the attack from the Vodyane area, and the attack from the Preshystivka area (west of Vuhledar) doesn't seem to be very active.

From the Vodyane area, Russian forces continue to press north-west and anecdotal reporting suggests that they are gaining ground, but that has not been confirmed. Additional fighting is taking place both north of Vodyane, and to the west of Vuhledar with more reported Russian gains in both, but again, these were not confirmed.

Southern Ukraine

Russian forces continue to slowly press north from the Robotyne area and have reached the vicinity of Novodanylivka, the small town 2 miles south of Orikhiv. Where the front line is, isn’t to clear, but looking at the maps at various blogs it would seem the Russian line has crept several miles north of Robotyne and is perhaps a bit more than 2 miles south-west of Novodanylivka.  Again, note that the scarcity of reporting from the south is producing what looks like a stop and start series of actions but it is probable that there has been a slow but steady grind in the area and it simply can't be seen given the level of coverage. 

Fighting continues elsewhere across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr, but there were no reports of any gains or losses.

Air Operations 

During the night of 24-25 October Russian forces launched 63 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. Initial reports note that the UAF claimed to have shot down 36 drones. How many were defeated by EW (‘Got Lost”) has not yet been reported, but fires from downed drones were reported at several sites around Kyiv.

During the night of October 23-24 Russian Forces launched 2 x Kh-22 cruise missiles, 2 x Kh-59 cruise missiles, and 50 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 40 drones, 7 drones were lost (defeated by EW) and 2 drones flew into Belarus. Damage was reported to a transformer in the Kyiv area.

Power Grid

Overall, Ukrainian power grid and energy related targets sustained 42 hits over the past week.

Ivan Fedorov, Head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, commented yesterday that resident of the Ukraine controlled slice of Zaporizhzhia Oblast should prepare for a complete lack of electricity.

"People may not like this, as we’re dealing with very stark realities. But let’s prepare for the worst. If things go better, that’ll be great. What do we need to do? We need to double our backup. Install one generator, and then a second one.”

Nevertheless, central heating facilities will have back-up power sources.

“The delay and the fact this wasn’t done before the heating season are due to the enormous demand for cogeneration systems across Ukraine. No production facility in the world can meet the needs of a large country like Ukraine. Plus, we don’t have the funds.”

"Our partners are financing them, and they’ve purchased them for us. The first cogeneration units will arrive in Zaporizhzhia by 15 November. We hope the connection will take up to a month. So we’re reserving this option.”

Politics and Diplomacy

President Putin told the Russian News Agency RIA that during the UN General Assembly in New York in September that Turkey received a proposal from Ukraine, to pass to Russia, about taking steps to secure grain and energy facilities:

"Türkiye also presented an initiative concerning the Black Sea situation: to ensure safe shipping, establish certain agreements and reach security arrangements regarding nuclear energy facilities."

Putin said he agreed but shortly thereafter President Zelenskyy made public his Victory Plan, which Putin felt cancelled out any talks.

Putin also said yesterday that any proposal must take into account the terrain now held by Russian forces and must be “based on the realities on the ground.”

The Republic of Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) is reporting (per Bloomberg) that a second element of North Koran troops have moved into facilities in the greater Vladivostok area to begin a training period, estimated at one month in length, to prepare them for war in Ukraine.

NIS also reports that an NK three star general will be in overall command.

Ukrainian intelligence is reporting that the first North Korean soldiers arrived in the Kursk area on the 23rd; further, Ukrainian intelligence said that they expect the North Korean unit to moved into a combat role on the 27th or 28th of October.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Oct24 Oct25

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 75.47 75.37

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 71.32 71.18

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.43 2.51

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.79 5.82

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 96.83 96.80

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.29 41.33

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.79 67.79

ESPO 65 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 68.39 67.51

Thoughts 

The might be a hint that the loose peace offering made by Zelenskyy isn’t dead. 

First, Putin didn’t flatly reject it, and the usual players (ForMin Lavrov and the often rabid Deputy National Security Council member Medvedev) have not made statements against it.

Further, the fact that Putin brought up that he had accepted a similar idea when proposed, all suggest that there is some small reason to be hopeful

In addition, there is the simple truth that the Zelenskyy victory plan has failed before it got out of the starting blocks. As pointed out yesterday, 7 NATO countries do not want to offer NATO membership to Ukraine.

Further, the US again rejected full range use of US weapons (which also effect long range weapons for several other countries that use US systems or data). So the first two, and most important, elements of the Victory Plan will not happen.

So, the Victory Plan appears to have stalled out, Russia is still grinding away in some sectors of the front line, Ukraine’s manpower problems have recently moved under a spotlight with recent stories in the press about very large number of Ukrainian desertions, and the arrival of North Koreans soldiers in Kursk suggest Putin may have solved his manpower problems without a general mobilization.

And winter is approaching.

All of this speaks to negotiating now not later.

v/r pete