October 8th, 2024 No Report Tomorrow 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - No change around Kursk

- Small Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

- Tsukuryne falls, Selydove threatened

Politics - Ceasefire Proposal? Financial Times

- No Peace summit in November 

Weather

Kharkiv

55 and cloudy. Partly cloudy through Saturday, rain on Sunday. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the upper 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

59 and clear. Mostly sunny through the week except Thursday, cloudy. Rain on Sunday. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the low 70s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

50 and clear, gusting to 20. Mostly clear to party cloudy through Friday, followed by two days of rain. Tomorrow lows in the 40s, then 3 days of lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues at multiple points on the perimeter of the of the Kursk salient; imagery confirmed Russian gains east of Snagost on the 7th near Lyubimovka and fighting continued in that area through the 7th. Ukrainian gains were noted on the 6th south of Korenevo, and fighting contend there through the 7th. There were no other noted changes in the front lines.

North of Kharkiv 

Russian forces are confirmed to have made gains in Vovchansk and appear to be pushing back into the center of the town, near the aggregate plant. Ukrainian forces note an increase in Russian tactical aviation and drone activity.

North of the Donets

Fighting continues along most of the line of contact, with Russian forces claiming gains south-east of Kupyansk, as well as west of Svatove.

More significantly, Russian forces claimed gains (not yet confirmed) east of Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka, the two towns on the east bank of the Oskil, west of Pishchane, as they continue their efforts to reach the Oskli river and presumably seize the bridge over the Oskil at Senkove. Pro-Ukrainian blogs continue to show incremental gains every day and the Russian forces west-south-west of Pishchane are now shown to be within 1 mile of the river. And perhaps a mile-and-a-half of the bridge over the river.

Bakhmut

North and north-east of Bakhmut Russian forces remain on the attack and appear to making incremental gains north of Vesele, towards Siversk, but progress is glacial.

Fighting continues just east of Chasiv Yar, as well as just east of Stupochky and Bila Hora but there does not appear to have been any gains or losses by either side.

Further south, Russian sources claimed small gains inside Toretsk, as Russian forces continue   house-to-house fighting in the eastern half of that town, but these gains cannot be confirmed. 

Donetsk City

Russian control of Tsukuryne (just south of Selydove) was confirmed as Russian forces continue operations along the entire perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient. The western edge of the salient continues to grind forward very slowly, but the south-west corner appears to be gaining some momentum and there is a report circulating that Ukrainian forces are beginning to withdraw from Selydove (8-9 miles southeast of Pokrovsk) (Russian press reports that some units have already withdrawn). There are no major prepared defensive lines between Selydove and the Pokrovsk defensive lines that circle the town, presenting the possibility that Russian forces would be able to close on the southern edge of Pokrovsk within a few days to a week. 

Russian gains were also noted immediately east of Pokrovsk as wells to the south-east near Hirnyk and further to the south-east.

Further south, more incremental Russian gains were noted in the Hostre area, and that town does in fact appear to be in Russian hands, and Russian forces are pushing further west and pushed into Maksymilyanivka, as was suspected yesterday.

Further south, Russian force continue to push west and north from the general Vuhledar area. Russian forces were confirmed to have pushed into Zolota Nyva, 7 miles south-east of Velyka Novosilke on the T-0509 roadway.

  The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) report more Russian ground probes and air strikes near Orikhiv  and further east to Hulyaipole, but there were no changes inthe front line. The UGS also noted small raids along the Dnepr River near Kherson.

There are continued reports of Russian operations in and around Kamyanske and Plavni (on the now dry shore of the Kakhovka Reservoir), attacking from the west (from what was the reservoir), and reports suggest that both Russian and Ukrainian forces are now pushing into what was the reservoir to set up defensive positions. 

Air Operations

On the night of 6 - 7 October Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander class ballistic missile, 2 x cruise missiles (1 x Kh-59, 1 unknown) and 80 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. Later during the morning of the 7th, 3 x Kh-47 Kinzhal missiles were also fired into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 2 Kinzhals, and 32 drones and the 37 drones “got lost,” (were defeated by electronic warfare).

Kyiv city officials reported data to residential areas, Russian sources said an ammo dump was hit in Odessa.

Ukrainian officials later admitted that a Russian “hypersonic missile” (Kinzhal) had hit near Starokostiantyniv airbase (about 125 miles east of Lviv). The Russain insist the airfield was hit by tow Kinzhals.

On the 7th at least 2 x Kinzhal missiles were engaged by Ukrainian Patriot batteries over Kyiv and the UAF claimed other were shot down. 

Politics and Diplomacy

There is a report circulating (just a little while ago - not on the Financial Times home page), the Financial Times is reporting “secret” (not anymore) negotiations of a proposal in which Russia would retain de facto control of Ukrainian terrain it now occupies while Ukraine would retain sovereignty, and Ukraine would be allowed to join NATO.

President Zelenskyy’s office announced that the 2nd Peace Summit will not take place in November; the actual date will be determined during several prep conferences to be held in October.

Ukrainian Prime Minster Shmyhal commented yesterday that Russia is smuggling Ukrainian grain out of Mariupol.

"Russia continues to use food as an element of aggression. This year, the enemy has smuggled more than 180,000 tonnes of stolen Ukrainian grain through the port of Mariupol alone.”

"Undoubtedly, Russian economic terror will be one of the areas of work of the special tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

Polish farmers are planning to once again block shipments of Ukrainian agricultural products across the border, according to the Ukrainian Customs Service, which announced that;

”Based on information from the Polish side, local farmers have announced a possible protest action in the form of blocking lorry traffic at the Medyka-Shehyni checkpoint from 8 October to 31 December 2024." 

Republic of Korea (ROK) Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun commented 0n North Korea soldiers serving with, and dying, the Russians in Ukraine:

"The issue of deploying regular troops is highly likely, due to the mutual agreements that resemble a military alliance between Russia and North Korea… We assess that the occurrence of casualties among North Korean officers and soldiers in Ukraine is highly likely, considering various circumstances. More North Korean troops could be deployed in the war, from how we look at it.”

Unconfirmed Ukrainian news reports suggest that 6 North Korean soldiers were killed and 3 wounded in a missile strike on October 3rd. 

North Korea has provided a good deal of support to Russia, to include at least 13,000 containers of ammunition.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Oct7 Oct8

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 79.75 77.30

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 76.22 73.59

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.82 2.74

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.90 5.93

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 96.40 96.83

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.78 40.89 41.18 41.22

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 73.30 73.30

ESPO   67.02      65 77 77

Sokol 70.82 66.23 70.35 72.10

Thoughts

As for the Financial Times story, the proposal, which the Financial Times compares to West Germany’s status during the Cold War (also reminiscent of the situation on the Korean Peninsula) would really seem to be a simple agreement on a ceasefire. Once that is done, then, as in Korea, defenses can be put in place that would make any attack a much more difficult proposition, and both sides would begin arming up, and rebuilding.

Of course, both sides need to agree to terms of the ceasefire…

If there is more to this, I would suspect it will be widespread with a few hours.

As noted yesterday, the Russians appear to be swinging south of Pokrovsk even as they extend the arms of a pincer further south, presenting a situation in which they may generate a large pocket to trap some Ukrainian troops south of the Pokrovsk salient, while also setting up attacks on Pokkrovsk from the east and south. 

While the autumn rains fall on both defender and attacker alike, it would seem that the rains will benefit the Ukrainians more than the Russians. But we shall see...

v/r pete

757-582-9182

peter@obrienconsultinginc.com

Refer to the dog's name