October 4th, 2024 1957 Sputnik 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - No change around Kursk

- Small, steady Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Politics - Moldova: Russian Election Tampering?

Weather

Rain in the forecast over much of Ukraine during the next few days, the rains of autumn may have arrived, and with it the reduced mobility and the horrid living conditions for troops on the front lines.

Kharkiv

70 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy to cloudy through Monday, rain on Tuesday. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

69 and mostly cloudy, gusting near 20. Sunny or mostly sunny through the weekend, rain Monday. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

57 and cloudy. Rain tonight and for the next three days, tapering off Tuesday morning. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Ukrainian and Russian forces continue probing and shooting but there were no confirmed gains anywhere on the perimeter of the Kursk salient, or around the edge of the smaller incursion further west.

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces were active near Hlyboke (due north of Kharkiv) and near Tykhe and Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv) but there were no confirmed gains.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces continue to apply pressure along much of the line of contact, and particularly west of Pishchane, and in the vicinity of Makiivka, but there were no confirmed gains in the last 24 hours.

Bakhmut

North-east of Bakhmut (about 8 miles) Russian forces had confirmed gains in the vicinity of Vesele. Russian forces are attempting to clear a series of small towns in the area (Vesele, Vyimka, Ivana-Darivka) and Ukrainian forces continue to manage a mobile defense that is shifting forces around ahead of Russian movement and preventing the Russians from taking and holding these towns,

West of of Bakhmut saw continued Russian attacks: just north of Chasiv Yar, just east of Chasiv Yar and to the south, east of Stupochky and east of Bila Hora, but the Russians had no confirmed gains in any area.

Further south, to the west of Horlivka, reporting suggests the Russians continue to push into Toretsk and the towns immediately north-east, and to the south, but there were no confirmed gains in this area.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continued to make gains in the direction of Pokrovsk; and advanced just to the east and southeast of Pokrovsk; of particular note there were more confirmed gains in  in Lysivka, just south-east of Pokrovsk as well as several smaller towns further to the south-east. It also appears that Tsukuryne is in fact in Russian hands, and that Russian forces are pressing on the E-50 roadway north of Selydove.

There was no confirmed movement of Russian forces west of Heorhivka. However, blogger reports provide credible information that Russian forces have nearly reached the eastern end of the Vovcha River Reservoir, which effectively extends the southern boundary of a developing encirclement of Ukrainian troops south of the Pokrovsk salient.

South-west of Donetsk City Russian forces are pressing north-west from the Vodyane area (north-east of Vuhleadr) and roughly north from the Prechystivka area (west of Vuhledar), headed towards the town of Bohoyavlenka and Novoukrainka. This is the obvious next piece of terrain to carve out after the fall of Vuhledar and would be tied into further advances from Kostyantynivka to the north and from Velyka Novosilke. To accomplish any of that they will need to keep moving as the rains start and the roads turn to mud. It is not clear at this point the extent of Ukrainian forces in this area nor the extent of Ukrainian defenses.

Southern Ukraine

Combat operations were reported across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. Russian sources did report some small ground gains by Russian forces south of Orikhiv, but this has not been confirmed. Russian sources also claimed that Russian Spetsnaz elements cleared several islands in the Dnepr, but this also has not been confirmed.

Special Operations and Partisans

Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR), possibly working with Ukrainian partisans, planted a bomb under the car of Andriy Korotky, director of security at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), branded as a collaborator and traitor. Korotky was killed by the bomb this morning at the ZNPP.

Air Operations

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted fairly extensive drone strikes into Ukrainian and Russian air space, respectively. 

Russian forces launched 105 x Shahed drones into 6 different oblasts, and the UAF claimed it shot down 78 drones, 23 other drones “became lost” (defeated with electronic warfare systems), and 1 other drone flew into Belarus. The results from the other 3 drones were not reported.

Ukrainian sources also noted that the Kiev area was struck with 5 glide bombs. This is obviously of note as the smaller FAB 500  glide bombs weigh 1100 lbs (500KG) and carry an explosive charge of 440lbs, while the largest Shahed warhead is only 110 lbs, and the smaller warhead is 33 lbs.

Russian forces launched another 19 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space this morning - with no reports yet from the UAF. 

Meanwhile, Russian sources claimed they shot down 113 x Ukrainian forces launched into Russian air space yesterday; how many were not shot down was not reported, and there are reports of fires today at the Voronezh oil depot.

It is worth noting that there is sometimes an adjustment of numbers engaged depending on how many the other side reports...

Politics

The Chief of Moldova’s National Police reported that pro-Russian factions inside Moldova are paying Moldovans to vote against Moldova joining the European Union, and that $15 million has been spent so far, with more than 130,000 Moldovans accepting bribes, which would average out to about $115 apiece.

Moldovan per capita income is $7500, the average monthly salary (for 2023) was $686 (11,980 Leu).

 

A Moscow court ordered Stephen Hubbard, a US citizen, to be tried in secret. Hubbard has been charged with being a mercenary.

Hubbard joined a Ukrainian unit in February 2022, and was captured on April 2nd, 2022. Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported that he had confessed, and sentencing is to be announced in October 7th.

His family says that Hubbard is a life-long pacifist and that the charges are completely false.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Oct3 Oct4

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 75.70 78.13

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 72.02 74.24

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.97 2.86

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 6.15 6.04

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 95.11 95.25

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.78 40.89 41.22 41.16

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 68.85 71.56

ESPO   67.02      65 77 77

Sokol 70.82 66.23 68.12 70.52

Thoughts

I mis-spoke yesterday; my understanding was that the active recruiting for the Ukrainian Legion (to be manned by Ukrainian men currently in Europe) began on Monday. In fact, recruiting has been going on all summer and training for the first elements was originally planned to actually begin in Poland on September 1st (and would have ended today); with the hope that there were going to be enough volunteers to man at least “several brigades.” (A brigade is nominally 3,000 troops). In fact, according to the Polish Ministry of Defense, “about 300 men have volunteered,” and other reporting suggested the number was less than 200.

 As a reminder, there are in excess of  800,000 eligible Ukrainian males in Europe.

While there is not enough imagery to confirm gains and losses, there is reporting that suggests Russian gains continue beyond what can be confirmed. In particular, there is credible reporting that Russian forces pushing west from Pishchane have made more gains and are now within 2,000 meters of the Oskil River. There is also credible reporting  that the first elements of Russian forces are now within 5,000 meters of Pokrovsk, and the Estonian General Staff G2 (Intelligence Officer) assessment is that Ukraine will need to abandon Pokrovsk before the end of the year.

The one clear positive for Ukraine right now is the arrival of wet fall weather. If it has in fact arrived, this may slow Russian action to a de facto halt.

But I will close with what must be disturbing to Kyiv: that 800,000+ military age Ukrainian men (some estimates put the number at well over 1 million) were not interested in joining the Ukrainian Legion speaks volumes. Add this on top of the anecdotal stories of scores of Ukrainians stopped every week trying to get across the frontiers into Moldova and Romania, and the average age of the army now 45, up from 42.5 just a year ago, and there is clearly a morale issue in the Ukrainian forces. Morale in practical terms equates to will, and war is, as Clausewitz said more than once, a contest of wills.

v/r pete