October 2nd, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Russia takes Vuhledar

- Small Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Politics  - Ukrainian POWs executed 

Weather

Kharkiv

71 and sunny. Mostly sunny tomorrow, partly cloudy to cloudy through middle of next week. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

69 and sunny. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

64 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy to cloudy this week, rain Friday night through Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs near 70. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

There are conflicting claims of gains by both sides but there are no significant confirmed gains by either side. There are, however, anecdotal reports, that agree with minor changes in the various blogger maps that suggest Russian forces continue to slowly take back the edges of the Ukrainian holdings inside Russia, slowly working into the salient from the west and form the south-east and north-east corners.

Interestingly, the Ukrainian Northern Command reports that a large slice of the Russian forces around the salient are conscripts and border guards, that is, troops with very little training; they are holding.

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces made small, confirmed gains north-east of Kharkiv inside Vovchansk, and appear to be moving toward the aggregate plant again. There were no other changes to the lines.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces made confirmed gains west of Makiivka (abut 12 miles north-west of Kreminna) and are now definitely operating west of the Zherebets River. Gains were also noted southeast of Kupyansk and due west of Svatove, and Russian forces continue to press west from Pishchane towards the Oskil but there were no confirmed gains in the front line in this area.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no noted changes in the front line.

West of Bakhmut Russian forces appear to have been stopped by the Ukrainian forces just east of Stupchoky. A bit further south there is a good deal of difference in the various reports as to how far west Russian forces have come and how near they are to Bila Hora, with some reports suggesting they are fighting on the eastern edge of the town, others suggesting that Russian forces are still 2 miles east of the town.

Further south, west of Horlivka, Russian forces continue to grind slowly into Toretsk and appear to be closing on the center of the town. There are conflicting reports on Russian forces immediately south of Toretsk, with some sources saying that Russian forces have been stopped just west of Zalizne and just north of Niu York, others suggesting that Russia forces have pushed further west and have reached eastern Leonidivka; there is no way right now to sort that out.

Donetsk City

Russian forces west of Donetsk continue to grind out gains as they approach Pokrovsk and the area south-east of Pokrovsk. Imagery confirmed Russian forces in Tsukuryne (12 miles south-east to Pokrovsk, immediately south-west of Ukrainsk) and other Russian elements are pressing westward from positions both north and south of Selydove. Russian forces also continue to press westward into and through Lysivka (just 5 miles south-east of Pokrovsk, and just to the north of that town the two towns of Krasnyi Yar and Krutyi Yar are now in Russian hands.

Russian force south of the salient continuento press west from Hostre, and the Nevelske pocket continues to slowly close up.

Russian forces have occupied Vuhledar; unconfirmed reports suggest that the last Ukrainian forces withdrew during the night of September 30th and Russian forces moved in yesterday morning.

Russian forces are now attacking north-west from Vodyane towards Bohoyavlenka (about 4 - 5 miles) and, further west, are attacking north towards Velyka Novosilke.

Southern Ukraine 

Russian force continue to probe north from positions north-west, north and north-east of Robotyne, but there were no noted changes in the front line..

Air Operations 

Over the night of 01 - 02 October Russian forces launched 32 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace, targeting infrastructure targets in Kirovohrad, Odessa and Sumy Oblasts. The UAF claimed it shot down 11 drones.

Initial damage reports from Odessa noted several fires started, a military checkout damaged and at least 3 wounded.

Over the night of 30 September Russian forces launched 32 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space; the UAF claimed it shot down 29 drones and 3 drones failed to reach their targets (were defeated with electronic warfare systems).   

Politics and Diplomacy

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has set aside $825 million to assist Ukraine’s energy sector this coming winter, twice the amount provided last year, as well as $237 million in humanitarian assistance.

The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (UNHRMU) reported “pervasive torture” of Ukrainian POWs. They also reported that Russian POWs were tortured in the initial stages of captivity but that it stopped once the Russian POWs were passed to official holding facilities. Danielle Bell, head of UNHRMU, noted that the mistreatment between Russian and Ukrainian POWs was “different in scope and scale.”

A report has surfaced - and is being investigated by Ukraine’s Prosecutor General - that 16 Ukrainian POWs were executed by Russian soldiers after surrendering near Pokrovsk.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Oct1 Oct2

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 74.90 75.80

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 71.37 72.18

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.89 2.97

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.84 5.99

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 95.80 94.56

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.78 40.89 41.31 41.27

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 66.44 69.27

ESPO   67.02      65 77 77

SOKOL 70.82 66.23 65.35 68.14

Thoughts

Vuhledar fell. 

Russian forces will now press north and west from Vuhledar but, there is no reason to expect the Russians to change their tactics; the move will be slow and will likely be slower than other movements this summer, as the autumn rains will soon come and make movements more difficult.

While the imminent approach of the autumn rains would suggest that the Russians would move faster, they have shown little propensity to change their tactics or SOP in the last year or more; I would expect a very deliberate, doctrinally consistent (Russian army doctrine) approach to moving west and north, that they will attempt to keep their lines more or less straight, avoid creating de facto Ukrainian salients, and that they will bring in their own engineers and build some new defensive positions as they move forward.

The Ukrainian army needs to build a fully formed defensive line west (and north) of their current positions and fall in on them and hold - more simply, the Ukrainian effort on the ground isn’t really working; they need to try something different. It is worth noting that the Ukrainian army less than a year ago had an average age between 42 and 43; now it is 45. 

The Russian army, at least from Toretsk south, seems to be making slow but steady progress. If the weather and roads permit, it would seem they will just continue as they have been doing for the last year.

v/r pete