April 30th, 2025  

Politics - Talking points from Trump - Zelenskyy meeting?

Combat Ops - Incremental Russian gains

Weather

Kharkiv

67 and partly cloudy. Mostly cloudy for the next week; rain possible on Thursday. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds westerly, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

69 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy into Friday, then mostly sunny for several days. Daily lows in the 40s, highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

64 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy and windy tomorrow, sunny Friday, then cloudy and thunderstorms for the following four days. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 15-20kts and gusting higher.

Politics and Diplomacy

Axios is claiming they know what was discussed during the Trump - Zelenskyy tete-a-tete. Two anonymous sources (are there any other kind?) reported that there was no planned meeting, but it was assumed they would bump into each other.

Key points Zelenskyy raised include:

Putin will not budge except under more pressure from Trump

US needs to return to original plan for a ceasefire as a prelude to negotiations 

Ukraine will never admit Russian sovereignty over Crimea

Willing to make concessions for a peace agreement

Trump noted:

He may have to change his approach to Putin

Agreement with the need for a ceasefire first

He isn’t asking Ukraine to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea

Rare earth agreement needs to be signed

I’m not sure any of this would fall under the title of revelation; more appropriate would probably be “BFO.”

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces continue to inch forward towards the border, both in Kursk oblast, and Belgorod, squeezing what remains of Ukrainian elements attempting to hold ground along the borders. Russian gains have been confirmed in imagery, yet there is also no question that there is fighting taking place, that small elements of Ukrainian troops are holding on, and it would seem this has become a DIP (Die In Place) mission. You truly have to admire their guts, but there is little chance for withdrawal or reinforcement.

North-east of Sumy Russian forces had confirmed gains in Bilovody (just north-west of Loknya) and fighting continues in both of those towns.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continues in Vovchansk and to the east of Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

North of Kupyansk, following the arc of the Oskli river, Russian sources claimed Russian gains generally westward at multiple points along the line but none of these gains would be confirmed. In Kamyanka - near the Russian border - fighting appears to be quite intense and Russian efforts to reinforce their position in the town involves setting up a pontoon bridge across the Oskil, and the Ukrainian counter is attacking the bridge and making it very difficult for the Russians to get the bridge fully operational.

South of Kupyansk - east of Borova, and further south, west of Terny, fighting continues along the line, but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues in and around Hryhorivka (west of Bilohorivka), and further south near Verkhnokamyanske, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. As noted yesterday, the strange nature of the fighting in this area is that these towns have traded hands regularly for the last 2 years...

Russian sources are claiming that Russian forces have pushed into Stuposhky and into open terrain immediately west of Chasiv Yar, but this has not been confirmed.

If, in fact, Russian forces have pushed into the field west of Chasiv Yar, that would suggest that the last pockets of Ukrainian troops on the western edge of Chasiv Yar proper have either been withdrawn or overrun.

Fighting was also reported south of Chasiv Yar near Bila Hora.

Further south, in the Toretsk area, Ukrainian forces counter-attacked in Shcherbynivka (west of Toretsk) and made gains on the south side of that town. At the same time Russian sources reported Russian forces conducted assaults north, west and south of the town.

DONETSK CITY

At the north-east corner of the Pokrovsk salient, Russian forces claimed gains near Vodyane Druhe and neighboring towns - all located near - east of - the major bend north in the T0504 roadway.

Activity continues along the entire perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient, with combat ops reported in and around 28 different towns or villages, with confirmed Russian gains in the town of Shevchenko, about 3 miles south-west of Pokrovsk. Unconfirmed claims of Russian gains were reported in multiple sites both east and west of Pokrovsk, as well as on the south side of the salient. Seven towns just west of the western edge of the salient have been order to evacuate.

Immediately south of the salient Russian forces had confirmed gains moving westward along the N-15 (also labeled H-15) roadway, west of Rozlyv, and Russian forces are attacking the southern edge of Bahatyr.

North-west of Velyka Novosilke Russian forces continue to attack north-west along the Vilne Pole to Vesele line but there were no confirmed gains.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues both west of and south-east of Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Air Operations

During the night of April 29th - April 30th Russian forces launched 108 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 50 drones, and 22 drones  were “lost” (due to EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts.

During the night of April 28th Russian forces launched 100 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 37 drones, and 47 drones were “lost” (due to EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Kyiv oblasts.

Ukrainian drones reportedly struck an explosives factory in Nizhny Novgorod (a bit over 200 miles east of Moscow) on the night of April 28th, with two drones striking the factory, leaving it on fire. There is still no assessment of actual damage.

Russian strike totals since March 11th - the date of the US proposal for a ceasefire - include: 8,500 x glide bombs (FAB-500 and FAB-1500), 200+ missiles of various types, and 3,000+ x Shahed drones.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr29 Apr30

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 64.79 63.34

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 61.16 59.53

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.32 3.29

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.32 5.36

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 81.77 81.99

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.56

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 N/A 58.35

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 N/A N/A

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 62.99 59.08

Looking at the full spread of oil prices, virtually every crude was down, some just a little, some quite a bit.

Overall, the decline in oil prices, said to average out to the largest price drop  since late 2021, reflects reduced demand as a result of slowing economies in the shadow of the ongoing trade and tariff disputes.

At the same time OPEC+ is reportedly considering keeping production at an elevated level in an effort to politically assuage all members, which would mean more surpluses and softer prices, all unwelcome economic news for Russia.

Thoughts 

Several small items that may be illuminating facets of the overall war:

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, with the Army’s Medical Forces Command, has ordered that all schedules for health care workers be “annulled,” which effectively makes them more readily available to support army operations, if necessary.

There are multiple reasons why they might do this, but it would seem the most likely is an increase in casualties, either being suffered (the fighting is worse than expected), or more casualties are expected (either an increase in Russian attacks, or Ukraine is prepping for a counter-attack).

The Times of London was apparently allowed to hear some of the discussion between Adm. Radakin (UK Chief of  the Defense Staff) and some of his counterparts across Europe, after Radakin asked about the possibility of a 64,000 man combined European security force to be deployed into Ukraine as part of a ceasefire and peace agreement.

The answer was that collectively Europe would have a hard time assembling and sustaining a 25,000 man force.

But, as the old warning goes: too few to fight, too many to die.

Again, Europe has 450 million people and a GDP of $18 trillion, yet it cannot sustain a deployment of 25,000 - on the same continent. Hmmmmm

And finally, the Republic of Korea National Intelligence Service reports that the North Koreans suffered 600 KIAs in 5 months of fighting. 

600 dead out of 15,000 serving for 5 months in an attrition style war is credible, and is just a little worse than the Russian KIA rate, particularly given the initial tactical mistakes made by the NK troops. Assuming this number is roughly correct, it falls in line with overall Russian KIAs of 100,000 since the start of the war.

These three points would seem to add a few more details to what we already know: Ukrainian casualties are climbing, Russian casualties are not as bad as is claimed, Putin has - in the North Korea troops - found the ultimate answer to his manpower problems (which means he wins the war of attrition), and Europe remains incapable of standing on its own.

If Europe wants a solution to this problem that Europe would control, it would seem the only answer lies in the nuclear forces of France and the UK. Other than that, the answer is the US.

v/r pete      

 April 29th, 2025  

Politics - Peskov say “No” on 30 day ceasefire

- 400,000 rounds of155MM ammo

Combat ops - Russian gains at multiple points

- Russian SOF raid across Dnepr

Weather

Kharkiv

65 and sunny, gusting over 25. Clouding up tonight, and then mostly cloudy for the rest of the week; rain on Thursday and again on the weekend. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds westerly, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

61 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny or partly cloudy all week; daily lows in the 40s, highs in the upper 60s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

63 and cloudy, gusting over 35. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, rain Thursday morning and again on the weekend,Thursday, like today, will see gusts over 30.  Daily lows in the 40s, highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 15-20kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Kremlin Spokesman Peskov commented President Zelenskyy’s suggestion to extend the May 8th 72-hour ceasefire to a full 30 days: “It would be difficult to enter into a long-term ceasefire without first clearing up a number of questions.”

Czech DefMin Černochova announced that the Czech ammo initiative will deliver 400,000 rounds of 155MM to Ukraine by the end of this month, and the intention is to provide 125,000 rounds per month for the rest of the year.

One curious note: Natalia Dmitrieva, sister of President Putin’s main envoy Kirill Dmitriev, was in Ukraine from 8 February to 12 February, traveling on a US Passport.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Two small pockets of Ukrainian troops remain inside Kursk Oblast, pressed up against the border, with one group near the town of Oleshnya (about a mile south of the H07 - R-200 roadway), the other on the south side of the town of Gornal (also along the border, about 7 miles south-east of Oleshnya). It is not clear as to how many Ukrainian troops remain at each location, but it is certainly no more than 200 at each.

Further south, north-west of Belgorod, several more small pockets of Ukrainian troops remain just inside Russia. Russian forces continue to use artillery and drones to reduce the Ukraine force, which again, is probably note more than several hundred in each of several pockets.

Russian troops inside Ukraine, north-east of Sumy, made small gains west of Loknya, pushing into unoccupied terrain outside of the small towns and outside of Ukrainian defensive positions.  

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continues in the vicinity of Vovchansk and further east near the town of Tykhe. Ukrainian army reporting suggests an increase in Russian artillery and drone activity in the last few days, and notes that some Russian forces rotated out, but that the overall number of Russian troops in the area appears to have increased.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Imagery confirmed that Russian forces control Kamyanka (on the West Bank of the Oskil, near the Russian border) and are pushing out from the town. Further down the river, still north of Kupyansk, Russian forces are pushing west and north-west along most of the front between Kamyanka and Zapadne, and Russian forces are reporting small gains along most that front, though these have not been confirmed.

South of Kupyansk, in the area east and north-east of Borova, there were multiple reports of fighting but no changes in the front lines.

Further south, west of Terny, Russian forces were attacking along most of the line from just west of the Zherebets River near Kolodiazi to Nove to Novyi Mir. No changes in the front lines were confirmed, but Ukrainian army reporting noted repeated attacks and substantial Russian manpower advantages; 10 to 1 was claimed but that is unlikely. In most cases the Russian forces are attacking in very small teams - 3 to 5 men, a rifle team. There are multiple rifle teams, but the numbers are deliberately kept low, preventing clusters of people that would be a lucrative target for an artillery barrage.

BAKHMUT

North and north-east of Bakhmut Russian forces gain ground, operating just west of Bilohorivka, just south of the Donets River, in the vicinity of the - now abandoned - village of Hyrhorivka. Just south of the village is local high ground, the village proper is on the north slope pf the hill, sloping down to the river. Russian forces also made gains due south of Hryhorivka (east of Siversk), in the terrain outside of Verkhnokamyanske. As a reminder, this general area has traded hands repeatedly since spring of 2022 (when Hryhorivka was abandoned). There is nothing specific to suggest that this gain on the ground is any different from the dozen previous times the town has changed hands.

West of Bakhmut fighting continues on the west edge of Chasiv Yar, just west in Stupochky, just south near Bila Hora, and just north of the town. But here were no confirmed changes in the from line. More fighting was also reported west of the Donets Canal, west of Kurdiumivka.

Further south, Russian forces in and around Toretsk have pushed north of the town and reached a position about a quarter miles west of the town of Dachne, at a small dam on the east end of a reservoir. This reservoir is the first in a string of reservoirs and irrigation channels that run to the north-west about 9 miles and terminates about 3 miles due south of Kostyantynivka.

Further south, Russian forces also gained ground north-west of Sukha Balka, as they continue to work to straighten their lines.

DONETSK CITY

Russian forces were active across most of its Pokrovsk perimeter, with assaults reported in 19 separate towns along the edge of the salient; there were no confirmed gains, but there were Russian claims of gains near Uspenivka 

Immediately south of the salient Russian forces were active pressing westward along a line from the small town of Zaporizhzhia to the eastern edge of Oleksiivka, to Kostiantinopil to Rozlyv to just south of Bahatyr, but there were no confirmed gains by Russian forces.

Further south, along the Novosilke to Vesele line, Russian attacks continued, but there were no changes to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues both west and south-east from Orikhiv, but there were no changes in the front line.

Along the Dnepr River there are reports that Russian forces not only control the islands of the Dnepr, but are now making raids into Kherson during the evening, crossing near and raiding into Tyahinka (about 16 miles up river from Kherson). Tyahynka is a small town of about 300, located where a small river (the Tyahynka River) flows into the Dnepr. The town was used as a site for staging some small boat activity that supported Ukrainian special operations personnel raiding into the east bank last year. 

Air Operations

During the night of April 28th Russian forces launched 100 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 37 drones, and 47 drones  unknown number of drones were “lost” (due to EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Kyiv oblasts.

During the night of April 27th Russian forces launched 166 x 40 Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 40 drones, and 74 drones were “lost” (due to EW). Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.

During the night of April 27th Ukrainian forces struck the Kremniy El electronics plant in Bryansk City (about 60miles north of the Ukraine border. Damage is unknown but a fire was reported at the facility. Russian Air Defense Forces claimed they shot down 102 Drones last night.

Russian tacair conducted strikes on at least 24 Ukrainian towns in the last 24 hours.

The UAF SU-27 Flanker lost early yesterday was providing Class Air Support to Ukrainian ground forces when it was damaged and the pilot forced to eject. There is speculation that the Flanker was struck by a Russian drone.

The pilot was recovered and is stable and recovering.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr28 Apr29

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 66.17 64.79

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 62.42 61.16

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.09 3.32

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.28 5.32

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 83.00 81.77

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.69 41.55

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 N/A N/A

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 N/A N/A

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 62.99 62.99

Of interest, blended crude, a mix of Russian ESPO crude and Iranian crude, is trading between 61.57 and 70.77 per barrel in Shandong, China, price dependent on the specific mix.

Total Ukrainian government debt increased by $2.64 billion in March and now stands at $171 billion. Total debt was $98 billion at the start of the war.

Thoughts 

Moscow - and President Putin - continues to view the war as one that they are winning and so he refuses to yield on negotiations, essentially waiting for more concessions from the US, Ukraine and the EU. Statements by ForMin Lavrov continue to sound the standing Russian talking points of “elimination of root causes” and international recognition of Russian territories (Crimea and the 4 oblasts: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia).

That wild change if Putin were to change his mind; the key remains changing Putin’s mind - and his will.

It would seem apparent that the US is going to have to significantly tighten the sanctions if it is to get Russia, to get Putin, to move. And the obvious means to do that is through 3rd party embargo, while driving down the cost of oil.

v/r  pete