April 21st, 2025  

Politics - US and Ukrainian Negotiation Teams meet

- Trump expresses hope

- WSJ reports on supposed plan

Combat Ops - 1 Day truce on Easter 

- Each side accused the other of hundreds of violations 

Weather

Kharkiv

73 and sunny. Mostly sunny until Friday afternoon, then clouding up, rain showers over the weekend. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds easterly, 5kts.

Melitopol

68 and mostly cloudy. Mostly sunny through Wednesday morning, then three days of thunderstorms. Daily lows around 50, daily highs mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

76 and sunny, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny this week until Thursday afternoon, cloudy Friday, Rainy Friday night. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Wednesday through Friday last week US and Ukrainian official, to include SecState Rubio, Special Envoys Kellogg and Witkoff met with DefMin Umerov, ForMin Sybiha and Pres. COS Yermak. The Ukrainian team reiterated they wanted to work with the US to establish a permanent peace; Rubio reiterated that the US needs to know in the near term (“a matter of days”) that the war can be resolved, that both sides want a ceasefire and peace, than the US is ready to help. If not, President Trump is  "probably at a point where he's going to say, well, we're done.”

Separately, President Trump expressed hope for an agreement  

"Hopefully Russia and Ukraine will make a deal this week. Both will then start to do big business with the United States of America, which is thriving, and make a fortune.”

President Putin declared an Easter Truce from sundown on Saturday until midnight on Sunday.

It is worth noting that, while both sides accused the other of hundreds of violations (President Zelenskyy accused the Russian of 2,995 violations), there was, in fact, a truce in some sections of the line, for a few hours. One might suggest that was a start.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that a US proposal has been provided to the government in Kyiv, and that the plan includes recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, creating a neutral zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) and a statement that Ukraine will not join NATO.

The proposal is to be discussed at a meeting between the US and Ukraine in London at the end of the week

Ground Operations

President Putin announced an Easter ceasefire, and it was honored at some places during the day, though both accused the other side of breaking the ceasefire up and down the front line, and drone and artillery strikes were reported at multiple sites along the front line, from both sides. But there does seem to have been a substantive drop in the amount of fighting taking place over the weekend and particular on Sunday.

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces appear to have pushed into the small border town of Oleshnya, just on the Russian side of the border, on the 19th. Oleshnya (a farming village of perhaps 20 houses)  and Gornal, are the last two towns held by Ukrainian forces. This reduces Ukrainian holding to what remains of Gornal, and isolated pockets of Ukrainian units in the tree lines just east of the border.

A few miles to the south of Oleshnya, Ukrainian forces continue to hold in Gornal, where fighting was described as “fierce.”

And north-west of Belgorod, fighting continued near Demidovka and Popovka, with Russians forces claiming they control both towns and Ukrainian forces insisting they still hold parts of Popovka.

Fighting continued inside Kursk Oblast, as Putin stated that there would be no ceasefire on Russian territory.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

There was some activity in the Vovchansk area on Saturday but no changes in the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS

Fighting continued along most of the line of contact on a Friday and Saturday, and Russian forces claimed to have occupied Novomykhailivka, north-west of Terny, on the 20th, but there were no other confirmed or reported changes in the front line over the weekend.

BAKHMUT

North and north-east of Bakhmut bloggers reported Russian and Ukrainian forces attacking on the 19th, but there were no changes in the front lines.

In the Chasiv Yar area both sides reported being shelled on the 20th, but there were no changes to the front lines.

Further south, in the Toretsk area, Russian forces made gains on the 19th, pushing into Shcherbynivka (just south-west of Toretsk) and Russian forces appear to have regained virtually all of the terrain around Toretsk that Ukrainian forces reclaimed in late February and early March.

DONETSK CITY

Immediately north of the Pokrovsk salient, Russian forces appear to have made some gains in the Velentynivka area, again working to fill in the would-be salients and straightening the line.

Fighting was reported along much of the perimeter of the salient on the 19th and on the 20th, with each side pointing at the other for the cause of the fighting on the 20th. Based on the reporting, there is no dispositive report that establishes blame.

Fighting was reported at multiple sites on the 19th, but there does not appear to have been any change in the front lines of the Pokrovsk salient.

Immediately south of the salient the lines also remain unchanged, with fierce fighting reported in and around Kostyantynopil.

North-west of Velyka Novosilke Russian forces on Saturday continued to attack north-west but the line appears to remain unchanged between Vesele and Vilne Pole.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces attacked near Stepove on Saturday and engaged in artillery strikes across the front line near Pyatykhatky and eastward from there to Mali Shcherbaky. Bloggers noted multiple ceasefire violations by the other side. 

Along the Dnepr, both sides continue to engage artillery and mortar fire across the river.

Air Operations

During the day on April 21st a ballistic missile struck Odessa.

During the night of April 20th Russian forces launched 3 x cruise missiles and 96 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down all three cruise missiles and 42 cruise missiles, and 47 drones were lost (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts.

During the night of April 19th and during the day of the 20th Russian forces observed an Easter ceasefire.

During the night of April 18th Russian forces launched at least 3 x ballistic missiles into Kharkiv, damaging 21 buildings and 40 houses, killing 1 civilian and wounding 98. Russian forces also launched 87 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 33 drones and 36 were “lost” (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Odessa and Sumy oblasts.

Final count for the night of April 17th and morning of the 18th: Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 5 x Iskander cruise missiles and 37 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space (original report was 75). The UAF claimed it shot down 3 cruise missiles, and also shot down 23 drones, while 10 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv oblasts.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr18 Apr21

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 67.96 66.14

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 64.68 63.00

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.25 3.07

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.61 5.56

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.00 81.25

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.37 41.41

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 51.00 53.50

ESPO 78.19 UNK 71.50 70 60.40 NC

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 64.48 63.52

 

Thoughts 

The talks last week, and the statement SecState Rubio made several times that there needs to be a sign that both sides want peace - said to the Ukrainian delegation - are, I think, consistent with the proposal that the Wall Street Journal put forward.

I’m inferring here, but I think the position of the US team is that there is no chance, irrespective of the investment, of Ukrainian forces pushing Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine. What needs to happen - again from the US team’s perspective, is that the Ukrainian government needs to accept that as fact and then negotiate from there. Until it does so there can be no meaningful movement towards a ceasefire or a peace treaty. 

As for the statement “a matter of days,” this simply suggests that there is an expectation for a decision prior to the meeting in London this week. And it also serves as a mechanism for Trump and Rubio to apply more pressure on the system to push Kyiv to make some hard concessions in order to achieve peace. 

Said differently, Trump is trying to force Ukraine to admit that they are losing the war and that there is little chance for them to win it; a harsh reality but one that is going to be necessary if there is going to be an end to the fighting.

As for the one day Easter ceasefire does point out the difficulties in any ceasefire: the agreement to actually stop shooting, the monitoring of the ceasefire, a means for each side to talk to the other and prevent mistakes from escalating, etc.

v/r pete