April 24th, 2025  

Politics - 7 Point Peace Proposal by US

- Talks continue on Rare Earths 

- Trump comments on talks, says both sides ready.

Combat Ops - Minor gains both sides

- Large missile and drone strike

Weather

Kharkiv

80 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

78 and cloudy, rain showers. Cloudy, thunderstorms today through Saturday. Daily lows in the low 50, daily highs mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

76 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy for the next week, except Saturday, overcast and rain. For the next several days, lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 70s. Then temperatures will drop and Saturday through Monday will see lows in the upper 30s and highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Several sources are reporting on peace proposal offers by the Trump administration in early April. The plan has 7 major points:

1) An immediate ceasefire

2) Ukraine and Russia would begin talks for a permanent peace

3) Ukraine would not Jon NATO, but could join the EU

4) De Jure Recognition of Crimea as Russian, de facto recognition of most of currently occupied eastern Ukraine as Russian

- Russian forces withdraw from Kharkiv oblast they currently hold

- Ukraine would have unhindered access to all of the Dnepr River

5) The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) would be considered to be Ukrainian territory

- But would be operated by the US

- Would proved power to both Ukraine and Russia

6) Ukraine provided security guarantees - details not released

7) All Sanctions on Russia since 2014 lifted, Ukraine to receive compensation and reconstruction assistance

President Zelenskyy noted on Tuesday that talks continue with the US on the rare earths mining agreement, but did not announce a signing date. President Trump had suggested that the document might be signed today (the 24th).

President Trump commented on the lates Russian missile and drone strike on Kyiv, which killed at least 12 and wounded more than 80:

”I am not happy with the Russian strikes on Kyiv. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5,000 soldiers a week are dying. Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!”

Later, Trump was asked by the press if he thought President tPutin would listen to him, Trump answered: 

“I do.”

"I will say that I think Russia is ready, and a lot of people said Russia wanted to go for the whole thing. I think we have a deal with Russia, we have to get a deal with Zelenskyy. And I hope that Zelenskyy… I thought it might be easier to deal with Zelenskyy but so far it’s been harder. But that’s okay, it’s alright. But I think we have a deal with both. I hope they do it because we spend a lot of money. But this is about a lot of humanity.”

"We are spending hundreds of billions of dollars through Biden. Biden should have never let that war happen. We’re spending hundreds of billions, maybe US$350 billion we’ve given to Ukraine, and we could use that money right here.”

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Fighting continue in the little town of Gornal, just inside Russia. This is the last remaining significant concentration of forces from the Kursk salient, probably about battalion strength. There are also a few small pockets of troops strung along the border north of Gornal.

Further south, north-west of Belgorod, there are several small pockets of Ukrainian troops along the border and fighting continues around each of those as well.

About 16 miles north-east of Sumy Russian forces were active in the vicinity of Myropillya, a town of nearly 2,900 people tucked up against the Russian border, located about 4 miles south-east of Gornal and about 8 miles north-north-west of Demidovka. At the same time, Ukrainian forces were active around Loknya and Russian forces appear to have withdrawn from that town. 

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Russian forces were active around both Lyptsi and Vovchansk but there were no charges in the front lines.

NORH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting was reported on several segments of the line of contact - but not all, and there were no changes in the front line.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continued east of Siversk and west of Chasiv Yar, but there were no changes in the front line.

In and around Torestk, Russian forces continue  to assault to the north, west and south-west and made gains to the south-west.

DONETSK CITY

Russian forces had confirmed gains east of Pokrovsk in Taresivka, near the H032 roadway, and just east of there Russian forces continue to make incremental gains as part of the effort fill in pockets and straighten the lines.

Overall, Russian forces were engaged in assaults in at least 27 different towns along the perimeter of the salient.

South of the salient Russian forces had confirmed gains north-west of Rozlyv and probable gains south-west of Rozlyv. Fighting continues east of Oleksiivka, and Konstyantynopil remains split between the two forces.

Further south, Russian sources claimed gains north-west of the Vilne Pole - Vesele line but there were not confirmed.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the Pyatykhatky - Lobkove - Stepove - Mali Shcherbaky - Shcherbaky line but there were no changes to the front line.

Air Operations

During the night of April 23rd and moving of the 24th Russian forces launched 11 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 37 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 12 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 4 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, 6 x Iskander cruise missiles and 145 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 7 ballistic missiles, 31 Kh-101s, 6 Kalibr, 4 Kh-59./69s, no islander cruise missiles and 64 Shahed drones; 68 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW).

RuAF tacair struck at least 14 Ukrainian towns.

Final tally for the night of April 22nd:  Russian forces launched 134 x Shahed drones, the UAF claimed it shot down 67 drones and 47 drones were "lost” (defeated by EW).  Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and the city of Slovyansk.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 30 separate Ukrainian towns.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike in Tatarstan, apparently striking a Shahed drone assembly facility. Actual damage is unknown.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr23 Apr24

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 66.13 66.79

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 62.31 63.01

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.01 2.98

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.49 5.44

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 83.26 82.86

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.76 41.72

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 60.22 N/A

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 N/A N/A

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 64.90 62.61

Thoughts 

Concerning the 7 points in the proposal, various reports notes that some senior Russians rejected elements of the proposal. Of course, as Putin still retains 100% of the vote, these comments mean little. At the same time, figures on both sides point out that their respective constitutions won’t allow ceding of any territory. 

My guess is that if they decide they need to make that decision they will suddenly find that the constitutions do allow it…

That said, while Trump appears to be using both carrot and stick with both Russian and Ukraine, trying to push both to a peace agreement, Europe continues to fully support Ukraine, yet, with news that, for example, Germany will have no economic growth in 2025, the likelihood is that Germany, along others will have difficulty actually reaching a 2% of GDP defense commitment and hence their ability to support continued war may be quite limited.

Said differently, economic reality is going to be felt by all concerned as the year progresses: Russia, the EU, Ukraine, the US…

v/r pete