April 14th, 2025    

Diplomacy - No progress over the weekend.

Combat Ops  - Kursk and Belogrod salients being cleared by Russians

- Marginal gains elsewhere

- 35 killed in missile strike in Sumy

Weather

Kharkiv

61 and mostly cloudy. Partly to sunny all week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds southerly, 5kts.

Melitopol

59 and sunny. Partly to mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

64 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 30. Partly to mostly cloudy through Thursday, then sunny weather for 4 days. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s,  daily highs mid 60s to low 70s. Winds southerly, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

There are no real developments in negotiations over the weekend. The public response in the wake of the missile strike on Sumy City has been loud and vociferous, but how that will affect any possible negotiations isn’t clear.

Around noon today (EDT), President Trump commented from the Oval Office:

"Biden could have stopped it, and Zelenskyy could have stopped it, and Putin should have never started it. Millions of people dead because of three people. I would say three people. Let's say Putin number one. But let's say Biden, who had no idea what the hell he was doing, number two. And Zelenskyy. All I can do is try and stop it...This was Biden's war, and I'm trying to stop it… It’s a killing field, it's like the Civil War, I look at the satellite pictures."

"All I can do is try and stop it. That’s all I want to do. I want to stop the killing. And I think we’re doing well in that regard. I think you’ll have some very good proposals very soon.”

Ground Operations 

KURSK OBLAST

Fighting continues west of Gornal but reporting over the last few days has been thin, and the various blogs and maps show Ukrainian forces controlling a thin strip of land along the border west of Gornal, as well as Gornal itself and the land about a half mile east of Gornal, up to and including the monastery of St Nicholas. Per Russian reporting there were some 300 Ukrainian soldiers in the monastery complex. Russian sources insist they tried to negotiate a surrender, but negotiations broke down and now they are assaulting the monastery.

Further south, north-west of Belgorod, Ukrainian forces are reduced to holding small pockets of terrain, thin strips along the border from Papovka to just west of Grafovka, holding the terrain that offers some cover, but with there backs to open farmland on the Ukraine side of the border.

In both cases the Russians have begun, slow, methodical clearings of the terrain, using superior firepower to reduce the small lodgments.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Russian forces appear to have made small gains in the Tyke area, just east of Vovchansk.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting was reported along essentially the enter line of contact. North of Kupyansk there was no report of any changes in the front line.

Further south, east of Borova, a good deal of fighting was reported but no changes in the front line.

South-east of Borova, Russian forces had confirmed gains west of Makiivka, and there is some reporting suggesting that a Russian salient is now some 5 miles west of Makiivka and Russian forces remain on the attack around and south of Katerynivka, with numerous, unsupported claims of Russian advances in that area.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

West of Bakhmut, in and south of Chasiv Yar, Russian forces appear to have made some gains over the last few days, with forces appearing to control all of the town center, while also pushing into Stupochky and also pressing west from the area of just west of Andriivka in the direction of Bila Hora. South-east of Bila Hora is a river and some broken terrain, but east and northeast of Bila Hora is open, manicured farmland. Any advance here is likely to be held only for  short period of time; forces are either on one side of a field or the other, not in the middle. Unless the Russian elements reach Bila Hora, or they move south to the river, they will need to give up this terrain at the first counter-attack.

Further south, fighting continues in and around Toretsk. The Russian reconnaissance element that ran up the T0516 roadway to Nelipivka last Thursday appears to have retraced its step and fallen back into Toretsk. Heavy fighting was reported at multiple sites in the Toretsk area but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

DONETSK CITY

There ere multiple claims by Russian sources of Russian gains along the perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient but there were no confirmed gains. That said, there were probable Russian gains both south-west of Pokrovsk and east of Pokrovsk and the Russians appear to have taken the town of Yelyzavetivka, which would expand their holdings on the T0504 roadway east of Pokrovsk.

Elsewhere, reporting noted Russian attacks at more than 20 towns along the perimeter.

Immediately south of the Pokrovsk salient there was also no confirmed gain or loss, though multiple engagements were noted throughout the weekend, and various Russian bloggers claimed Russian gains at multiple points. 

While the gains cannot be confirmed, the reporting, and the accompanying reporting and propaganda from Kyiv suggests that some ground has been lost.

  And further south, as Russian forces press north-west from the area of Velyka Novosilke, there were again, no confirmed gains yet the overall sense of the reporting is that Russian forces gained ground at multiple points between Vesele and Novopil.

There were no reported changes across Southern Ukraine.

Air Operations

During the night of April 13th Russian forces launched an as yet not released number of Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. At least one drone struck a hospital in Odessa shortly after midnight this morning, damaging the hospital, but apparently causing no injuries.

Russian forces struck Sumy with 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles with cluster round warheads Sunday morning, striking a military awards ceremony being held in a square in Sumy. There are at least 118 casualties, to include at least 34 killed. A large number of the casualties are civilian, to include women and children. Follow-on reporting suggests that members of the 117th territorial defense brigade had been assembled in a square in Sumy - in a publicly announced award ceremony, with civilians, to include children in attendance; the Russian response is that the Russians struck a troop assembly with two missiles. In any western or US operations enemy soldiers are a legitimate target but there is always a consideration of number of possible civilian casualties. Presumably, the Russian threshold for number of civilian casualties is a great deal higher than in the US or NATO…

During the night of April 12th Russian forces launched at least 55 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 43 dozens and that 12 drones were lost (defeated by EW). There was no report on damage. 

During the night of April 11th Russian forces launched at least 88 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 56 dozens and that 24 drones were lost (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kirovihrad, Kyiv, Odesa oblasts.

During the night of April 10th Russian forces launched at least 39 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 24 dozens and that 13 drones were lost (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zhytomyr oblasts.

Of note, Russian sources report that a Starlink jammer is now being deployed in southern Ukraine by Russian forces.

Ukraine confirmed that an UAF F-16 was lost on the 12th, along with the pilot. No specifics were provided on the mission or location or how the aircraft was brought down. This is the 2nd F-16 they have lost, the first in August of last year, probably to friendly fire.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr11 Apr14

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 63.99 65.57

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 60.72 62.31

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.50 3.56

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.55 5.48

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 83.22 82.39

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.36 41.30

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 47.54 50.35

ESPO 78.19 UNK 71.50 70 53.19 56.47

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 60.91 61.41

 

Thoughts 

The Ukrainian salients into Russia are, for all intents, gone. At multiple spots along the front Russian forces are making small, almost regular gains. Ukrainian counter-attacks regain some territory, but then are slowly pushed back. 

Meanwhile, the level of reporting out of Kiev keeps stressing how many Russians are being killed, even as Ukrainian forces move very slowly to the rear. There is a certain sense that the number of Russian casualties reported goes up as the situation gets worse. And there are now multiple spots along the front line where it seems that the line could collapse on any given day. 

Perhaps the line won’t collapse, but it does all seem to be hanging on the assessment that the Russian army cannot sustain the war through 2025 and into 2026, and so the strategy has become: hang on, hold the line. Unfortunately, for the small units, that can quickly distill down to a D.I.P. order.

Easter is the season for miracles and it feels as if the Ukrainian army needs one.

v/r pete