April 16th, 2025  

Politics - Ceasefire for Boeing aircraft?

- Rare earth agreement moving forward?

- Martial Law, Mobilization extended 

Combat Ops - Russian gains east of Pokrovsk 

- Russian gains in southern Ukraine 

Weather

Kharkiv

68 and mostly cloudy. Mostly cloudy tomorrow then mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs around 70. Winds southerly, 5kts.

Melitopol

68 and partly cloudy. Partly to mostly sunny through next Monday. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

57 and cloudy, gusting over 35. Mostly cloudy through Thursday morning, then partly cloudy for the following week. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s,  daily highs mid 60s to low 70s. Winds southerly, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Bloomberg reports that Russia has asked the US to allow it to purchase Boeing aircraft using currently frozen state assets, the agreement being in some way tied to a ceasefire. Frozen Russian assets in the US are currently valued at $5 billion.

Per an informed anonymous source (are there any other kind?):

"While the request isn't a condition of agreeing to a truce, Russia understands that frozen funds can't be used to buy the jets without a ceasefire being in place, the person said, asking not to be identified discussing internal matters. A deal allowing the purchase of jets could form part of an easing of sanctions in the event there’s a halt to the fighting."

Ukrainian Deputy PM Svyrydenko has commented on a possible “breakthrough” in discussion with the US on the development of rare earths deposits:

"Our technical teams have worked very thoroughly together on the agreement - there is significant progress; lawyers have made the right accents in the drafting of the agreement, and I thank the negotiators from both teams… In the near future, we are preparing to complete the formalisation of the agreement… The agreement will be subject to ratification by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (Ukrainian parliament), will provide opportunities for investment and development in Ukraine, and will provide conditions for tangible economic growth for both Ukraine and the United States."

At the same time, two members of Putin’s inner circle opined on the rigid need for any agreement to meet to meet certain requirement:

- Demilitarization of Ukraine 

- DeNazification of Ukraine 

- Installation of a legitimate government

- No NATO membership

- Conceding of territory

- Addressing “root” causes

The Verkhovna Rada has extended Martial law (357 - 1) and Mobilization (356 - 1) for another 90 days each - through August 7th.

President Zelenskyy began proceedings to remove the military governor of Sum (Volodymyr Artyukh) in the wake of the ballistic missile attack last week that killed 35 people.

Ground Operations 

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces continue to press on Ukrainian troops along the border west of Gornal, but Ukrainian troops appear to retain a hold on the St Nicholas monastery just east of Gornal. 

As you will recall, there were some 300 troops left in the monastery area when the Russians began the assault in earnest on Monday.

Further south, west of Demidovka, the same story is told, with Russian forces probing Ukrainian positions and striking with artillery, Ukrainian forces dug in and holding but being slowly chewed up.

That said, while there are multiple reports of Russian activity, there were no confirmed changes in the line of contact in these two areas, nor were there any confirmed changes in the line north-east of Sumy, inside Ukraine.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Heavy fighting was reported in the Vovchansk area but there were again, no confirmed changes in the line of contact.

NORTH OF THE DONETS

A good deal of activity reported both north and east of Kupyansk and there are Russian bloggers claiming Russian gains in the area east of Kupyansk, but these cannot be confirmed. A close look at the various maps (and various claims) suggest that here again this is reporting on probes rather than holding of ground.

Further south, in the general area north-east, east and south-east of Borova, there were multiple reports of Russian attacks, and there is a good deal of reporting suggesting that Russian force gained more ground west of Makiivka (about 14 miles south-east of Borova), but this has yet to be confirmed in commercial imagery.

Just south of this area, in the terrain north and west of Katerynivka, Russian attacks have reportedly become more aggressive in the last several days but there were no confirmed gains.

BAKHMUT

North and north-east of Bakhmut the fighting continues, particularly just west of Bilohorivka, but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain.

In the Chasiv Yar area, fighting continues on the east side of the pond - reservoir immediately west of the center of the town, as well as on the eastern edges of the two towns abutting Chasiv Yar on the south side: Stupochky and Predtechyne.

In and around Toretsk, Ukrainian forces made marginal gains on the west edge of the center of town, as Russian forces made gains in the towns immediately north and north-east of Toretsk. It should be noted that the Ukrainian gains are either a hard press - with adequate forces - trying to cut Russian forces off from their main body, or is an over-extension and they may end top getting cut off… My guess is the latter.

DONETSK CITY

Russian forces made gains east of Pokrovsk, around Zelene Pole (3 miles due east of the large turn north on T0504 roadway) and Valentynivka (about 7.5 miles further east). These two towns are simply part of “filling in” the Russian line prior to the full-borne assault on Kostyantynivka. It is important to note that Russian forces in this area are already north of the various trench lines and line of fortifications in this area and so are attacking across farmland that is only broken up by the tree lines that separate fields and are often a half mile or more apart.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces pushed into the terrain between these two towns and retook some terrain near Kalynove.

Elsewhere along the edge of the Pokrovsk salient, Russian forces were active in at least 12 different towns and villages, but there were no confirmed gaining of terrain by either side.

South of the Pokrovsk salient the Ukrainians continue to hold a thin salient with its eastern tip in Konstiantinopil; the salient is now about 4 miles long, east to west, perhaps a mile wide at best (north to south), and the Vovcha river runs right down the middle, with open farmland on either side. You have to admire the Ukrainians holding their positions, though there is also a distinct possibility that they will find it impossible to withdraw.

Further south, north-west of Velyka Novosilke, Russian forces continue to push north-west from the line from roughly Vilne Pole to Vesele. Recent images show that Russian forces have pushed into Shevchenko, picking up a bit less than a kilometer of ground.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

At the western end of the line, just east of the eastern-most bend in the Dnepr, Russian forces continue to attack along the Kamyanske - Orikhiv line, and reporting suggest they gained some ground along the T0812 roadway just west of Orikhiv.

Air Operations

During the night of April 15th Russian forces launched 97 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 57 drones and that 34 drones were lost (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava and Sumy oblasts.

During the night of April 14th Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 52 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 26 drones and that 19 drones were lost (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Donetsk and Sumy oblasts; the Iskander missile struck Sumy.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr15 Apr16

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 64.80 65.95

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 61.45 62.70

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.34 3.25

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.47 5.59

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 81.85 83.01

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.18 41.31

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 No Ch N/C

ESPO 78.19 UNK 71.50 70 No Ch N/C

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 61.41 60.61

 

Thoughts 

As mentioned before (by me and a whole host of other folks), any agreement will need to be accompanied by a list of both carrots and sticks, arguably for all sides. The possible use of Boeing aircraft sales would seem to be a nice carrot for the Russians.

Aeroflot alone has 59 Boeing aircraft - a mix of 737s and 777s, Rossiya has 27 Boeings (737s, 747s, and 777s), Utair has 44 Boeings (737s and 767s), and 47 other Boing commercial aircraft are currently operated by smaller airlines around Russia. An opportunity to buy more Boeing aircraft would presumably also mean a chance to gain access to spare parts to improve maintenance and readiness for their various fleets.

At the same time it helps Boeing, so, if true, this would be a win-win for both Putin and President Trump.

As for the commentary from the Kremlin’s peanut gallery, it needs to be remembered that collectively they retain zero percent of the vote. Putin will, in the end, do what he wants. As has been observed by me (and that same host of folks), Putin could just as easily be using these folks to state glaringly excessive conditions from which he can negotiate “down,” playing the part of the “wise statesman” while extracting a few more “carrots.” I guess we shall see.

Of note, neither a Russian spring offensive nor a Ukrainian one has materialized - yet. The activity south-west of Toretsk (east of Pokrovsk) may, however, be developing, as also the activity west of Orikhiv, along the Dnepr.

v/r pete