April 22nd, 2025  

Politics - US, UKR, EU negotiating teams meet in London tomorrow

- EU Red Lines passed to US

Combat Ops - Starting back up after Easter ceasefire

Economics - Ukraine to keep buying Russian natural gas

Weather

Kharkiv

77 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend, except rain on Saturday. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

72 and sunny. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend, thunderstorms on Saturday. Daily lows around 50, daily highs mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

77 and sunny. Mostly sunny this week until Thursday afternoon, cloudy Friday, Rainy Friday night and Saturday. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

US, Ukrainian and European teams will meet in London tomorrow (the 23rd).

On the 20th President Zelenskyy suggested a moratorium on missile strikes against civilian infrastructure, but President Putin rejected the idea; Zelenskyy also noted Ukraine’s willingness to enter an unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days but Putin rejected this as well.

Representative from France, Germany and the UK met in Paris last Thursday and then passed to the US their “red lines” when addressing a possible peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. The specifics of the red lines have not been released, but French ForMin Barrot noted that the French concert were only in regard to “French Interests and European security.”

Ground Operations 

There were multiple accusations (from both sides) of violations of the Easter truce, and there were noted instances of artillery fire, but overall activity since Saturday night afternoon has been light.

KURSK SALIENT

Fighting continues in Gornal and in several small pockets along the border. Gornal is the last town in the Kursk oblast that is partially controlled by Ukrainian forces. Further south, north-west of Belgorod, fighting continues outside of Demidovka and Popovka, but Russian forces have cleared the small towns near the border and are pressing on Ukrainian positions on the border.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

There was some artillery and mortar fire in the Vovchansk area but overall activity was limited.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Combat operations resumed along virtually the entire line of contact; there were several claims of small changes along the line but there were no confirmed gains of terrain by either side. 

One item of note, Ukrainian reporting noted that Russian small boats were operating along the Oskil River, presumably near Senkove (roughly 10 miles south of Kupyansk), attempting to land personnel on the west bank of the river. Presumably these would be reconnaissance elements or raiding elements. There was no accompanying statement as to what happened to the small boats.

BAKHMUT

Fighting was reported near Bilohorivka (about 15 miles north-east of Bakhmut), but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Fighting continues on the west edge of Chasiv Yar, as Russian forces continue to try to push Ukrainian forces back, and Ukrainian forces continue to hold on the west edge of the center of that town. Imagery from last summer showed the town was already reduced to rubble; fighting now consists of the use of shattered buildings as cover to hold back the Russian pressure.

In Toretsk, imagery confirmed that some time probably by the 19th Russian forces had moved into the village of Dachne (immediately north-east of Toretsk) as well as into south-western Toretsk.

DONETSK CITY

Fighting resumed along virtually the entire perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient, with combat operations reported in 20 different towns.

Russian forces appear to have gained ground in the Kotlyne area, west of Pokrovsk, in addition to claiming gains in several other areas.

South of the Pokrovsk Salient Russian forces continue on the attack in Kostyantynopil and Ukrainian forces continue to hold onto the western side of that town.

Further south, there was no reported changes in the lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues both west of Orikhiv, near Lobkove, Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky, as well as south-east of Orikhiv, near Mala Tokmachka.

Air Operations

During the night of April 21st Russian forces launched 54 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 38 drones and 16 were lost (defeated by EW). However, damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts, with 12 drone strikes in Kharkiv alone, 6 in Kyiv, and multiple drone strikes reported in Kherson and Odessa.

In addition, 21 Ukrainian towns were struck by Russian tacair.

Ukrainian forces struck a large Russian ammunition storage facility in Vladimir (about 100 miles east-north-east of Moscow) and several very large explosions were reported at the facility. 

The facility is one of Russia’s largest ammo storage facilities and can reportedly hold more than a quarter million tons of weapons and ammunition.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr21 Apr22

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 66.14 66.98

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 63.00 63.92

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.07 3.06

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.56 5.47

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 81.25 81.44

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.41 41.61

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 53.50 N/A

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 N/A N/A

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 63.52 63.22

 

Oleksii Kucherenko, First Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy, commented on Ukrainian natural gas needs for the coming year:

"I have to disappoint you, but we are definitely buying Russian gas, which comes in through the Turkish Stream, goes to Serbia and Hungary.”

Estimates are that Ukraine will need to import 6.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia, via Europe. At current prices that works out to about $1.2 billion in natural gas.

Thoughts 

Ukrainian sources are reporting that Russian engineers are expanding fortifications and defenses outside of Mariupol.

This s consistent with what has been reported elsewhere, that the Russian bring in engineers to improve and expand defensive positions as their line slowly moves forward. Leaving fairly extensive defensive positions across occupied Ukraine.

In the wake of the EU announcement last week that in May of 2025 they expect to finish the plan of how they will ween themselves of Russian natural gas by 2027 - “only” 3 years and 3 months after the war kicked off and they already have a plan, comes this report that Ukraine still buys, and will need to keep buying, Russian natural gas.

I submit there are some truly remarkable mental and moral gymnastics taking place in that endeavor.

v/r pete