April 17th, 2025  

Politics - White House: No economic agreement until ceasefire

- Russia receiving substantial ammo from North Korea 

Combat Ops - Ukrainian forces pushed out of monastery

- Russian gains east of Pokrovsk and elsewhere

Weather

Kharkiv

69 and mostly cloudy. Sunny through the weekend and into Monday Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

70 and sunny, sunny for the next 4 ays Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the low 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

68 and partly cloudy, gusting over 30. Partly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the low 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

In the wake of reports of a possible sale of Boeing aircraft to Russia as part of some sort of ceasefire agreement, the White House clarified that there will be no economic agreements with Russia until Russia agrees to a ceasefire; the agreement for a ceasefire must come first.

The “Open Source Center” reports that to date Russia has received 16,000 containers of ammunition from North Korea in the last 19 months (since September 2023), and there is reporting that suggest that half of Russian 152MM howitzer ammo and all 122MM rockets now come from North Korea. North Korea has reportedly also provide Russia with 148 x Kn-23 ballistic missiles.

Based on the various load possibilities, the mix of ammo 122MM howitzer, 152MM howitzer, and the 122MM rockets), this works out to between 4.2 million and 5.8 million rounds of ammunition, which would allow ammunition consumption rates of 7300 to 10,000 rounds per day. Note, this does not include 120MM mortar rounds - which Russia is apparently still producing in bulk.

As of 0800 (EDT) SecState Rubio and Special Envoy Witkoff were meeting now with French President Macron and ForMin Barrot in Paris.

Macron is urging greater US - EU “alignment” on the war.

Denmark announced it will transfer 1 billion Euros ($1.1 billion) in aid to Ukraine over the next 2 years, including air defense and artillery’s systems, and respective ammunition.

Norway and the UK announced a $600 million repair and maintenance contract, as well as anti-tank systems and drones.

Norway also pledged 10 billion krona ($950 million) to fully outfit a new brigade. 

Pledges this year total 23 billion Euros ($25 billion).

Ground Operations  

KURSK SALIENT

Fighting continues around Gornal. Ukrainian troops in the St. Nicholas monastery were forced out of the church and associated building and fell back several hundred yards to a small hill about 300 yards south-west of the church, and held that ground briefly, before falling back into Gornal, which is where they were as of this morning. Russian press is reporting that Russian forces cleared the monastery, that the Ukrainian forces have withdrawn into the town of Gornal itself, and that Russian forces are now attacking into the town.

Further south, north-west of Belgorod, Russian reporting claims that Russian forces have now cleared the two towns of Demidovka and Popovka. There is also reporting that Ukrainian forces immediately to the south, inside Ukraine, were attacking across the border just outside the Ukrainian town of Marine. Marine is a small village of perhaps 10-15 houses along a bend in the road (literally) and is surrounded by well tilled farmland on both sides of the border. Presumably this attack is to take pressure of the Ukrainian elements near Demidovka and Popovka.

Fighting continued north-east of Sumy city but there were changes of the front lines.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

There was little reported activity as Russian forces appear to be conducting a troop rotation.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting was reported along most of the line of contact, in some spots it would appear to be an increase in activity, and Russian sources claimed gains in most areas, but there were no confirmed gains.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut, particularly east of Siversk, but there were no confirmed changes in the line of contact.

West of Bakhmut, in the Chasiv Yar area, fighting continues on the east edge of Chasiv Yar center, as well as immediately south of Chasiv Yar, as Russian forces attack into Stupochky and Predtechyne, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Further south, in the Toretsk area, fighting was reported on the western and south-western edges of the town, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines in this area.

DONETSK CITY

Fighting continues along the entire perimeter of the Pokrovsk Salient. North-east of Pokrovsk, the northern edge of the salient, due south of Toretsk, Russian forces continue to make gains as they push into lightly defended areas near Kalynove and Oleksandropil. By pressing north and east from Oleksandropil, the Russians are pushing into farmland that has no prepared defensive positions. The troops pushing north from the Kalynove are pushing against lightly manned defensive potions that are also the last defensive positions until they reach the outer approaches to Kostyantynivka. The only barriers for crossing these fields are the small rivers that criss-cross the entire area. As it is spring, these rivers are likely to be swollen, but the Russians have become more proficient at crossing rivers, and the rivers themselves won’t slow the Russians a great deal. There are also a host of Russian claims as to which other towns they have entered. This will be a matter of regularly correcting the previous day’s reports as various actions are confirmed - or disproven - with videos.

Around Pokrovsk, Russian forces picked up ground in Lysivka, just south-east of Pokrovsk, as well as in Zelene Pole, to the east. Fighting was reported in at least 10 other towns along the perimeter, but there were no confirmed gains or losses. 

Immediately south of the salient Russian forces continue to push forward, and it appears in some reporting that Russian forces have pushed through Kostiantinopil, while others suggest that Ukrainian forces continue to hold the western edge of the town. 

Further south, Russian forces continue to push down the Mokri Yaly River line and appear to have advanced into the east side of Vesele. As a reminder, Vesele is of note as the eastern end of the last east-west defensive line across Southern Ukraine. Getting troops on both the north and south side of it would significantly ease the process of overrunning the defenses as they pushed westward.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the line from Kamyanske to Shcherbaky and just west of Novoandrivka (west of Orikhiv), but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

 

Air Operations

During the night of April 16th Russian forces launched a number of Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 25 drones and that an as yet undetermined number drones were lost (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, multiple explosions reported in Dnipro city, as well as multiple fires; per the latest reports, all the fires were out. Later reporting suggests a drone strike in Sumy city as well.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr16 Apr17

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 65.95 66.44

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 62.70 63.18

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.25 3.25

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.59 5.64

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 83.01 82.29

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.31 41.41

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 NC         55.75

ESPO 78.19 UNK 71.50 70 NC       64.94

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 60.61    60.61

 

After only 38 months of war, the European Commission announced that on May 6th it will release its plan to phase out Russian oil and gas imports by 2027. The EU received 19% of its total gas supply for 2024 from Russia.

Reporting on Urals and ESPO oils is shaky, with different prices quoted from different sources. But it does appear that the oil is being bought and moved, they are getting some revenue. 

Thoughts 

The ability of the EU to respond with alacrity to developing crises… okay, no more cynicism. 

But it should be alarming that more than 3 years after a full-blown war started on their door step the EU still has not even released  their plan on how to cut the umbilical, never mind actually cutting it, which will happen in 2 years (presumably).

Interdependence and seeking to benefit from the comparative advantage of different countries so that products are less expensive is all well and good. But being dependent on a country for energy, while you have a defensive alliance against that same country? And given a 3 year notice you can’t develop a plan to ween yourself of that same energy source in less than another 2 years?

And these nations are going to pull their act together and act as the bulwark against future Russian expansion?

There is something very disturbing about the glacial response times to change course. 3 years ago this war started and there was an immediate hew and cry about ammo stockpiles, readiness, maintenance, levels of training, etc. But have any of these problems shown a meaningful change for the better yet? Incremental changes after 3 years is not what we need, we need real progress.

Almost two years ago the cognoscenti of Europe, as well as some members of various intelligence organizations in Europe, noted that while Putin seemed to have solved his manpower problem, he would still run out of ammo and weapons by the end of 2025 and then he would be forced to sue for peace and Ukraine and Europe would win. 

The game doesn’t seem to be playing out that way.

At the same time, wars always have unintended consequences; one that is evident here is that the war, besides drawing North Korea closer to Russia, has resulted in money (and probably technology) flowing into North Korea and thereby making their economy a bit more healthy. 

Something that was desired by no one, except the North Koreans…

v/r pete