April 23rd, 2025  

Politics - Putin ready for a ceasefire on current lines?

- Trump sounding agitated

- Zelensky adamant

Combat Ops - Last Ukrainian troop pockets in Kursk salient closing up

- Intense fighting reported elsewhere

- Airstrikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

78 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend, rain on Saturday. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

75 and partly cloudy. Sunny tomorrow, then cloudy through Sunday morning, thunderstorms on Saturday. Daily lows in the low 50, daily highs mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

80 and sunny. Mostly sunny tomorrow, then clouding up, rain Friday night and Saturday. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

The Financial Times is reporting that President Putin told Ambassador Witkoff (at their 11 April meeting) that Russia was willing to end the war on the current front lines and that Russia would cede any further claims on the 4 oblasts (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia).

There have been several astute observers over the past month or two who commented that Putin will offer to end the war as soon as he has cleared Kursk. In the past week or so it has become clear that the Russian forces have the situation under control; perhaps they were right.

The issue of Crimea was also reportedly hinted at in the talks, that Russia would be ceded Crimea.

Earlier today President Trump texted out:

Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is boasting on the front page of The Wall Street Journal that, "Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. There's nothing to talk about here." This statement is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia in that Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Barack Hussein Obama, and is not even a point of discussion. Nobody is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian Territory but, if he wants Crimea, why didn't they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired? The area also houses, for many years before "the Obama handover," major Russian submarine bases. It's inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy's that makes it so difficult to settle this War. He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire - He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country. I have nothing to do with Russia, but have much to do with wanting to save, on average, five thousand Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, who are dying for no reason whatsoever. The statement made by Zelenskyy today will do nothing but prolong the "killing field," and nobody wants that! We are very close to a Deal, but the man with "no cards to play" should now, finally, GET IT DONE. I look forward to being able to help Ukraine, and Russia, get out of this Complete and Total MESS, that would have never started if I were President!

Vice President Vance added a comment in an interview:

"We will withdraw from mediating between Russia and Ukraine if we do not receive a positive response. We have presented a clear and fair proposal to both the Russians and Ukrainians.”

Vance also noted that:

"There's going to have to be some territorial swaps…The current lines, somewhere close to them is where you’re ultimately, I think, going to draw the new lines in the conflict…put down their weapons, to freeze this thing and to get on with the business of actually building a better Russia and a better Ukraine.”

Yesterday President Zelenskyy stated that Kyiv does and will not recognize Russia's occupation of Crimea, or any occupied territory.

“There is nothing to discuss. This is outside our constitution.”

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces are confirmed to have taken Oleshnya (just on the Russian said of the border north-east of Sumy), reducing Ukrainian controlled towns inside Russia to just parts of the one town of Gornal. Ukrainian positions in the Kursk Salient area, and a bit further south in the area north-west of Belgorod, have been reduced to small pockets of isolated troops, jammed up against the border. As noted earlier, the problem with being jammed up against the border is that the terrain on the other side of the border is open farm land. Any withdrawal will be a tactically challenge event.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting was reported in the vicinity of both Lyptsi and Vovchansk, but it was also reported that Russian forces used the Easter ceasefire to rote in fresh troops.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting was reported along virtually the entire front line, but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

There were unconfirmed gains by Russian forces well north and east of Kupyansk, however, near the border with Russia.

BAKHMUT

There were claims of Russian gains north of Bakhmut in the area north-east of Siversk but these gains were not confirmed.

Fighting continues on the west edge of Chasiv Yar and to the south-west. While unconfirmed by imagery, it appears that Russian forces have pushed out of the south-west edge of the town and into eastern side of Shevchenko. If this reporting is accurate, it seems to also reflect Russian forces have clearing the last Ukrainian elements out of the western edge of the cent4r of Chasiv Yar.

Further south, Russian forces regained control of the waste hills on the north edge of Toretsk and it now appears that Russian forces recaptured those parts of Torestk that Ukraine forces retook in March. While all of the Russian giant have not been confirmed, it appears that the Russians have pushed south-west from the center of the town and gained ground east of Shcherbynivka, as well as pushing to the north-east into Dachne.

DONETSK CITY

What has been described as intense fighting has been reported at numerous sites along there entire perimeter of the Pokrivsk salient as well as immediately north and south of the salient, but there are no confirmed gains anyplace in this area of operations.

Russian assaults were reported in 27 different towns, with the now routine extensive use of drones and artillery. Of note is that recent videos show a continued improvement in the accuracy of the drones, with drones (Ukrainian and Russian) entering into buildings to hit targets (to include individual soldiers).

Immediately south of the Pokrovsk salient Russian forces continue to attack into the east edge of Oleksiivka and towards Bahatyr, and through Kostyantynopil, but it remains unclear as to exactly where the front line. Some reports continue to reflect Russian control of Kostyantynopil, others show Ukrainian forces maintaining a hold on the west edge of that town.

Further south, Russian forces continue to press north-west along the Vilne Pole - Pryvilne - Vesele line but there were no confirmed gains in terrain.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces remained on the attack on the “Orikhiv Line,” from Pyatykhatky to Lobkove to Stepove to Mali Shcherbaky, and also south-west of Orikhiv to Mala Tokmschka, as well south of Orikhiv near Novodanylivka, but there were no confirmed gains of terrain.

Air Operations

During the night of April 22nd Russian forces fired several missiles (type and number not yet reported) and launched more than 67 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace and the UAF claimed to shoot down 67 drones. Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Poltava and Sumy oblasts and the city of Slovyansk.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 30 separate Ukrainian towns.

During the night of April 21st and the morning of the 22nd Russian forces launched 131 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 76 drones and 47 were lost (defeated by EW). However, damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, with 12 drone strikes in Kharkiv alone, 6 in Kyiv, and multiple drone strikes reported in Kherson and Odessa.   

On the 21st, 21 Ukrainian towns were struck by Russian tacair.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr22 APr23

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 66.98 66.13

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 63.92 62.31

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.06 3.01

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.47 5.49

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 81.44 83.26

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.61 41.76

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 N/A 60.22

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 N/A N/A

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 63.22 64.90

 

Russia’s Economics Ministry is now forecasting an average price of $56 / barrel for Urals oil for the remainder of the year. This will have a marked, negative, impact on the Russian budget deficit.

Note, price for Urals oil may be incorrect - drawn from a poorly worded article…

Thoughts 

President Trump’s numbers may be bit off on total casualties (5,000 per week), but, may actually be low. And despite the insistence from various European casualties, Ukraine is suffering at last half that number and possible more.

Whether or not Putin is in any way sincere as to a ceasefire and peace agreement, remains to be seen. But one of the strange things to me (from 5,500 miles away) is that, per the pundits, Ukraine and Europe won’t benefit from a ceasefire as much as Russia. The argument seems to be that if there’s a prolonged ceasefire Russia will just use that time to assemble weapons and ammo and then attack. But Russia has 150 million citizens and a $2.2 trillion GDP. Collectively, Europe - without the US - has 450 million people and an $18 trillion GDP.

If Europe were serious, it would seem they could readily outbuild Russia and build up much greater defenses in Ukraine than Russia could build up striking power.

Of course, the fact that the EU has yet to ween itself of Russian natural gas - and doesn't even have a finished plan to do so yet, it would seem that the real issue is that everyone in the EU knows that as soon as the war stops everyone will fall back on what they were doing before, that ammo stockpiles will not be filled up and that the EU defense forces will once against be under-manned, under-equipped, under trained, and short of ammo.

It's of note that the daily tally of Russian missiles and drones launched into Ukrainian air space has grown a tad less precise over the last several months and at the same time the “other reporting,” (reports from others outside of the Ukrainian Air Force or the central government in Kyiv), are reporting what would seem to be higher success rates for Russian strikes than is admitted by Kyiv. 

Part of this is Russia’s improving drones - faster and also higher altitude, making them more difficult for the UAF air defense teams using small arms to shoot at drones.

There’s an argument that it would be to Kyiv’s benefit to admit that they can’t defeat these drones, and thereby garner more support from the EU.

On the other hand, they have made a point of publicizing the success rate of the patrols armed with machine guns in defending against the Russian drones, and while admitting that more drones are getting through may be of value in gaining more air defense systems, it would represent a Russian “success" that they don't feel they can admit, and would presumably negatively impact civilian morale.

It should be noted that the tendency to report “shoot-downs,” and to give a very positive report, is nothing new. Air defense forces since World War I have been claiming much greater rates of success than reality. Further, the real issue of air defense is how many got through, not how many were shot down. And Kyiv doesn’t want to tell Moscow how successful any particular air strike may have been.

v/r pete