April 29th, 2025  

Politics - Peskov say “No” on 30 day ceasefire

- 400,000 rounds of155MM ammo

Combat ops - Russian gains at multiple points

- Russian SOF raid across Dnepr

Weather

Kharkiv

65 and sunny, gusting over 25. Clouding up tonight, and then mostly cloudy for the rest of the week; rain on Thursday and again on the weekend. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds westerly, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

61 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny or partly cloudy all week; daily lows in the 40s, highs in the upper 60s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

63 and cloudy, gusting over 35. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, rain Thursday morning and again on the weekend,Thursday, like today, will see gusts over 30.  Daily lows in the 40s, highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 15-20kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Kremlin Spokesman Peskov commented President Zelenskyy’s suggestion to extend the May 8th 72-hour ceasefire to a full 30 days: “It would be difficult to enter into a long-term ceasefire without first clearing up a number of questions.”

Czech DefMin Černochova announced that the Czech ammo initiative will deliver 400,000 rounds of 155MM to Ukraine by the end of this month, and the intention is to provide 125,000 rounds per month for the rest of the year.

One curious note: Natalia Dmitrieva, sister of President Putin’s main envoy Kirill Dmitriev, was in Ukraine from 8 February to 12 February, traveling on a US Passport.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Two small pockets of Ukrainian troops remain inside Kursk Oblast, pressed up against the border, with one group near the town of Oleshnya (about a mile south of the H07 - R-200 roadway), the other on the south side of the town of Gornal (also along the border, about 7 miles south-east of Oleshnya). It is not clear as to how many Ukrainian troops remain at each location, but it is certainly no more than 200 at each.

Further south, north-west of Belgorod, several more small pockets of Ukrainian troops remain just inside Russia. Russian forces continue to use artillery and drones to reduce the Ukraine force, which again, is probably note more than several hundred in each of several pockets.

Russian troops inside Ukraine, north-east of Sumy, made small gains west of Loknya, pushing into unoccupied terrain outside of the small towns and outside of Ukrainian defensive positions.  

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continues in the vicinity of Vovchansk and further east near the town of Tykhe. Ukrainian army reporting suggests an increase in Russian artillery and drone activity in the last few days, and notes that some Russian forces rotated out, but that the overall number of Russian troops in the area appears to have increased.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Imagery confirmed that Russian forces control Kamyanka (on the West Bank of the Oskil, near the Russian border) and are pushing out from the town. Further down the river, still north of Kupyansk, Russian forces are pushing west and north-west along most of the front between Kamyanka and Zapadne, and Russian forces are reporting small gains along most that front, though these have not been confirmed.

South of Kupyansk, in the area east and north-east of Borova, there were multiple reports of fighting but no changes in the front lines.

Further south, west of Terny, Russian forces were attacking along most of the line from just west of the Zherebets River near Kolodiazi to Nove to Novyi Mir. No changes in the front lines were confirmed, but Ukrainian army reporting noted repeated attacks and substantial Russian manpower advantages; 10 to 1 was claimed but that is unlikely. In most cases the Russian forces are attacking in very small teams - 3 to 5 men, a rifle team. There are multiple rifle teams, but the numbers are deliberately kept low, preventing clusters of people that would be a lucrative target for an artillery barrage.

BAKHMUT

North and north-east of Bakhmut Russian forces gain ground, operating just west of Bilohorivka, just south of the Donets River, in the vicinity of the - now abandoned - village of Hyrhorivka. Just south of the village is local high ground, the village proper is on the north slope pf the hill, sloping down to the river. Russian forces also made gains due south of Hryhorivka (east of Siversk), in the terrain outside of Verkhnokamyanske. As a reminder, this general area has traded hands repeatedly since spring of 2022 (when Hryhorivka was abandoned). There is nothing specific to suggest that this gain on the ground is any different from the dozen previous times the town has changed hands.

West of Bakhmut fighting continues on the west edge of Chasiv Yar, just west in Stupochky, just south near Bila Hora, and just north of the town. But here were no confirmed changes in the from line. More fighting was also reported west of the Donets Canal, west of Kurdiumivka.

Further south, Russian forces in and around Toretsk have pushed north of the town and reached a position about a quarter miles west of the town of Dachne, at a small dam on the east end of a reservoir. This reservoir is the first in a string of reservoirs and irrigation channels that run to the north-west about 9 miles and terminates about 3 miles due south of Kostyantynivka.

Further south, Russian forces also gained ground north-west of Sukha Balka, as they continue to work to straighten their lines.

DONETSK CITY

Russian forces were active across most of its Pokrovsk perimeter, with assaults reported in 19 separate towns along the edge of the salient; there were no confirmed gains, but there were Russian claims of gains near Uspenivka 

Immediately south of the salient Russian forces were active pressing westward along a line from the small town of Zaporizhzhia to the eastern edge of Oleksiivka, to Kostiantinopil to Rozlyv to just south of Bahatyr, but there were no confirmed gains by Russian forces.

Further south, along the Novosilke to Vesele line, Russian attacks continued, but there were no changes to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues both west and south-east from Orikhiv, but there were no changes in the front line.

Along the Dnepr River there are reports that Russian forces not only control the islands of the Dnepr, but are now making raids into Kherson during the evening, crossing near and raiding into Tyahinka (about 16 miles up river from Kherson). Tyahynka is a small town of about 300, located where a small river (the Tyahynka River) flows into the Dnepr. The town was used as a site for staging some small boat activity that supported Ukrainian special operations personnel raiding into the east bank last year. 

Air Operations

During the night of April 28th Russian forces launched 100 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 37 drones, and 47 drones  unknown number of drones were “lost” (due to EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Kyiv oblasts.

During the night of April 27th Russian forces launched 166 x 40 Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 40 drones, and 74 drones were “lost” (due to EW). Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.

During the night of April 27th Ukrainian forces struck the Kremniy El electronics plant in Bryansk City (about 60miles north of the Ukraine border. Damage is unknown but a fire was reported at the facility. Russian Air Defense Forces claimed they shot down 102 Drones last night.

Russian tacair conducted strikes on at least 24 Ukrainian towns in the last 24 hours.

The UAF SU-27 Flanker lost early yesterday was providing Class Air Support to Ukrainian ground forces when it was damaged and the pilot forced to eject. There is speculation that the Flanker was struck by a Russian drone.

The pilot was recovered and is stable and recovering.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr28 Apr29

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 66.17 64.79

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 62.42 61.16

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.09 3.32

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.28 5.32

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 83.00 81.77

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.69 41.55

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 N/A N/A

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 N/A N/A

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 62.99 62.99

Of interest, blended crude, a mix of Russian ESPO crude and Iranian crude, is trading between 61.57 and 70.77 per barrel in Shandong, China, price dependent on the specific mix.

Total Ukrainian government debt increased by $2.64 billion in March and now stands at $171 billion. Total debt was $98 billion at the start of the war.

Thoughts 

Moscow - and President Putin - continues to view the war as one that they are winning and so he refuses to yield on negotiations, essentially waiting for more concessions from the US, Ukraine and the EU. Statements by ForMin Lavrov continue to sound the standing Russian talking points of “elimination of root causes” and international recognition of Russian territories (Crimea and the 4 oblasts: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia).

That wild change if Putin were to change his mind; the key remains changing Putin’s mind - and his will.

It would seem apparent that the US is going to have to significantly tighten the sanctions if it is to get Russia, to get Putin, to move. And the obvious means to do that is through 3rd party embargo, while driving down the cost of oil.

v/r  pete