April 18th, 2025   Good Friday

1775 - Paul Revere’s Ride

April 19th, 1775 - Battles of Lexington and Concord - the Shot Heard ‘Round the World

Politics - SecState Rubio - time is limited

- US presents options to allies 

- Ukrainian Minerals delegation to Washington - April 21

Combat Ops - St Nicholas Taken by Russians, salients closing up

- Russian gains in multiple areas

Economics  - Russian budget adjustments due to lower oil prices

Weather

Kharkiv

75 and sunny. Sunny or mostly sunny through the next week. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds south-easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

74 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny through the weekend then partly cloudy. Daily lows around 50, daily highs around 70. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

75 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Partly cloudy for the next few days, but mostly sunny Sunday through Wednesday. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds from the south-east, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Per SecState Rubio, President Trump wants some progress:

“We’re not going to continue with this endeavor for weeks and months on end. So we need to determine very quickly now, and I’m talking about a matter of days, whether or not this is doable in the next few weeks. If it’s not possible, if we’re so far apart that this is not going to happen, then I think the President is probably at a point where he’s going to say, ‘well, we’re done’.”

Trump sounded a bit more upbeat, commenting about Russia:

"We'll see what that will be. We're going to be hearing from them this week. Very shortly, actually, and we'll see… the deaths and the killings [need] to stop.”

And, on Thursday in Paris the US presented some options to allies to spur Russia to accept a peace plan:

- Freezing the war, the current front lines fixed

- Ukraine would not enter NATO

- Russian sanctions would begin to be rolled back

- This would not be a final settlement, and the lines would not be recognized as final 

If Russia does not agree to move forward on talks, Trump hinted at further tightening of sanctions. 

PM Shmyhal noted that the Ukraine government has issued a memorandum in concert with the US that provides for the PM voiding the US between 21 and 27 April to conclude the agreement off development of rare earths in Ukraine.

"Whereas, without prejudice to any remaining political or legal procedures required to complete the arrangement, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal will visit Washington, D.C. the week of 21 April 2025 to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and lend high-level support to the conclusion of technical discussions on the terms of an agreement establishing a reconstruction investment fund.”

The memorandum also outlines the creation of a reconstruction investment fund as part of the economic partnership.

German industrial and weapons firm Rheinmetal announced that it will produce 350,000 x 155MM howitzer shells in 2025, 150,000 increase from the plan of several years ago.

Ground Operations 

KURSK SALIENT

Fighting continues around Gornal but images released in Russian press appear to show the St Nicholas monastery completely in Russian hands. Russian reporting claimed 200 Ukrainian casualties at the monastery, roughly 100 Ukrainian soldiers managed to withdraw into Gornal.

Besides Gornal and the terrain immediately west of the town, there are only several small pockets of Ukrainian troops remaining on the Russian side of the border.

North-west of Belgorod, the Ukrainian lodgments on the Russian side of the border continue to be squeezed and the small towns briefly held by Ukrainian forces have been cleared. Small lodgments remain on the Russian side but here, too are now being squeezed by Russian forces.

The Russian hold on the thin slice of Ukrainian terrain north-east of Sumy remains unchanged and there are reports that some Russian forces have been withdrawn, suggesting that the Russians will not try to further expand their positions. 

This makes sense; when the Russians tried in 2022 to seize the Sumy area they had a difficult time taking this area, and the forested areas in particular were very difficult for the Russian infantry to move through. 

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Russian forces completed some small troop rotations and there were renewed reconnaissance probes in and around Vovchansk, but there were no changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces made multiple probes and assaults north and north-east of Kupyansk, pressing roughly westward from the Oskil River, with confirmed gains north-west of Kamyansk (near the Russian border), and multiple unconfirmed gains between Kamyansk and Kindrashivka.

Fighting was reported south-east of Kupyansk, and north and east of Borova, but there were no confirmed gains by either side, though both sides claimed gains in the area. In particular, Ukrainian sources claimed Ukrainian gains near Zahryzove, north of Borova, along the Oskil river. If the Ukrainian claim turns out to be accurate, this could push the Russian units back from the spot on the Oskil where they could most easily set up a Pontoon bridge.

Further south there were multiple reports of fighting, but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains.

West of Bakhmut fighting continues on the western edge of Chasiv Yar, and in the south-east side of Stupochky, but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Further south in Toretsk, both sides had gains in the last day, with Ukrainian forces pushing into the north-west side of Druzhba (a small town just north-east of Toretsk), and Russian forces gaining ground north-west and west of Toretsk. However, while balanced in gains, the overall level of activity favors Russian forces, and Russian forces retain the initiative.

DONETSK CITY

Russian forces had more confirmed gains east of Pokrovsk, pushing into the town of Myrolyubivka (8 miles west of Pokrovsk) from the south-east, while also reportedly gaining ground around Kalynove (further east) and Kotlyne (just west of Pokrovsk).

Russian forces were also reported on the attack in 23 other towns along the perimeter of the salient.

Immediately south of the salient, fighting continues west of the Andrivka - Kostyanynopil - Rozlyv line. Reporting on the situation in Kotyanynopil is contradictory, with some suggesting that Ukrainian elements retain a death grip on the western edge, others suggesting that Ukrainian positions have been overrun. 

Just to the south-west, Rozlyv appears to have been overrun and Russian forces are, in fact, pressing on the south-eastern edge of Bahatyr, which is 2 miles west of Rozlyv.

And further south, Russian forces continue to push to the north-west from the Pryvilne to Vesele line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirms that Russian forces gained ground south-east of Mala Tokmachka, along the T-0815 roadway, and fighting continuess along that roadway west of Orikhiv all the way to the Dnepr river.

Air Operations

During the night of April 17th and morning of the 18th Russian forces launched at least 3 x ballistic missiles, 5 x cruise missiles and more than 75 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 3 cruise missiles and 2 ballistic missiles, and also shot down 41 drones, while 30 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Sumy oblasts.

During the night of April 16th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 3 x S-300 missiles, and 75 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 25 drones and that 30 drones were lost (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, with multiple explosions reported in Dnipro city. Damage was also reporting in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts; the ballistic missile targets were all in Kharkiv oblast.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr17 Apr18

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 66.44 67.96

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 63.18 64.68

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.25 3.25

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.64 5.61

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.29 82.00

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.41 41.37

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 55.75 51.00

ESPO 78.19 UNK 71.50 70 64.94 60.40

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 60.61 64.48

 

Russian oil prices remain weak, and prices keep moving; the Russian Finance Minister noted yesterday that they are now basing federal revenue for 2025 on an average price of $60 per barrel for Russian oil sales, rather than $70, which was how the budget was drafted last fall. 

Assuming that the total volume of oil sales remains about the same (9.8 million barrels per day), this would mean a reduction in revenue of $98 million per day for the next 9 months, a $25 billion cut in revenues for the rest of the year, and would force the Russians to either cut other spending or pursue inflationary borrowing and money printing options.

Thoughts 

A thought on the nature of the reporting and on propaganda:

Following the fight at the St Nicholas monastery, the remaining Ukrainian forces withdrew to the town of Gornal and the fight continued. Truth is hard to sort out in war, but the original reports framed the fight as 300 Ukrainian troops - an infantry battalion that had taken losses, at the monastery. On the 16th roughly 100 made their way into Gornal, so, 200 lost. 

On the 17th a story appeared that Ukrainian forces pushed back a Russian assault in the Pokrovsk salient that left 240 casualties on the Russian side, and another report about a battalion sized assault, with 53 vehicles, taking place in southern Ukraine in which the assault was spread out along a line of 40 kilometers, and they were essentially wiped out.

The fighting at the monastery did take place. How many Ukrainian troops were there isn't known, but the original story, with roughly 300 in place, appeared credible, as did the idea that the Russians were going to push them out - which they did (though that fact doesn’t tell anything about the size of the forces).  

After that it starts feeling a bit too neat.

The “40 km assault” seems like lunacy. Could this have been a half dozen smaller assaults timed together? Sure. Even then it seems poorly conceived. The Russian tactic of 2-4 man fire teams moving at a time, in order to keep casualties down, has proven to be a slow but capable tactic. The amount of ridicule the North Koreans received from the Russians (and others) for company sized assaults serves to demonstrate that. 

Could the Russian battalion been ordered to do it anyway by some brigade or division commander? Sure. Maybe there was some desire by higher headquarters to wipe out a particular battalion; who knows. But the time coincident appearance of the two stories from Kyiv, and the more or less certain knowledge that whatever the count, the real story will never appear, overcome by events, makes this ideal propaganda.

At the same time, credible reports from other sources note the fairly diligent Russian use of many drones, a great deal of electronic warfare, the movement of forces in armored vehicles behind the lines and once in range shifting to small groups (3-5 men), these odd reports can easily “smell” false.

And, a look at the map shows that, with the exception of one small sliver of land just south of Orikhiv, Russia has retaken all the land across Southern Ukraine that was recovered by Ukrainian in 2023 - that is, the Russian tactics are working.

My only point is that the sensationalist reports of entire battalions getting wiped out - from either Kyiv or Moscow - really need to be taken with a good measure of salt. And virtually all the reports - from all sides, to include Western Europe, need to be read with a jaundiced eye.

v/r pete