April 28th, 2025  

Politics - Putin announces 3 day ceasefire

- US and Ukraine call for 30 day ceasefire

Combat Ops - Drone strikes throughout the weekend

- Russian forces post modest gains 

Weather

Kharkiv

52 and partly cloudy. Mostly cloudy all week; daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

53 and sunny. Sunny or partly cloudy all week; daily lows Tomorrow lows in the 40s, highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

50 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy through Thursday, rain possible early Thursday; daily lows in the 40s, highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 15-20kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Putin announced a ceasefire for all of 8, 9 and 10 May, in celebration of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

Ukraine and the US responded with calls to simply declare a ceasefire.

Ukraine ForMin Sybiha:

“If Russia truly wants peace, it must cease fire immediately,” and commented that Ukraine is ready for a compel ceasefire for 30 days, a “lasting, reliable, and complete ceasefire…Why wait for May 8? If we can cease fire now from any date and for 30 days – so that it is real, and not just for a parade.”

President Trump, who commented that he worries that Putin is “just tapping me along;” told Putin to “Stop shooting and sign an agreement” [for a ceasefire] but also said that we would give the process just “two weeks.”

"I am very disappointed with the Russian strikes on Ukraine. I will answer the question of whether I trust Putin in about two weeks…I want him to stop shooting, sit down at the table and make a deal. We have the outlines of a deal. I want to make it and get it over with. Just get back to life.”

When asked about what other pressure might be focused at Russia, Trump answer that the US “could do a lot… I wouldn't want to do it, but we have a lot of strengths.” 

When asked about Crimea, Trump answered: 

"We'll see what happens in the next few days. Don't talk to me about Crimea, talk to Obama and Biden about Crimea.”

SecState Rubio added that this week is “Critical. We’re close, but not close enough.” 

But, he added that: “We cannot continue to dedicate time and resources to this effort if it’s not going to come to fruition.”

White House spokeswoman Leavitt noted that President Trump "wants a permanent ceasefire…He wants to see a permanent ceasefire. I understand Vladimir Putin this morning offered a temporary ceasefire. The President has made it clear he wants to see a permanent ceasefire first to stop the killing, stop the bloodshed…, The President remains optimistic but he is also being realistic as well and both leaders need to come to the table to negotiate their way out of this.”

Meanwhile, from Germany: DefMin Pistorius warned against accepting the Trump ceasefire proposal, calling it “capitulation.”

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces claimed yesterday that the last Ukrainian troops had been defeated and that all of Kursk Oblast was now in Russian hands. The Ukrainian General Staff denied this and insist that Ukrainian troops are still holding terrain inside Russia, north-east of Sumy.

There may, in fact, be Ukrainian troops remaining inside Russia but they are severely outgunned, are to a certainty reduced to small pockets of small numbers of troops, and will probably not hold out much longer.

There are also Ukrainian troops just inside the Russian border north-west of Belgorod. They are holding some terrain, but are also in a precarious position, with resupply or reinforcement difficult at best, and practically speaking, impossible.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting was reported in the vicinity of Vovchansk, but there was no change in the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

North of Kupyansk, along the Oskli River, Russian forces appear to be in control of all of the town of Kamyanka - on the west side of the Oskil River, about 5 miles west of the Russian border.

The are multiple reports of Russian gains north-west of Kupyansk, but some of the reporting is contradictory.

Further south, in the area of Zahryzove (just opposite Senkove on the Oskil River), Ukrainian forces appear to have gained some ground in fighting over the weekend., while Russian forces may have gained some ground south-east of Borova; while there was a good deal of fighting reported south-east of Borova, in an arc from the Zherebets River to Novyi Mir, there were no confirmed gains by either side.

BAKHMUT

Fighting was reported east of Siversk but there were no changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues on the west edge of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky, but there were no confirmed gains. Further south, Russian forces appear to have taken control of a slice of land not quite a mile wide, west of Kurdiumivka - west of the Donets Canal.

Russian forces remained on the attack in and around Toretsk and had confirmed gains west and south-west of Toretsk, pushing further into Shcherbynivka and Berezivka. Russian assaults were reported in 6 more towns around the Toretsk area.

DONETSK CITY

On the Pokrovsk Salient Russian forces were engaged along virtually the entire perimeter of the salient with assaults reported in more than 20 towns, but there were no confirmed gains. There were. However, multiple claims by Russian sources of gains in towns just east of Pokrovsk as well as towns south-west of Pokrovsk, along the western “face” of the salient. There also appear to be more gains at the eastern end of the salient, in the vicinity of Sukha Balka, 5 - 6 miles south of Toretsk, but these are not confirmed.

Immediately south of the Pokrovsk salient Russian forces continue to attack westward; there were no confirmed (imaged) gains by Russian forces, but other reporting suggests Russian gains east of Oleksivka,, and west of Rozlyv, and that Russian forces are now pressing into the terrain immediately south of Bahatyr. Fighting continues in Konstantynopil and Ukrainian forces continue to maintain their death-grip on the west side of that town.

North-west of Velyka Novosilka Russianf roces conducted assaults along the line from Novosilke to Vesele and just southeast of Fedorivka, and Ukrainain elements counter-attacked and tried to flank the north-east end of the line, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting was reported along the line from Piatykhatky to Shcherbaky during the course of the weekend, as well as south-east of Orikhiv near Mala Tokmachka, but there were no changes int he front lines.

There also was reportedly a skirmish between Russian and Ukrainian elements along the river on Friday near the runs for the Antonivka bridge, but there are no details as to size or precise location.

Air Operations

During the night of April 27th Russian forces launched more than 40 Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 40 drones, and there is no report yet as to other losses or any damage. 

During the night of April 26th Russian forces launched 149 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 57 drones, and 67 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Zhytomyr oblasts.

During the night of April 25th Russian forces launched 1 x Onyx cruise missile, 2 x Kh-31P cruise missiles, and 114 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 66 drones, and 31 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, and Kyiv oblasts. 

During the night of April 24th and morning of the 25th Russian forces launched 103 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 41 drones, and 40 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy oblasts.

Russian tacair struck more than 20 towns over the weekend.

A UAF SU-27 Flanker crashed in central Ukraine today, pilot ejected and was recovered; cause of crash unknown

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr25 Apr28

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 65.69 66.17

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 61.95 62.42

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 2.90 3.09

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.49 5.28

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.46 83.00

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.82 41.69

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 60.48 N/A

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 64.19 N/A

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 62.89 62.99

Of interest, blended crude, a mix of Russian ESPO crude and Iranian crude, is trading between 61.57 and 70.77 per barrel in Shandong, China.

Thoughts 

DefMin Pistorius didn’t say what his plan was for Ukraine, only that he clearly doesn’t like Trump’s plan.

Germany last month passed a major increase in their budget, which will allow Germany’s defense spending to rise to roughly 100 billion Euros ($110 billion), roughly 2.2% of GDP for 2026.

This year’s defense budget is about $88 billion, and about 85% of that funding is in operations expanses and personnel costs. That said, Germany currently has 6 brigades in their army and it isn’t clear that more than 2 could deploy. Much of the rest of their forces - air and naval - have equal readiness issues. 

Pistorius may view Trump’s plan as capitulation but no one, Pistorius included, has a plan that would provide a reasonable expectation that it would force the Russian army out of occupied Ukraine. And the current grind - which is intended by the Russian general staff as much for killing Ukrainian soldiers as it for taking land, is, in fact, accomplishing its aim: it’s killing Ukrainian soldiers. 

Even if he wanted, and even if the Bundestag were to agree, Pistorius does not have, and will not have, the forces to move into Ukraine except in small numbers. So, his call of “capitulation” has nothing behind it, except perhaps flowing more ammunition into Ukraine and letting more Ukrainians end up as casualties.

No one need like it, but no one besides Trump has a plan, except Putin, and no one except the Russians like Putin’s plan.

v/r pete