May 13th, 2025

Politics - Zelenskyy to Istanbul on the 15th

- SecSate Rubio will be in Istanbul

- Trump maybe as well?

- No word on Putin

Combat Ops - Gains south-west of Toretsk

- Gains south-west of Pokrovsk

Weather

Kharkiv

57 and cloudy, some rain showers. Rain tomorrow and again on the weekend; mostly cloudy rest of week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

59 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy this week, rain possible tomorrow. Daily lows in the 40s, highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

62 and mostly cloudy, rain later tonight. Cloudy or mostly cloudy for the next week, rain showers Thursday through Sunday. Daily lows near 40, and daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump on the talks in Istanbul:

“I don’t know where I’m going to be on Thursday – I’ve got so many meetings – but I was thinking about actually flying over there. There’s a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things can happen…Don’t underestimate Thursday in Turkey.”

Secretary of State Rubio will be in Istanbul for the talks.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded:

“All of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Turkey. This is the right idea. We can change a lot.”

The Kremlin has yet to state whether Putin will attend the talks in Istanbul. Kremlin spokesman Peskov noted:

“We are committed to a serious search for ways of a long-term peaceful settlement.”

As for what might be discussed, Ambassador Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy,  commented:

"I think the major issues here are the regions, the nuclear plant, it's how the Ukrainians are able to use the Dnipro River and get out to the ocean. There are things here that I don’t think are going to be difficult to solve if we get the parties to the table, they're talking to each other, we’re narrowing issues between them, and then we're coming up with compromises and creative solutions to address each of their concerns."

"The major sticking points are down to the five regions. Russia has control – overwhelming control – of two of those regions. The Ukrainians have some degree of control over three other regions, so it's about how we’re going to assess – there's a difference between where the battle line are, where the troops are, and the administrative lines.”

Ambassador Kellogg, Special Envoy for Ukraine, commented that part of the resolution to the war might involve deploying European troops to western Ukraine as part of a “comprehensive ceasefire.”

"We are talking about a resilience force… the Brits, the French, as well as the Germans, and now actually the Poles, have a force west of the Dnipro River, which means it’s out of contact range."

‘A peacekeeping force could be deployed east of the Dnipro River with the participation of a third country so you can actually monitor the ceasefire.’

Ground Operations

Russian government reporting notes that the Russian Presidential Regiment is deploying to the Chasiv Yar area. There is probably nothing to read into this except a desire to get the unit combat time, just as other countries have deployed presidential guard and honor guard units to war zones.

SUMY OBLAST

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports that Ukrainian troops are engaged with Russian troops in “Kursk Oblast” but it is not clear where, as there are maps with possible Ukrainian elements on or just across the border north-west of Sumy (near Tetkino) north-east of Sumy (the last elements of the Ukrainian Kursk salient formed last summer) or the small Ukrainian drive across the border into the Kursk oblast, just north of the border between Kursk and Belgorod oblasts; there are maps and blog sites that reflect each, but there is none that reflect all three, and several that suggest only one: the small incursion across the border, north-west of Belgorod.

In each case, it appears that the Russian effort is to use artillery to grind down these elements.

Meanwhile, Russian activity continued yesterday on Ukrainian territory north-east of Sumy, but there were no changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Russian forces were active in the vicinity of Vovchansk but there were no changes noted in the front lines

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along the entire front line north of the Donets, but there were no confirmed gains.

Of note, unconfirmed reports suggest that the Russians have moved onto the line of bluffs and low hills that run roughly north-west to south-east, just to the north of Kolodyazi, just west of Terny and the Zherebets River. This will make more difficult the dislodging the Russians in this area.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues both north-east and east of Siversk, and west and immediately south Chasiv Yar, but there are no confirmed gains in either area.  Fighting was also reported immediately south-west of Chasiv Yar in Predtechyne, and a few miles south near Bila Hora.

Further south, around Toretsk, there were no confirmed changes in the front lines yesterday. However, about 5 miles south-west of Toretsk, just south of the small town of Romanivka, Russian forces had confirmed gains, even as Ukrainian forces had gains near Druzhba, north-east of Toretsk.

As with other Russian gains elsewhere, the important point here is the slow, cumulative nature of the Russian gains, as they very slowly fill would be Ukrainian salients and straighten out their own lines. The large pocket south-east of Kostiantinivka is now about 18 x 8 miles, with Toretsk at the center of the south-east side, but with several significant Russian thrusts eating into the southern half of the pocket.

DONETSK CITY

South-west of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to maintain pressure on a series of small towns that straddle a secondary road that runs south-east out of Pokrovsk: Novopavlivka  - Novoserhiivka - Novooleksandrivka, and to the immediate south-east the towns of Troitske and Horikhove. Russian bloggers reported Russian forces pushed the front line out almost a kilometer in several areas but that has not been confirmed; if so, they are now in several spots less than kilometer from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.

Elsewhere in the general Pokrovsk area Russian forces had confirmed gains east of Pokrovsk and fighting was reported in another 14 towns.

Further south, in the general area west of Kostyantinopil (fighting which follows the general line of the Vovcha river), Russian forces continued to attack west, while also attacking Bahatyr and the terrain just west of Bahatyr from the south, pushing on Ukrainian defensive positions from two directions. Again, there were no confirmed gains, but one detailed pro-Russian report suggests that Russian forces now control more than half of Bahatyr, which if correct, will facilitate attacking Olesandriivka, just north of the Vovcha river.

Further south, fighting continued along the front from Novopil to Vesele, with claimed Russian gains to the north and north-west near Novopil, Vilne Pole and in the Vesele area - but these remain unconfirmed.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues both west and south-east of Orkihiv, but there were no noted changes to the front lines in either area.

Air Operations

During the night of  May 12th - 13th Russian forces launched an as yet unknown number of Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 10 drones, abut gave out no further information. Damage reports have not yet been published.

During the night of  May 11-12th Russian forces launched 108 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 55 drones, and 30 drones were “lost" (due to EW). Damage was reported in Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zhytomyr oblasts. 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 May12 May13

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 65.43 65.57

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 62.56 62.65

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.64 3.67

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17      5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.26 5.08

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 80.88 80.45

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.52 41.55

Urals 56.56    71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 56.29 58.70

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 48.90 N/C N/C

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.06 60.78

Wheat prices are down based on larger than expected harvests and a drop in demand. Wheat spot prices fell to 4.90 per bushel, lowest level since 2020. Russia has been using stockpiles of wheat - sold below market price - to generate more cash, so this will have a negative impact in Moscow.

Thoughts 

Rada deputy Andrei Goncharenko gave an interview to the press in which he claims that Ukraine has been involved in direct negotiations with Russia since the beginning of the war, to include all of 2023 and 2024, despite the Ukrainian law, passed in the autumn of 2022, and signed by President Zelenskyy, that outlaws any direct contact with the government of President Putin. 

The talks were held in “the Middle East,” but the location was not further identified. 

Goncharenko wanted to make the point that if someone now objects to  direct talks as “impossible,” they need to be reminded that direct talks have been going on for 3 years. He also admitted that the talks have yielded nothing (though there is some suggestion that they have been responsible, at least in part, for the prisoner exchanges).

As a recap, the public position is as follows:

Just after the war started, President Zelenskyy called for a direct meeting with President Putin to end the war and settle differences.

Over time his position moved further and further from an agreement. By summer Zelenskyy’s position was the he would refuse to negotiate if Russia began to hold trials on the Azov battalion soldiers, he would only negotiate if Russian troops withdrew, and any referendum by the Russians in occupied territory would end all negotiations.

In October 2022 he signed the law banning negotiations with Russia, rejected the possibility of peace, called for Russia’s military defeat, and called for a return to the 1991 borders.

Following President Trump’s election, in January Zelenskyy stated he was willing to hold a summit with Putin, but only Putin, accepted a truce only to demonstrate that Putin ‘didn’t want peace,’ and then later said he would refuse to meet with Putin. In the past week he has stated he is willing to meet with Putin and would accept a 30 day ceasefire.

All of which suggests that the leadership in both Kyiv and Moscow have unachievable expectations: Ukraine is not going to force Russia back to the 1991 borders, Russia is not going to conquer all of Ukraine; assuming Russia can conquer Donetsk and Luhansk, they are still not going to take all of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

If that is so, it would seem there will be no agreement unless both capitals are pressured to come to an agreement. 

v/r pete