May 12th, 2025

Politics - Talks in Istanbul May 15th - Putin and Zelenskyy

Combat Ops - Fighting has resumed across the entire line of contact

Weather

Kharkiv

47 and cloudy. Rain Tuesday and Wednesday, partly to mostly cloudy rest of week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

53 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy this week, rain on Wednesday. Daily lows in the 40s, highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

49 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy or mostly cloudy for the next week, rain showers today and Tuesday, and Thursday through Sunday. Daily lows near 40, and daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

On Sunday President Putin proposed that he and President Zelenskyy meet in Istanbul on May 15th (Thursday) and Zelenskyy has agreed.

Putin offered on Sunday:

"We propose to start [negotiations] without delay on Thursday, May 15 in Istanbul…We propose to the Kyiv authorities to resume the talks that they broke off in 2022, and, I emphasize, without any preconditions.” 

Zelenskyy responded on X:

"I will be in Türkiye this Thursday, May 15, and I expect Putin to come to Türkiye as well. And I hope that this time, Putin won’t be looking for excuses as to why he 'can’t' make it. We are ready to talk, to end this war. Thursday. Türkiye. President Trump has expressed support. All the leaders support this.”

"We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye…”

Zelenskyy later restated what he had said:

“Starting tomorrow, we await a ceasefire — this proposal is on the table. A full and unconditional ceasefire, one that lasts long enough to provide a necessary foundation for diplomacy, could significantly bring peace closer. Ukraine has long proposed this, our partners are proposing it, and the whole world is calling for it. We await a clear response from Russia.

“Russia will have to end this war anyway. The killings must stop. Ukrainian forces will be ready to respond symmetrically— to ensure fairness. We have repeatedly heard from our partners that they are prepared to strengthen sanctions against Russia if Putin rejects a ceasefire. Time will tell.

“Here in Ukraine, we have absolutely no problem engaging in negotiations, we are ready for any format. I will be in Türkiye this Thursday, May 15, and I expect Putin to come to Türkiye as well. Personally. And I hope that this time, Putin won’t be looking for excuses as to why he “can’t” make it.”

Earlier, President Trump had poked at Putin:

President Putin of Russia doesn't want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly! I'm starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who's too busy celebrating the Victory of World War II, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America. HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!

On Saturday Germany, France, Poland, Ukraine and the US called for an unconditional cease-fire starting on the 12th; Putin rejected it. The EU and US made it known that additional sanctions will be placed against Russia if Russia refuses the ceasefire.

On Sunday Putin accepted talks in Istanbul.

Ground Operations 

SUMY OBLAST

Reports continue to circulate of Ukrainian forces on or across the border in the Tetkino area (25 miles north-west of Sumy City) but the strength of the Ukrainian unit, and how far they have penetrated, remains unclear.

There has been no reporting on any Ukrainian elements remaining on Russian soil in the area of the original Kursk salient. Nor was there any reporting of note of Ukrainian force activity on the border, north-west of Belgorod.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Imagery confirmed Russian forces had small gains inside Vovchansk

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces resumed operations north of the Donets River, along the Oskil and Zherebets Rivers, but there were no confirmed gains or changes to the front lines.

BAKHMUT

Fighting resumed north and north-east of Bakhmut, but there were no changes to the front line.

West of Bakhmut fighting continues on the west edge of Chasiv Yar, and south of Chasiv Yar, in the vicinity of Bila Hora, but there were no changes in the front lines.

Further south, in the Toretsk area, Russian forces had confirmed gains immediately north-east of Toretsk, pushing northward form Druzhba and Dachne, while Ukrainian forces also were active near Druzhba and took back some land just east of the Russian forces.

DONETSK CITY

Russian forces resumed operations along the entire perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient (which no longer appears to be much of a salient s Russian forces are talking terrain to the north and south). West of Pokrovsk Russian forces  are now west of Novooleksandrivka (a small town about 9 miles south-west of Pokrovsk, along the Solone river). This places Russian forces in this area about a mile from the Donetsk - Dnipropetrovsk border.

Elsewhere, Russian attacks were reported in 12 different towns on the edge of the Pokrovsk salient

South of the Pokrovsk salient Russian forces resumed the attack along a line just east of Oleksivka to Kostyantynopil to Bahatyr, and most reporting seems to show that Russian forces have overrun Kostyantynopil, but this has not been confirmed.

Further south, Russian forces resumed operations along the Novopil - Vilne Pole - Vesele line but there was no change in the front line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces resumed probes and small unit attacks along the line of contact west of Orikhiv, from Kamyanske to Shcherbaky, as well as south-east of Orikhiv near Mala Tokmachka. Russian forces, operating in small boats, resumed reconnaissance probes along the lower Dnepr River on the 11th.

Air Operations

During the night of  May 11-12th Russian forces launched an unknown number of  Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 55 drones, but did not comment on the number of drones were “lost" (due to EW). Preliminary damage reports have not been released yet.

After midnight (during the night of 10 - 11 May) Russian forces launched 108 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 60 drones, and 41 drones were “lost" (due to EW). Damage was reported in Sumy oblast. 

Russia drone and tacair activity ceased shortly before midnight on the 7th and did not resume until early on May 11th.

During the night of  May 6th-7th Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 187 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 2 ballistic missiles and 81 drones, and 64 drones were “lost" (due to EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy, Zaporihzhia and Zhytomyr oblasts. 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 May12

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 65.43

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 62.56

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.64

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17      5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.26

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 80.88

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.52

Urals 56.56    71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 56.29

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 48.90 N/C

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.06

Oil prices rose on news of progress in US - China trade talks and the possibility of increased economic activity and hence more demand for oil and gas.

Thoughts 

What exactly moved Putin to the point that he has agreed to talks in Istanbul is not at all clear. We will wait to see what emerges from the talks, though I suspect that he - Putin - is willing to consider a ceasefire.

What is of note, and he deserves a tip of the hat, is that with the exception of President Trump, no one was talking about a ceasefire or an end to the fighting; just Trump. Now we may see the shooting stop in the near term - worth a prayer.

v/r pete