May 6th, 2025   No Summary Tomorrow 

Politics - Trump comments on oil prices, Russian 3-day ceasefire

- EU finally produces a road map off Russian NG

- 205 POWs exchanged for 205 POWs

Combat Ops - Another incursion into Kursk?

- Small Russian gains

Weather

Kharkiv

58 and cloudy, showers later tonight, showers Wednesday. Mostly cloudy for the week, more rain Saturday, Monday and Tuesday. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

68 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy all week, rain possible Wednesday night, heavy rain on Friday. Daily lows in the 50s, highs in the upper 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

55 and cloudy. Rain showers later tonight and early tomorrow morning, then 4 days of clouds, rain again on Saturday. Daily lows in the 40s and daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump noted the lower prices for oil as a key point in pushing everyone closer to an end of the war.

"Now that oil prices have fallen, we have a good moment for agreements. Russia wants to make an agreement, Ukraine wants to make an agreement. If I were not President, no one would be making an agreement.”

The EU has finally released its plan to end all Russian natural gas purchases by the end of 2027. The “REPowerEU” plan will also reduce dependence on Russian enriched uranium for reactors, and will tighten rules around Russia’s “ghost feet” of tankers.

"In 2024, the EU still imported 52 BCM [billion cubic meters] of Russian gas (32 BCM via pipeline and 20 BCM via liquified natural gas (LNG) or around 19% of total EU gas imports), as well as 13 million tonnes (MMT [million metric tons]) of crude oil and more than 2800 tonnes of uranium in enriched or fuel form. Ten member states imported Russian gas in 2024, three member states still imported Russian oil and seven member states imported enriched uranium or uranium services from Russia.”

All Russian gas imports will end by 2027, less than 5 year after the start of the war!

President Trump also commented on the 3 day Russian ceasefire, to begin at 0001 on May 8th:

"As you know, President Putin just announced a three-day ceasefire, which doesn’t sound like much, but it's a lot if you knew where we started from.”

President Zelenskyy and Czech President Pavel announced that Czechia will set up an F-16 training facility in Czechia, in concert with the French, the British and $310.5 million from the US specifically identified for F-16 training.

The Czech ammo initiative expects to delver 1.6 million artillery shells this year, part of the total of 3 million shells expected in 2025.

Russia and Ukraine had a POW exchange yesterday, each side turning over 205 soldiers.

Ground Operations 

KURSK SALIENT

Ukrainian Forces are active in the vicinity of the Russian border near Tetkino (north-west of Sumy). Reports suggest that Ukrainian units have raided across the border into Tetkino but it isn’t clear the size of the unit or how far they have penetrated into Russia. There are reports of fighting at the Tetkino railroad station but also reports that Ukrainian troops withdrew backcross the border later in the day.

Fighting continues north-east of Sumy, inside Ukraine, tbut here was no change to the front line.

Russian forces continue to work to clear Ukrainian forces from inside Russian territory north-east and east of Sumy but it appears that small, isolated Ukrainian elements remain on Russian soil and are proving difficult to dig out.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continues in the Vovchansk area and imagery confirmed that Russian forces made some gains inside Vovchansk itself. 

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along most of the line of contact but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side. However, Russian claims of small gains north of Kupyansk - west of the Oskil, and in the south, north-west of Terny, while not confirmed, are credible, and the Russians appear to have gained ground east, south-east and south of Nove. This is all well tilled farmland, cut by small brooks and seasonal rivers lower terrain, and it appears that Russian forces have taken the eastern half of the town and have moved up to and just across of the course of the small river - tree line that runs north-south through Nove.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues north of Bakhmut, but there were no changes in the front line in this area.

West of Bakhmut, in and around Chasiv Yar, fighting continues just west of the town center, as well as north and south of the town, but there were no changes in the front lines.

Further south, in and around Toretsk, Russia forces gained ground both north and south-west of Toretsk. Also, additional Russian forces - part or all of a mechanized infantry division (a motorized rifle division in Russian terminology) have been moved into the area south of Toretsk and are engaged in the fighting in the Oleksandropil Kalynove area (east of the major turn in the T0504 roadway).

DONETSK CITY

Fighting continues along the entire perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain. There were claims of Russian gains south-west of Pokrovsk and there were reports of combat operations in 20 different towns on the edge of the salient. Nor were there any changes in the front lines immediately south of the salient.

However, Russian forces further south, pushing north from Rozdolne, gained ground along the T0518 roadway and Russian forces now appear to control that roadway all the way to Bahatyr.

Further to the south, in operations north-west of Velyka Novosilke, Russian forces continue to attack on the line from just north of Novopil to Vesele, and Russian forces had confirmed gains near the middle of that line, in the Novosilke area.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE 

Fighting continued west, south and south-east of Orikhiv. There are unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian and Russian elements engaged south of Pavlivka, which presumably means between Mali Shcherbaky and Pavlivka. The two towns are about 3 miles apart, the terrain consisting of farmland broken by 6 tree lines and one seasonal river bed. The rest of the front line is not moving at all, and my guess is that this represents a reconnaissance probe by Russian elements.

Further east, Russian forces were reported just south of Vysoke, 5 miles east of Hulyaipole, about a mile north of Russian positions in the Marfopil area.

Air Operations 

During the night of  May 5th - May 6th Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile and more than 55 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 54 drones, and unknown number of drones were “lost" (due to EW). Damage was reported in Odessa and Sumy oblast. 

Russian forces claimed they shot down 105 x Ukrainian drones last night but provided few other details and did not report how many total drones were active in Russian airspace.

During the night of  May 4th - May 5th  Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 116 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 42 drones, and 21 drones were “lost" (due to EW). Damage was reported in Donetsk and Sumy oblasts.

Russian forces released a video from an FPV (First Person Video) drone showing the FPV drone hitting what appears to be a HIMARS launcher - which would-be the first confirmed HIMARS kill by an FPV drone.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May5 May6

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 60.29 62.43

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 57.19 59.46

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.56 3.60

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.33 5.36

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 80.50 81.04

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.57 41.44

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 55.03 54.83

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 N/A 48.90

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 58.53 58.53

Russian oil prices are weak, lowest in 2 years, and likely getting weaker; OPEC nations agreed on Sunday to increase production in June, which will further soften oil prices.

Thoughts 

The Ukrainian General Staff has now taken the position that the Kursk salient was a success, that the salient forced the Russians to redirect assets and thereby prevented the fall of Pokrovsk. As there was very little indication that the Russians stripped forces from the Pokrovsk salient, that is a hard claim to support. Further, despite the office numbers, the Ukrainians probably lost more personnel than did the Russians. 

And it is worth noting: this is a war of attrition: the first goal is to inflict casualties on the enemy, not take ground.Russia is inflicting casualties on the Ukrainian army.

Nevertheless, it now appears to be an accepted response, and they have created another, smaller, salient north-west of Sumy. Whether this eases the attack in the rest of the Sumy Oblast remains to be seen. The Russian inability - with a significantly larger force, to move into and through Sumy in 2022, in concert with Russian talk of a buffer zone, not a full investment of Sumy Oblast, suggests they - the Russians - will not try to take much more land than they now have in Sumy. So, it would not surprise me that these small incursions are generating substantially more Ukrainian casualties than Russian ones, with little real benefit

Politically, however, the Russians have to respond. So, another salient, no matter how small, into Russian territory will make it difficult for Putin to implement a 100% ceasefire beginning in the 8th (at 0001 on the 8th).

v/r pete