May 19th, 2025

Politics - Trump - Putin phone call

- Australia transferring M1 tanks

Combat Ops - Largest Drone Strike of the War

- Russian gains west of Toretsk

Weather

Kharkiv

62, rain and thunderstorms, gusting to 20. More rain on Tuesday, then partly cloudy rest of the week. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

64 and partly cloudy, rain showers. Rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday, partly cloudy rest of week. Daily lows in the 50s, highs in the low 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

75, partly cloudy, rain showers. Partly to mostly cloudy for the week, rain on the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump and President Putin talked on the phone, a call that began around 1030 (EDT) - Washington time.

Prior to the call, President Trump talked to President Zelenskyy

On Sunday President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer, German Chancellor Merz and Italian Prime Minister Meloni. Spoke with Trump as well.

On Sunday Trump posted:

“THE SUBJECTS OF THE CALL WILL BE, STOPPING THE ‘BLOODBATH’ THAT IS KILLING, ON AVERAGE, MORE THAN 5000 RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS A WEEK, AND TRADE

“A CEASEFIRE WILL TAKE PLACE, AND THIS VERY VIOLENT WAR, A WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED, WILL END. GOD BLESS US ALL!!!”

On May 17th Australia began loading the first of 49 M1 tanks en route Ukraine.

Australia originally purchased 59 x M1A1 tanks and is in the process of replacing them with the M1A2.

Ground Operations

SUMY OBLAST

There are reports of fighting on the Ukrainian side of the border, but no indications of any changes. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) issued a statement that “Ukrainian forces achieved their objectives in the Kursk Oblast,” which, together with the scattered reports of Russian forces moving into various positions along the border (on the Russian side) and the absence of any specific reports of Ukrainian operations, suggests that the last Ukrainian element has been withdrawn or overrun.

There were Russian blogger comments referencing Ukrainian and Russian forces engaged along the border west of Popovka (just inside Russia, north-west of Belgorod), but there is no other reporting on this action. 

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting was reported near Vovchansk but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines in this area.

Ukrainian bloggers report a company-sized Russian element operating just west of the western Russian salient, on the Russian side of the border, just east of Zhuravlevka (14 miles north of Kharkiv) and claim they were repelled before they crossed the border into Ukraine. Exactly what happened isn't clear, were the Russians simply moving forces around or conducting a probe into Ukrainian territory, etc. It seems unlikely the Russian would try to expand their holdings using only a company sized unit (roughly 120 troops).

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued along most of the line of contact with some Russian gains noted.

On Saturday, north-east of Kupyansk, near the Russian border, Russian forces appear to have pushed across the border and into the tiny town (perhaps 10 houses, a populate of 31 in a 2000 census) of Stroivka - less than a mile inside Ukraine, about 2 miles north of the Oskil River.

South-east of Borova, Russian forces gained ground west of Makiivka. Fighting also continued just to the south of these gains, along the line from Kolodiazi to Nove line, with fighting reported in or near ten towns, but there were no changes in the line.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues north and north-west of Bakhmut but there were no changes in the front line.

Fighting continues west of Bakhmut, in the general area of Chasiv Yar, and immediately south of Chasiv Yar, but there were no changes in the front line. Fighting was also reported just east of Bila Hora, suggesting another Russian probe into that area.

Further south, Russian forces around Toretsk continue to slowly gain ground just north of Toretsk, pushing into southern  Dyliivka (about 3 miles north Toretsk). If Russian forces were able to hold this ground, it would eliminate the Ukrainian probes into the Russian line east of Dachne and allow the Russians to carve out a piece of terrain about 2.5 by 4 miles in size just north of Toretsk.

West of Toretsk - north-east of Pokrovsk, imagery confirms that Russian forces have entered the south-west edge of Yablunivka, a town about 7 miles west of Toretsk and about 14 miles north-east of Pokrovsk. More importantly, Yablunivka is a bit more than 8 miles from the center of Kostiantinivka.

DONETSK CITY

Fighting continues both east and west of Pokrovsk and in the immediate area of that town, with fighting reported in 19 different towns in this area, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

The Russian MOD claims that Russian forces have taken control of Bahatyr and imagery suggests they may have as of Saturday, but it has yet to be confirmed. Ukrainian forces report that they are maintaining elements inside the town, but they may well simply be unable to withdraw at this time - more to follow.

Fighting also continues north-east of Velyka Noovosilke, but there were no changes in the front line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues west of Orikhiv along the Stepove - Mali Shcherbaky - Shcherbaky line, but there were no changes noted in the front line.

Air Operations

During the night of  May 18th-19th Russian forces launched 112 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 41 drones, and that 35 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage reported in Doentsk oblast but all reports are not in yet.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 15 towns along the front lines.

During the night of  May 17th-18th Russian forces launched 273 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 88 drones, and that 128 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage has been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Kyiv oblasts.

During the night of  May 16th-17th Russian forces launched 62 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 36 drones, and that 6 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage has been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa and Sumy  oblasts.

During the night of  May 15th - 16th Russian forces launched 112 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 73 drones, and that 36 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage has been reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Sumy and Zhytomyr oblasts.  

A ballistic missile strike was reported in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 11 towns along the front lines.

During the night of  May 14th - 15th Russian forces launched 110 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 62 drones, and that 29 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage has been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Poltava  and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 13 towns along the front lines.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 May16 May19

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 64.78 65.33

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 61.92 62.53

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.44 3.18

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17      5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.29 5.31

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 80.83 80.15

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.49 41.49

Urals 56.56    71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 57.40 58.16

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 48.90 61.32 53.90

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 59.61 60.14

Thoughts 

The drone attack on Saturday night was the largest to date, the previous mark being Feb 21, 2025 when the Russian launched 267 driers into Ukrainian airspace. 

In the attack this weekend, 216 drones were defeated, but 57 appear to have reached their targets, a larger number than usual, with, sadly, 1 civilian killed, which suggests fairly aggressive, and accurate, targeting of infrastructure targets - the Russians are improving - slowly, but they are improving.

The most important developments operationally are the gains on the ground.  Last Friday it was reported the Russians had taken control of at least part of the town of Rusyn Yar, just north-west of Yablunivka, and 10 miles from Kostiantinivka. Over the weekend they appear to have taken at least part of Yablunivka. If these reports are accurate, and if the Russians can hold these positions and stabilize the lines, they will both directly threaten Kostiantinivka - the first in line of the next “fortress cities,” and they’ll create a large pocket to the south-east of the T0504 roadway and force the Ukrainian General Staff into another difficult position of supporting men inside that pocket. The situation is worse than it first looks: the distance from the west to east end of the pocket is about 10 miles, but in fact 5 miles of that 10 is consumed by a reservoir, and there are only 3 roads out of the pocket, one of which may already be under Russian control.

I obviously have no first hand knowledge of the number of troops Ukraine has available, but my sense is that they are having more difficulty replacing losses and in many cases it has been many months since a unit rotated off the front line. At the same time it appears that the Russians are bringing fresh troops to the front.

This is in part supported by the Ukrainian propaganda which has increased the number of reports of poorly trained fresh Russian troops. As a rule, in the Ukrainian propaganda, all Russian troops are poorly trained, that part matters not. What matters is that they are reporting an increase in the number of fresh troops arriving at the front.

v/r pete