May 30th, 2025

Politics - Still no Russian Memorandum - release in Istanbul on the 2nd

- NATO membership not on the table 

- US Ambassador to UN: Russia should accept proposal

Combat Ops - Russia 50,000 troops inn Kursk

- More gains in center

Weather

Kharkiv

77 and mostly cloudy. rain, gusting over 20. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next 4 days. Daily lows around 60, daily highs mid 70s. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

76 and cloudy. Rain on Saturday, then partly cloudy through Tuesday. Daily lows around 60, daily highs around 80. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

69 and mostly cloudy. Mostly sunny for next two days, then clouds and rain for two days. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators continue to negotiate about negotiating, with the Russians seeming to deliberately haggle of details, leading Ukrainian negotiators to offering concessions on timing and locations, etc.

The US received the Ukrainian memorandum on conditions and timing on May 27th, but the Russian memo still has not been presented to Ambassador Kellogg. Per the New York Times, the Ukrainian memo has 22 points, and includes provision for a ceasefire on land, at sea, and in the air. It also has has recommendations for monitoring of the ceasefire.

Speculation has been circulating that Russia will withhold their memo until after the next round of talks on June 2nd; this was confirmed by Kremlin spokesman Peskov, who said that the negotiating team will provide the Russian memo this coming Monday in Istanbul. Peskov commented:

"Of course, nothing will be made public. It cannot be made public. Both draft memorandums, the Russian and Ukrainian ones, we hope, will be discussed at the second round of talks, for which the Russian delegation will be ready on Monday morning in Istanbul."

Ambassador Kellogg, the US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, commented that the US recognizes Russia’s issue of NATO expansion.

"That's one of the issues that Russia will bring up. And they're not just talking Ukraine – they're talking the country of Georgia, they're talking Moldova, they're talking, obviously, Ukraine. And we're saying 'Okay, comprehensively, you know, we can stop the expansion of NATO coming close to your border'. That's security concerns from them.”

"We've said that, to us, Ukraine coming into NATO is not on the table. And we're not the only country that says that. You know, I can probably give you four other countries in NATO, and it takes 32 of the 32 to allow you to come into NATO.”

As of May 22nd, 8 countries had stated that they were opposed to Ukraine’s membership in NATO:

 Belgium, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and the US.

The Acting US Rep to the UN, Ambassador Kelly, told theUN Security Council that Russia should accept the proposed deal now on the table, that it’s the best they will get, and said the US is ready to help rebuild. But, he warned:

"If Russia makes the wrong decision to continue this catastrophic war, the United States will have to consider stepping back from our negotiation efforts to end this conflict. To be clear, in doing so, we would not be 'abandoning' our principles or our friends. Rather, we would be recognizing Russia's refusal to work with us toward a desirable outcome.”

"We will insist that the discussion of peace by both sides must be undertaken in good faith….The deal on offer now is Russia's best possible outcome. President Putin should take the deal.” He then called on "both Russia and Ukraine to make the difficult, historic decision to pursue peace. If one side proves unable or unwilling to do so, it will own the consequences.”

As mentioned last week, and earlier in February, Europe continues to import Russian energy. The final corrected numbers are:

For 2024 Russia earned 242 billion Euros ($275 billion) in global fuel sales, a 3% drop from the previous year, and down a total of only 8% since 2021.

Crude oil 104 Bn Eu ($117 Bn)

Refined products  75 Bn Eu ($85 Bn)

Natural Gas 40 Bn Eu ($45.5 Bn)

Coal 23 Bn Eu ($26 Bn)

Also of note, G7 countries imported 18 Bn EU ($20.5 Bn) in refined products from refineries in India and Turkey, made from Russian crude oil. This represents 4 Bn EU ($4.5 Bn) in tax revenue to the Russian government.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along the border north-west of Sumy city, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues north-east of Sumy city, inside Ukraine and Russian forces, per Ukrainian force observations, have seized the two small towns of Kostyantynivka (a small village of perhaps 60 - 70 houses, due north of Sumy city, along the border) and Volodymyrivka (another small village, perhaps 50 houses, about 4 miles east of Kostyantynivka). Russian forces also appear to have made gains on 4 different towns north-east of Sumy city, as they continue to try to carve out a "buffer zone” along the border. 

These are all small towns (villages is perhaps a better term) and they are surrounded by manicured farmland. As we have seen elsewhere, this is in a way like fighting from one small island to another, with a good deal of difficulty moving over the mostly wide open terrain between villages, using small teams (squad or smaller) to move along tree lines and get within range of each individual village.

A Ukrainian General Staff spokesman commented that the Russians have moved additional forces into the Kursk area, bringing the total to more than 50,000 troops, in order to continue to attack into Sumy boast and secure more of the “buffer zone,” confirming President Zelenskyy’s comment that there are 50,000 Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.

North of Kharkiv Russian forces continued to grind out small gains in the Vovchansk area.

If you are a little confused as to the place names seeming to appear in multiple spots, a quick review of the atlas showed that there are (if my count is right, 61 towns in Ukraine named Volodymyrivka, and there appears to be at least one Kostyantinivka in each oblast in Ukraine. But, then again, the US has 88 towns named Washington, 41 Springfields, and 26 Salems, among others.)

NORTH OF DONETS CITY

Imagery confirmed Russian troops in Stroivka, near the Russian border, north of the Oskil river, and additional reporting suggests Russian forces have moved into Kamyanka, the next Ukrainian town, 4 miles southeast of Stroivka.

Further along the Oskil River, Russian forces continue to shuffle forces west across the river, near Dvorichna, and Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to strike the bridges and pontoon bridges; Ukrainian forces strike the bridges, Russian forces repair the bridges...

Further south, north-west of Terny (south-east of Borova) Russian forces have seized Ridkodub, and the front line to the north-east and south-east from that town is moving westward, with Russian gains around Hrekivka and Lypove. Reports vary as to the exact extent, but Russian forces pushing through Ridkodub and Lypove are roughly a mile from the Oskil River and the town of Karpivka, which has three crossings of the river.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues north, west and south-west of Bakhmut, and in and around Toretsk, and heavy fighting was reported just south of Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side in this area.

DONETSK AND THE RUSSIAN CENTER

In the Terrain between Toretsk and Pokrovsk Russian forces were active in 8 different towns and appear to have made gains - not yet confirmed - in several areas, to include possible gains in an arc from Stara Mykolaivka north to Zorya to parts of Yablunivka and west to the Rusyn Yar and Popiv Yar area.

Further west, fighting continues around Pokrovsk and to the immediate east and west of that town, and to the south-west of that town, with Russian forces active in and around 11 other towns. Russian forces had confirmed gains in Lysivka, immediately south-east of Pokrovsk, and there were probable gains to the south, in the vicinity of Troitske.

Further south, Russian forces continue to press on Bahatyr, but Ukrainian forces continue to hold a slice of that town, on the north side, against the Vovcha River. But to the west of the town Russian forces appear to be grinding forward and appear to have taken most of Odradne.

Further to the south-west there were no changes reported in the line from Novopil to Vesele.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the Kamyansk - Orikhiv - Mala Tokmachka line and Russian sources claimed more gains in Mala Tokmachka, but these have not been confirmed.

Air Operations

During the night of  May 29th-30th Russian forces launched 2 Iskander ballistic missiles and 92 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down  26 drones, and 30 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF assets conducted air strikes on 16 towns across the front.

Russian forces reported shooting down 48 x Ukrainian drones last night, and noted that 3 were shot down near Moscow. But the Russian spokesman did not give a total number launched, nor were there any damage reports.

During the night of  May 28th Russian forces launched a number (not further stated) of ballistic missiles and 90 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down  46 drones, and 10 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). The ballistic missile struck Horokhiv, Violin oblast, just 40 miles north of Lviv. Other damage was reported in Donetsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF assets conducted air strikes on 15 towns across the front.

Ukrainian reports suggest Russian use of fiber optic controlled and linked drones continues to increase; these drones now have effective strikes ranges in some cases out to 30 km (18 miles) and this usage is making movement increasingly difficult for the Ukrainian army.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 May29 May30

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 65.20 63.89

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 62.12 60.67

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.56 3.53

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17      5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.28 5.33

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 78.51 79.13

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.52 41.57

Urals 56.56    71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 58.60 57.95

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 48.90 64.31 63.15

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 60.91 58.66

Thoughts 

There has been talk of President Trump using the “rarely if ever used” 3rd party embargo, that is, the US would not trade with anyone who trades with Russia. There are two obvious issues with such an action: the first is that there’s nowhere else to go after that except to put up a blockade - a true act of war. Negotiations essentially end. Once such a condition exists, even though theoretically it could be walked back, the reality is that one side or the other needs to give in, or they go to war.

But, more to the point, such an action can be interpreted as an act of war all by itself. Such an action, by essentially ending negotiations, pushes everything into a political as much as economic confrontation. If done to a great power, as in this case, this very quickly starts looking like the US and Japan in the summer of 1941.

But Trump wants this negotiation to lead to - eventually - a win-win situation. So, at this point it would seem there needs to be some secret talks, in which Putin is offered both a bigger carrot while shown the bigger stick. What that might be is probably shown by the EU energy purchases: end the talk about energy embargoes, and let Russian oil and gas and coal - and fertilizers - back on the market. Certainly the EU would want that.

But it is amazing how little the EU has really helped the situation; as the Rand study pointed out 6 years ago, the best leverage to use against Russia - of 5 identified courses of action - was keeping down energy prices. War was clearly identified as the 5th and worst approach. Yet, three years into the war and the EU has proven to be incapable of breaking free of Russian energy.

v/r pete