May 5th, 2025  

Politics - Trump talks to Erdogan of Turkey 

- Kremlin calls for a Trump - Putin meeting

- China’s Xi to Moscow for May 8th

Combat Ops - Russian forces still active north of Sumy

- Marginal gains along the front lines

- Drone strikes all weekend

Weather

Kharkiv

63 and mostly cloudy, showers later tonight. Mostly cloudy for the week, rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

67 and clear. Sunny tomorrow, followed by four days of cloudy weather, daily rain showers through Friday. Daily lows in the 50s, highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds southerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

54 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, with daily lows in the 40s and daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump talked to President Erdogan (of Turkey) and they discussed the war in Ukraine. Trump then posted this message (late morning, Washington time):

I just had a very good and productive telephone conversation with the President of Turkey, Recep Erdogan, concerning many subjects, including the War with Russia/Ukraine, all things Syria, Gaza, and more. The President invited me to go to Turkey at a future date and, likewise, he will be coming to Washington, D.C. During my four years as President, my relationship with President Erdogan was excellent. We worked together closely on numerous things, including the fact that he helped return Pastor Andrew Brunson, who was imprisoned, back to the United States — Immediately upon my request. In any event, I look forward to working with President Erdogan on getting the ridiculous, but deadly, War between Russia and Ukraine ended — NOW!

Meanwhile… Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called for a meeting between President Putin and President Trump. 

"We have repeatedly said that such a meeting is clearly on the radar, and in many ways we believe that it is certainly necessary."

He added that there are no specifics yet but:

"This requires continued contacts between Moscow and Washington, which have already begun and are ongoing.”

The Kremlin has announced that China’s President Xi will arrive in Moscow on the 7th and will attend the May 8th commemoration of the victory in World War II.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

There is no specific definitive reporting on Ukrainian forces on Russian territory either in the Kursk Oblast or the Belgorod Oblast, but in both cases reporting continues to reflect small slivers of land just inside Russia still held by small elements of Ukrainian troops. Russian forces appear to be carefully probing and shelling these pockets, slowly picking them apart. But, it would seem that the Ukrainians will not withdraw or surrender and the Russians will not stop.

Russian forces continue to operate inside Ukraine, north-east, north, and north-west of Sumy, but there were no confirmed gains on the ground in this area.

Russian gains in this area are limited by the terrain - dense woodlands about 10 miles inside Ukraine. Russian forces tried - in much greater numbers - to penetrate these woods in 2022 and failed. Presumably they will not try to repeat that lesson, but with even fewer troops.

Residents of the towns of Bilopillia and Vorozhba, north-west of Sumy, are being encouraged to evacuate as Russian forces operations inside Ukraine, north-west and north-east of Sumy city.

Bilopillia lies 4 miles south of the Tetkino on the Russian border, 20 miles north-west of Sumy on the P44 roadway,  and Vorozhba  is located just one mile further to the north-west from Bilopillia. Bilopillia is a town of some 15,000 while Vorozhba has about 6,500 people.

 NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continues in the vicinity of Vovchansy and just to the east of Vovchansk, in Tyke, but there were no changes in the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along virtually the entire line of contact in this area. 

In the southern and central sectors of this region there were no confirmed gains, though the reporting suggests there may have been some Russian gains west of Makiivka.

North of Kupansk, however, Russian forces picked up terrain west and north-west of Zapadne, pushing roughly westward past the P-79 roadway in that area, moving in the direction of Doroshivka and Kutkivka.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continued both north and west of Bakhmut, but there were no confirmed gains east of Siversk, nor were there any confirmed gains in the area west of Chasiv Yar, though one blog is showing that the de facto Russian line through Chasiv Yar has rolled over the last pockets of resistance on the west edge of that town; but this has not been confirmed.

In the Toretsk area Russian and Ukrainian forces had confirmed gains. Ukrainian forces continue to attack south-west of Toretsk and had confirmed gains over the weekend in southern Novospaske. Novospaske is about a mile west of Shcherbynivka, which is about 2 miles west of Torestk. Russian forces had not been shown to have made it through Shcherbynivka, but clearly they had and Ukrainian forces are now fighting them for control of Novospaske. 

At the same time Russian forces made gains to the south-west of Toretsk, in the terrain west of Sulha Balka, as Russian forces continue to try to straighten lines.

DONETSK CITY

Operations continue along virtually the entire perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient; there were multiple claims of gains by Russian forces but little has been confirmed. 

There is a report from the Ukrainian army in the Donetsk area that Russian forces have increased the rate at which forces are rotating on and off the front, and at the same time have moved more reserves forward, which would suggest they are trying to make more gains, which would make sense if they anticipate a ceasefire in the near term.

On the south side pf the Pokrovsk salient, and to the immediate south of the salient, Russian forces continue to probe to the west and Ukraine forces continue to hold. The fight for the ruins of Kostiantinopil continues and there does not appear to be any change to the front line as it runs through that town, even as it continues to slowly creep westward, to the immediate north and south of Kostiantinopil, leaving that town deeper into a small salient.

To the south-west Russian forces are probing into the south side of Bahatyr, and just to the north-west Russian forces continue to push on the east edge of Oleksiivka.

North-west and west of Velyka Novosilke Russian forces continue to attack, mostly to the northwest and a bit to the west. Most reporting is unconfirmed and there are some small claims of success from both sides, but there appears to have been little change in the front lines from Novosilke to Vesele. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces west of Orikhiv continue to probe and assault along the line from Kamyanske (on the Dnepr River) to Mali Shcherbaky and they may have made small gains to the north along most of the line during the last few days, but this has not been confirmed. Russian forces were also active south-east of Orikhiv in the terrain between Novopokrovk and Mala Tokmachka, but there are also no confirmed gains.

Russian forces continue to conduct probes and raids along the West Bank of the Dnepr River and onto various islands in the lower Dnepr river

Air Operations 

Ukrainian forces, while conducting surface drone (USV) reconnaissance operations off Novorossiysk on May 2nd, shot down 2 x RuAF SU-30M aircraft. The MAGURA-7 drone (about 26 feet in length) carries 2 x AIM-9 AAM missiles.

During the night of  May 4th - May 5th  Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 116 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 42 drones, and 21 drones were “lost" (due to EW). Damage was reported in Sumy oblast, but all reports were not yet in.

During the night of  May 3rd Russian forces launched 165 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 69 drones, and 80 drones were “lost" (due to EW). Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kyiv oblasts.

During the night of  May 2nd Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic m missiles and 183 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 74 drones, and 73 drones were “lost" (due to EW). Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Sumy oblasts.

During the night of  May 1st Russian forces launched 150 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 64 drones, and 62 drones were “lost" (due to EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

During the night of April 30th - May 1st Russian forces launched 5 x Iskander ballistic missile and 170 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 74 drones, and 68 drones were “lost" (due to EW). Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts.

Russian tacair strikes continue, with daily totals averaging approximately 20 towns per day being hit.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May1 May5

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.19 60.29

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 58.39 57.19

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.43 3.56

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.35 5.33

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 81.97 80.50

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.66 41.57

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 58.70 55.03

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 N/A N/A

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.29 58.53

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which serves as something of a single marker for the price of oil world wide, has not traded this low since February 2021. This low price is said to reflect anticipated lower demand due to overall lower world-wide economic activity. As such, it is a disturbing signal to Russia which relies on oil sales for a significant slice of the federal budget (estimated to be roughly 30% of the budget this year). The budget deficit for the year was originally estimated at 0.5% but as of last Friday (May 1st) has been recalculated at 1.7%.

Thoughts 

President Xi’s visit to Moscow has been confirmed by China’s Foreign Office. Xi is to arrive May 7th and return to Beijing on May 10th.

On the front lines and in the theater as a whole, Russian forces remain engaged, troops are rotating in and out, and troops and supplies are being moved around as one would expect. But with Xi in attendance, and much of the world at least aware of the parade, if not watching, might Putin engage in some grand-standing, simply declare a long-term ceasefire, if for no other reason than to embarrass Ukraine if it didn’t go along?

Putin gives the V-E Day speech, and then says “We won in Ukraine” (he defines victory the way he wants), announces a general ceasefire - beyond the 3 days he has already announced, and then waits for Kyiv to respond. Kyiv would almost certainly be unable to respond for a day or two, fighting continues, Putin gets to point an accusing finger at Kyiv.

Just speculating…

v/r pete