May 14th, 2025 Next Summary 16 May

Politics - Zelenskyy, Rubio already in Turkey, Putin and Trump not known yet

- Macron talks abut nuclear deterrence

Combat Ops - Russian gains at multiple points

- Drone strikes

Weather

Kharkiv

57 and rain showers, gusting near 20. Partly to mostly cloudy tomorrow and Friday, then rain daily through next Wednesday. Daily lows in the 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

61 and mostly cloudy, rain showers tonight, gusting to 20. Sunny tomorrow morning, then partly to mostly cloudy this week, more rain Saturday night and next week. Daily lows in the 40s, highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

67 and mostly cloudy, rain showers later tonight. Rain daily for the next six days. Daily lows in the 40s, and daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Zelenskyy’s office, as well as others in the Ukrainian government, have clarified that the decree signed in September 2022 that declared it illegal for anyone to negotiate with President Putin, meant anyone but Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy clarified that as President he is the constitutional negotiator with any foreign power.

Zelenskyy travels to Ankara Turkey today and will met with President Erdogan.

President Zelenskyy’s office commented that they are ready for any format of discussion, but the discussion must begin with “full and unconditional ceasefire,” and an exchange of prisoners.

SecState Rubio and Ambassador Witkoff are will arrive in Istanbul today.

Moscow still has not announced whether President Putin will travel to Istanbul to meet with President Zelenskyy.

President Trump is waiting to see; if Putin is attending, Trump will be in Istanbul. 

French President Macron, in an interview yesterday stated that France is prepared to enter into discussions with it’s European allies to stage French nuclear weapons in their countries, as does the US., part of an expansion of France’s nuclear deterrence doctrine.

"I proposed to go further. We are ready to open a discussion on the deployment of aircraft armed with nuclear bombs in some European countries.” He added 3 conditions:

"France will not pay for the security of others.”

“This will not be taken away from what we need.”

“ The final decision will always be with the French President.”

France currently has 4 x Triomphant class ballistic missile submarines, and 54 x ASMP-A air to surface missiles carried on Rafale aircraft. The ASMP-A (Air-Sol Moyenne Portée-Amélioré (ASMP-A: Improved ASMP)) is a 300 mile range, mach 3 missile, carrying a 100KT - 300KT warhead.

The only other European nuclear power is the UK which has withdrawn all nuclear weapons from service with the exception of Trident missiles aboard the 4 x Vanguard class ballistic missile submarines.

The US reportedly has 100+/- free-fall bombs located at airbases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey.

British and Swedish troops are in Finland for a NATO exercise Northern Strike 25. A total of 6,500 troops to include Finish armored forces , Swedish army and air force personnel and British army personnel are involved with the exercise in a training range near the Russian border.

Live fire training will include Finnish AF F-18s and British Army Apache attack helicopters.

The exercise runs from May 12th through May 31st.

The Russian Army has shifted forces closer to the Finish border in response to the exercise.

Note that different elements of the exercise have different namesNorthern Star 24, Mighty Arrow 25 and Northern Strike 125; Mighty Arrow 25 includes the British Army working with the Finish Armored Brigade, Northern Strike is the tactical aircraft strike portion of the exercise, etc.

Ground Operations

SUMY OBLAST

Fighting continues in the vicinity of Tetkino (north-west of Sumy) as well as north-east of Sumy inside Ukraine; imagery confirmed Russian forces moving into the small towns of Vodolahy and Bilovody, about a mile-and-a-half to two miles inside Ukraine. Vodolahy is a small farming village - 2 parallel streets and perhaps 45 - 50 houses, Bilovody is slightly larger, straddling the Snahist River, with perhaps 150 house.

Blogs and associated maps continue to reflect Ukrainian elements just across the border in the Kursk and Belgorod oblasts but there is no indiction of the size of the remaining forces and there were no reports of any combat operations yesterday in those areas.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continues in both small Russian salients north of Kharkiv and Russian bloggers claimed Russian gains near Lyptsi and near Vovchansk, but neither has been confirmed.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces continue to probe and shoot and operations were reported along most of the line of contact but, with one exception, there were no confirmed gains and only a handful of claimed gains. However, imagery did confirm that Russian forces made gains in the area of Ridkodub, a small town about 9 miles north-west of Terny. The town is cut roughly north-west - south-east by a seasonal river (by late summer its just muddy low ground), with the town on both sides the river on slightly elevated land, north of the river being perhaps 50 to 100 feet above the river, south of the river the land is perhaps 45 - 70 feet higher.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continued east of Siversk and on the western edge of Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines in these areas.

Further south, in the Toretsk area, Ukrainian forces pushed south along the T0516 roadway and imagery confirmed that they retook some ground inside the west edge of Toretsk.

At the same time Russian forces had confirmed gains on the north-west edge of Toretsk (within a mile of the Ukrainian gains), as well as along the northern edge of the town. Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian gains to the south-west of Toretsk, with Russian forces making gains across a front perhaps 5 miles long, from Kalynove to Romanivka (south-west of Toretsk), but there is no other reporting to support this.

DONETSK CITY

Russian forces made gains both east of Pokrovsk, as well as south-west of Pokrovsk, Of note, Russian sources claim that Russian forces took Malynivka (which straddles the T0504 roadway, just west of the large turn to the north), and Russian forces were active in 16 towns east and and south-west of Pokrovsk. Further to the south Russian forces continue to press westward along the line of the Vovcha river and reporting suggests further Russian gains in the town of Bahatyr, though this has not been independently confirmed.

Further south, in the front north-west of Velyka Novosilke, Russian forces appear to have made several gains along the Novopil to Vesele line, taking control of Novosilke, and gaining terrain near Zelene Pole and Dniproenerhiya.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces were active both west and south-east of Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. On the Dnepr, there are reports of Russian forces taking control of an island in the Dnepr river near Nova Kakhovka (where the dam used to be), but this has not been confirmed.

Air Operations

During the night of  May 13th - 14th Russian forces launched at least 1 ballistic missile and more than 80 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 80 drones, the number of “lost” drones (brought down by EW) has not yet been released. Damage has been reported in Kharkiv, Kherson and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 13 towns along the front lines.

During the night of  May 12th - 13th Russian forces launched 10 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down all 10 drones; there were no damage reports.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 May13 May14

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 65.57 65.81

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 62.65 62.84

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.67 3.56

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17      5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.08 5.17

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 80.45 80.26

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.49

Urals 56.56    71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 58.70 59.77

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 48.90 N/C N/C

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 60.78 61.91

Thoughts 

Macron’s suggesting French nuclear weapons might be staged further east is the first time France has considered positioning nuclear weapons outside France. Previously France has always made it very clear that weapons were separate from any NATO considerations. Macron’s three points reconfirm that, but still, the idea that French nuclear weapons would be at a NATO base is an interesting development - and Russia has already condemned it.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov commented that:

"The proliferation of nuclear weapons on the European continent is something that will not add security, predictability and stability…Right now, the entire system of strategic stability and security is in a deplorable state for obvious reasons.”

As you all may recall, the old Soviet lexicon used the phrase “strategic stability” to mean the situation was predictable to them, it was “per the model.” Instability meant uncertainty and made decision-making harder, more risky, and thus they were less likely to try something rash.

We’ll see.

v/r pete