May 16th, 2025 Next Summary May 19th

Politics - Maximal demands, as expected

- Agreement on release of 1,000 POWs 

- Meet Tomorrow morning

Ground - Some Russian gains

- Ukrainian forces expect Russia preparing for summer offensive 

- Drone strikes continue, F-16 lost

Weather

Kharkiv

70 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy tomorrow, then 4 days of rain. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

68 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Rain Saturday, cloudy Sunday, more rain Monday and Tuesday. Daily lows in the 40s, highs in the low 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

43 and rain. Rain tomorrow and into Sunday, then partly to mostly cloud all next week. Daily lows in the 40s, and daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators - led by Ukraine’s MinDef Umerov and Russia’s Presidential Advisor Medinsky - met in Istanbul to resume bilateral negotiations. They are scheduled to meet again on Friday at 1045 local time. The talks last about 2 hours.

President Zelenskyy met with Turkey’s President Erdogan in Ankara yesterday, and then flew to Albania.

As should have been expected, Russia began the negotiations with maximal demands, to include Crimea and all 4 oblasts, threats ti take Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, and reduction of Ukraine’s army to a token force. Ukraine of course rejected it.

They did, however agree to a turnover of 1,000 POWs each.

Medinsky did state that he was satisfied with the first day.

“We are satisfied with the results of the negotiations with Ukraine, - the head of the Russian delegation Medinsky. We are ready to talk further, the exchange of prisoners 1000 for 1000 will take place in the coming days.”

Today, from Albania, at 0930 EDT, Zelenskyy, plus Macron (France), Merz (Germany), Starmer (UK) and Tusk (Poland) had a phone conversation with Trump to discuss the days events in Istanbul. (Zelenskyy et al are at the summit of the European Political Community in Tirana (Albania)).

Zelenskyy commented:

"I spoke with US President Donald Trump, along with President Macron, Federal Chancellor Merz, Prime Ministers Starmer and Tusk. We discussed the meeting in Istanbul. Ukraine is ready to take the fastest possible steps for the sake of real peace, and it is important that the world holds strong positions. Our position: if the Russians refuse a complete and unconditional ceasefire and killings, there must be strong sanctions. Pressure on Russia must be maintained until Russia is ready to end the war.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan commented: 

“As a result of intensive diplomatic efforts, Russian and Ukrainian delegations held a meeting in Istanbul, facilitated by Türkiye. As a result of the meeting, they agreed to exchange one thousand people from each country as a confidence-building measure. They also agreed to share with the other side in writing the conditions that would make it possible to reach a ceasefire. The parties also agreed in principle to meet again.”

Separately, the bodies of 909 Ukrainian dead were returned to Ukraine.

Ground Operations

SUMY OBLAST

There are multiple reports of Ukrainian and Russian forces engaged around Tetkino (northwest of Sumy, along the border), north-east of Sumy - inside Ukraine), north-east of Sumy - just across the border in Kursk Oblast, and east of Sumy - just inside Belgorod Oblast. In each case it remains unclear as to the size of the forces engaged, and there are no confirmed changes in the lines. 

Concerning the size of the units involved in each of these small pockets, in each case, the string of reporting over the past several weeks suggests that the units are somewhere between company size (100 or so troops) to small battalions (400 or so troops), but that might be off as well, and the Ukrainian units continue to endure artillery and drone strikes that would, presumably, have wiped out several hundred men by now… Regular reporting refers to elements of a brigade or regiment, but that is in large part due to the reports not breaking down past brigade echelon, even if it is only a company being reported on.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Russian forces were reported assaulting Ukrainian positions in near Hlyboke and several towns west of Hlyboke, as well as in Vovchansk and east of Vovchansk to Tyhke, but there were no changes in the front lines.

Ukrainian forces are reporting on additional Russian forces moving into the area and are speculating that Russia is prepping for a summer offensive north of Kharkiv in the near term.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces were active along the entire line of contact but around Kupyansk, and north along the Oskil river there were no changes noted.

South of Kupyansk, in the areas east of Borova there was, again no change noted in the front lines.

Further south along the southern end of the Zherebets River, Russian forces gained ground in and around Torske.

BAKHMUT

Fighting was reported in seven different towns north and west of Bakhmut, but there were no confirmed gains in any area.

Further south, in and around Toretsk, Ukrainian forces had imagery confirmed gains north of the town, and Russian forces probably had gains north-east of the town.

At the same time Russian sources reported credible Russian gains along an arc from Romanivka west to Zorya, south to Hnativka, then north-west to Oleksandropil, and across the T0504 roadway to Rusyn Yar.

This is all farmland and small towns, but the Russians are grinding northward, taking the land between the towns, and moving up the roads. If, in fact, they have control of Rusyn Yar, north-west of the T0504 roadway, they are only 10 miles from downtown Kostyantynivka and ten miles from the main supply route that runs north-west out of Kostyantynivka; the next line of defense is 5 miles to the north-east.

DONETSK CITY

Russian forces continue to probe and attack across the entire front in the Pokrovsk region, with assaults reported in 18 different towns. There were claims of gains in multiple towns, particularly around Novoserhiivka, south-west of Pokrovsk, along the Solona River, within a mile of the Dnipropetrovsk border, but this remains unconfirmed.

There were also claims of Russian gains east of Pokrovsk around the town of Malynivka, but these also were not confirmed.

South of Pokrovsk, the front line now runs from the center of Bahatyr south-west to Vesele, and north-east to, passing just east of Oleksiivka and then a bit west of due north to Troitske and Kotliarivka, before turning and running north-easterly to Udachne.

Further south, fighting continues on the Novopil - Vesele line, and imagery confirms that the town of Vilne Pole, located about 4 miles south-west of Vesele, has been taken by Russian forces. Vilne Pole is a small farming town in the middle of manicured fields, but also sits astride one of the better secondary north-south roads in the area.

Russian gains were also reported further to the south-west in the area of Novopil, but not confirmed.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues west of Orikhiv on the Stepove - Mali Shcherbaky line, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Ukrainian reporting notes that Russian forces have taken control of several islands in Dnepr delta, up river from Kherson.

As noted before, Russian forces raid along the West Bank and raid these islands, taking control and holding the islands for limited periods of time, then are pushed off, and then repeat the process, with each of these islands switching sides multiple times during the past three years. 

Air Operations 

During the night of  May 15th - 16th Russian forces launched more than 73 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 73 drones, and an unknown number of drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage has been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Poltava  and Sumy oblasts.  

A ballistic missile strike was reported in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 11 towns along the front lines.

During the night of  May 14th - 15th Russian forces launched 110 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 62 drones, the 29 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage has been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Poltava  and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 13 towns along the front lines.

During the night of  May 13th - 14th Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 145 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 80 drones, and that 42 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was been reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Odessa, Rivne, Sumy and Ternopil oblasts.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 13 towns along the front lines.

The UAF lost an F-16 due to “an unusual situation onboard.”

The pilot safely ejected.

Anecdotal reporting reflects greater Russian use of fiber optic guided FPV drones on the battle field.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 May14 May16

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 65.81 64.78

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 62.84 61.92

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.56 3.44

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17      5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.17 5.29

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 80.26 80.83

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.49 41.49

Urals 56.56    71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 59.77 57.40

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 48.90 N/C 61.32

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.91 59.61

Thoughts 

“I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together….Nothing’s going to happen until Russian President Vladimir Putin and I get together, OK?…I didn’t think it was possible for Putin to go if I’m not there.”

So said President Trump and I suspect he is correct. As I, and I’m sure a host of others noted when several months ago when President Trump kicked off his effort to end the war, we should expect some drama from Putin. He must be seen as being the great leader making the grand decisions.

I would suspect, after getting President Xi to journey to Moscow, he will want to see Trump go to Moscow. Perhaps a first meeting - Putin to the US, and then a second meeting in Moscow, where he will agree to a ceasefire, Putin seen before the world as equal to Trump and Xi…

v/r pete