May 29th, 2025

Politics - Trump Frustrated 

- NATO Defense Proposal - Bigger armies

- NATO Summit June 24-25

Combat Ops - More gains in the Russian center

Weather

Kharkiv

67 and rain, gusting over 20. Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday and Saturday, then clearing and party sunny for three days. Daily lows around 60, daily highs mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

73 and partly cloudy. Cloudy or partly cloudy for the next 5 days. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

71 and rain, gusting to 25. Rain tomorrow, sunny weekend, more clouds and rain starting Monday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump remains frustrated with President Putin’s failure to agree to ceasefire talks.

Trump commented that Putin was “Playing with fire,” adding that “We’re going to find out whether or not he’s tapping us along or not, and if he is, we’ll respond a little differently.”

At the same time Trump has said he is not ready to place new sanctions on Russia, hoping that Russia will agree to ceasefire and he does not want to block a deal.

SecState Rubio echoed Trump’s statement and called for a “good faith dialogue” between Ukraine and Russia.

Russia has proposed new talks in Istanbul on June 2nd.

A proposal from a meeting of NATO defense ministers will recommend that total NATO committed brigades be increased from the current 82 to 131 brigades, a proposal first discussed last fall.

In 2021 Germany agreed to increase its army from 8 brigades to 10 by 2030. Nominally, Germany has 8 brigades, with a 9th being stood up; the 9th brigade will be based in Lithuania.

Manning 8 more brigades would nominally mean 40,000 more personnel in the army (without any expansion of training or staffs or combat service support), but would actually force a substantial increase in the rest of the army in order to support another 40,000 combat troops.

Germany current army manning is about 63,000 personnel with 8 (plus 1 building) brigades. Germany will have a difficult time expanding to 16 brigades. In addition, Germany has had a very difficult time keeping the 8 brigades it has equipped with combat ready equipment.

In addition to increasing the size of NATO’s armies, the defense ministers and secretaries noted a need for substantial improvements in air defenses.

All of this will cost considerably more than 2% of GDP.

The new NATO brigade requirements do not reflect any possible US force drawdown as US forces shift in response to increased threats in the Pacific.

There will be a NATO summit in the Hague on June 24th and 25th.

Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada’s (parliament) Committee on National Security continues to adjust the medical standards for military service and, per Fedir Venislavskyi, a member of the committee, more than half of all people currently placed in the “unfit for service” category have recently been reexamined and “99%” were re-designated as fit for service, 50% being fit without restrictions.

"This indicates that at one time the opportunity to be recognized as limitedly fit was a loophole for abuse and for avoiding compulsory military service at that time…Moreover, there are very few complaints about any violations of the regulatory grounds for recognizing fit or unfit.”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLAST

Russian forces along the border in the Novyi Put area had confirmed gains south-east of Novyi Put. 

Inside Ukraine arcing across the area from east to west is a small river (the Pavlivka River) which creates a 500 - 1,000 foot wide area of marsh. But on both sides of that marshy area is more manicured farmland, sliced up into large, mainly rectangular fields, separated by large hedges-rows which really are lines of densely planted trees. Novyi Put is a just a named spot near the border, about a mile south of the small Russian town of Obukhovka, about 23 - 24 miles west-north-west of Sumy city. Russian forces appear to have moved past Novyi Put and along the Russian side of the border, south-east to the next tree line.

Fighting was reported elsewhere in Sumy Oblast, with Russian forces attacking more than a half dozen towns, and Russian sources claiming more gains along the border, but these have not been confirmed. Nor were there any reported changes in the status of Ukrainian elements along the Belgorod oblast border.

Russian forces north of Kharkiv were active in the Vovchansk and Tykhe area; Russian sources claimed gains pushing south, and that Russian forces had reached the northern bank of the Vovcha River as it runs past those two towns, but this has not been confirmed.

 NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian sources report that Russian forces have taken the small Ukrainian town of Stroivka, along the Russia - Ukraine border, about 4 miles north of the Oskil River. The village was abandoned in February of 2022 but was reoccupied in autumn of 2023 after extensive mine-clearing; it was thought to have less than 50 inhabitants.

Elsewhere north of Kupyansk Russian forces continue to attack to the north-west and west but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Further south, fighting was reported in or around 15 different towns along the line of contact but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

BAKHMUT

North and north-east of Bakhmut there were no reported changes in the front lines. 

In Chasiv Yar imagery confirmed Russian forces on the street that forms the western edge of the town, where reporting has suggested Ukrainian forces were holding a small lodgment; this would suggest that Russian forces have rolled over or otherwise eliminated that position. There was additional reporting claiming Russian gains to the south of Chasiv Yar but these are not confirmed.

In the Toretsk area Russian forces had confirmed gains north of the town.

DONETSK AND THE RUSSIAN CENTER

Russian forces continue to gain ground with Russian forces having confirmed gains up the H20 roadway, north of Romanivka, closing on Yablunivka. At the same time, there were Russian claims of further gains up the T0504 roadway, reportedly gaining ground in the area of Rusyn Yar. There were also reports of Russian gains west of Toretsk in the Shcherbynivka area 

At the same time, Russian forces in the Pokrovsk area were reported conducting probes and assaults in 17 towns, with small gains confirmed about 8 miles east of Pokrovsk.

Fighting was also reported in the Komar area (north of Vesele), but these reports probably refer to Russian forces pushing westward and northward through Odradne, about 4 miles east of Komar.

In the “south-east corner” Russian forces operating along Novopil - Vesele line were geolocated in imagery in the town of Zelene Pole, just north of Novopil and reportedly have moved through that town and are pressing westward towards Temyrivka. Zelene Pole had, at one time, a population just short of 600, and is surrounded by manicured fields, and sits less than a half mile east of the Donetsk - Zaporizhzhia oblast border. Temyrivka, another small farming village is a bit more than a half mile west of the same border. Temyrivka is a smaller village, with a pre-war population just over 100. Russian forces rolled over both towns in 2022 and the towns were evacuated, but then the from line moved south of the two towns later in the year, but it isn’t known whether anyone moved back.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues west of Orikhiv but with no changes in the front line. South-east of Orikhiv there are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces, pressing up T0815 roadway, have entered the south-east corner of Mala Tokmachka.

Air Operations

During the night of  May 28th Russian forces launched 90 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down  46 drones, and 10 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Donetsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF assets conducted air strikes on 15 towns across the front.

During the 27th-28th Ukrainian forces struck the Kronstadt drone factory and the Raduga missile plant, with in Dubna, (about 50 miles north of Moscow), as well as the Elma Technology Park in Zelenograd (about 15 miles north-west of Moscow).

This morning an explosion and fire were reported at a Russian defense contractor in the St. Petersburg area.

During the night of  May 26th and day of the 27th Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile and 60 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 35 drones, and 8 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Chernyhiv (ballistic missile strike), Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson oblasts.

RuAF assets conducted air strikes on 16 towns across the front.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 May27 May29

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 64.34 65.20

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 61.12 62.12

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.32 3.56

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17      5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.31 5.28

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 80.33 78.51

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.64 41.52

Urals 56.56    71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 58.71 58.60

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 48.90 64.19 64.31

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 59.57 60.91

Thoughts 

The NATO defense ministers are well aware that besides their forces being too small for most tasks, they all suffer from poor readiness. Consider the Royal Navy Task Force built around their carrier Prince of Wales: a Royal Navy Frigate and an RN support ship, plus Norwegian frigate and a Norwegian tanker, a Canadian Frigate, and 2 US Navy destroyers. This was not done because they wanted to do it this way…

Germany has had trouble maintaining readiness of the tanks and artillery that support their current 8 brigades; this will compound that problem.

A study last year in Military Review pointed out that the United Kingdom is the only force in NATO - besides the US - that has the necessary heavy lift to support a deployed brigade on its own; every other NATO nation will need assistance from others, to include contractor support, to keep a brigade forward.

Further, a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies that looked at the period form 2022 to 2024 found that NATO members had made substantial progress in overall defense spending, forward defense, command and control, and improved readiness. But, the study also found that, despite the churn surrounding the war in Ukraine, NATO had not made a great deal of progress in sustaining forces over the long term: “NATO is not ready for a protracted war.”

Creating new units, standing them up, equipping those units and training those units may feel great. But if not done right, that could actually degrade the readiness of the existing forces.

Should be an interesting summit in June.

v/r pete