May 22nd, 2025

Politics - Trump: Putin doesn’t want to end war

- Trump, Rubio: End the war

- Polish Candidate: No NATO for Ukraine

Combat Ops - Pockets developing south-east of Kostiantinivka

Economy - Ruble strongest in 2 years

- EU $26 Billion for Russian energy in 2024

Weather

Kharkiv

75 and sunny, gusting near 20. Partly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows around 60, daily highs around 80. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

73 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny to partly cloudy through Tuesday, Monday and Tuesday windy. Tomorrow’s low in the low 50s, after that daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs near 80. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

79 and partly cloudy. Mostly cloudy through Monday, rain showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Trump, during his conversation with several European leaders, commented that President Putin doesn’t want to end the war as he believes he is in a strong position. 

While others called for sanctions and demanded an unconditional ceasefire, Trump reportedly demurred, stating that he doesn’t like the word unconditional.

Confirming the Trump intentions to find room for a deal, SecState Rubio declined to label President Putin a war criminal. When asked whether Russia was the aggressor, and whether Putin was a war criminal, Rubio commented:

"Yes, Russia invaded Ukraine. They invaded them, yes… You can look at instances that have happened there and certainly characterize them as war crimes, but our intent is to end the war…We can’t end the war without talking to Mr Putin.”

"I’m answering your question… And the answer is that war crimes have been committed. No doubt. And who was responsible for that, there will be a time and place for that accountability. But right now, the job is to end the war.”

Karol Nawrocki, opposition candidate for Poland’s presidency, has accepted, as part of the process of building a coalition, a pledge to not support Ukraine’s NATO membership.

 Poland becomes the 8th country to state that it opposes Ukraine’s membership, already stated by: Belgium, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and the US. 

He also pledged, among other things, that he would not allow Polish troops be sent to Ukraine.

Ground Operations

After President Putin visited Kursk yesterday, and the comments made in the negotiation sessions last week that suggested Russia wants Sumy oblast, there is speculation that Russians forces will try to take Sumy doing the summer offensive. It should be noted that the terrain - in particular the rather dense woods that lie north and north-east of the city of Sumy (between Sumy and the border) were not taken by the Russians in the initial invasion in 2022 and other, similar woods (the Serebrianske forest along the north bank of the Donets River, for example) have proven to be difficult pieces of terrain to move through. Russia may, in fact go after Sumy, but it will be a hard fight.

KURSK AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Conflicting reports continue from the Tetkino area, both that the last Ukrainians elements have been pushed back into Ukraine and that Ukrainian elements are active just outside the small Russian town of Novyi Put, about 9 miles east of Tetkino, just inside Russia. There were no reports of any other fighting in the Kursk or Belgorod oblasts.

Russian forces north-east of Sumy, inside Ukraine, continued small element assaults but there were no changes in the front lines.

Further south, north of Kharkiv, fighting continues in and around Vovchansk but there were no changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued the length of the line of contact, but there were no changes.

Of note, more reports have surfaced of the build-up of Russian forces in the general area east of Kupyansk. 

BAKHMUT and DONETSK CITY

President Zelenskyy labeled the situation in the Donetsk area as “most intense situation,” lending credence to the assessment that the Russian summer offensive has begun.

Fighting continues east of Siversk and west and south of Chasiv Yar, but there were no changes in the front lines. In the Chasiv Yar area there have also been reports of the build-up of Russian forces, as well as commentary of battlefields criss-crossed by thin fiber optics lines as the Russian steadily increase their use of fiber-optic controlled FPV drones.

There were no changes in the immediate area of Toretsk, but Russian troops were active in 11 towns in the Toretsk area, and appear to be engaged just outside of Zorya, just west of Romanivka.

The Russian effort in this area - whether this is officially the Russian summer offensive or not appears moot - is to push up the general line of the T0504 Roadway, push north from the Romanivka area along the H50 roadway and push north-west from Toretsk toward the Kleban Byk reservoir. This cuts in two the pocket west of Toretsk, forming an east and west half, At the same time, the very slow grind westward from Chasiv Yar to Kostiantinivka generates a pocket between the Donets Canal on the east and the Toretsk-to-reservoir line on the west. This eastern-most pocket still has multiple LOCs connecting it to Kostiantinivka. The other two pockets are not as easy supplied, with the eastern most (the middle pocket) possibly already cut off and the western one with only one secure road and one road that is under direct fire from the Russians.

Further south, around Pokrovsk, Russian forces conducted probes and assaults in 20 different towns from just east of Pokrovsk to west and south-west of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed gains.

Further south, Russian forces claimed gains just east of Oleksiivka and in the vicinity of Bahatyr, but these could not be confirmed.

And along the Novopil to Vesele line Russian forces had confirmed gains east of Vesele and in the Novopil area.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting was reported across southern Ukraine but there were no confirmed changes in the from line.

SPECIAL OPERATIONS

Russian sources are reporting a Ukrainian “sabotage team” was sighted just south-west of Bryansk (Bryansk is a Russian city about 60 miles north of Ukraine, 60 miles east of Belarus).

On Tuesday night a Ukrainian element used drones to strike a semiconductor plant in Bolkhov (about 60 miles east of Bryansk). The building caught fire, but there is no damage estimate.

Whether the two are related isn't known. The Russian MOD reported it shot down 64 Ukrainian drones during the night of the 20th.

Air Operations

During the night of  May 21st-22nd Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and probably one S-300 ballistic missile, and 129 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 74 drones, and that 38 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad and Mykolaiv oblasts; the Iskander ballistic missile struck in Kropyvnyskyi, Korovohrad oblast, the probable S-300 in Kharkiv.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 5 towns along the front lines.

During the night of  May 20th-21st Russian forces launched 76 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 63 drones, and that 41 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Kharkiv and Kyiv oblasts.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 8 towns along the front lines.

There are still conflicting stories on the 20 May (Tuesday)  Iskander missile strike on the Ukrainian army training facility; Ukraine maintains 6 were killed, Russia that 70+ were killed. Publicly available video (from a drone) shows perhaps 100 troops moving along a road who then go under some trees and then a short time later the missile hits. So, what exactly happened can’t be determined from the video..

During the night of  May 19th-20th Russian forces launched 108 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 35 drones, and that  58 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Donetsk and Kherson oblasts.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 8 towns along the front lines.

Russian air defense forces claimed to have shot down 105 Ukrainian drones during the night of 21-22 May, and more than 300 drones during the night of 20-21 May.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 May20 May22

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 65.49 63.67

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 62.65  60.38

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.16 3.34

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17      5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.38 5.42

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 80.53 79.76

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.52 41.52

Urals 56.56    71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 58.57 59.97

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 48.90 N/C 64.46

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 60.40 59.99

The Ruble exchange rate was last this strong in May of 2023.

Reuters is reporting that so far in the month of May India has been purchasing 1.8 million barrels per day of ESPO oil at a 50 cents per barrel premium to Dubai crude (reflected above).

The EU Commissioner for Energy reported on EU use of Russian energy:

"Before 2022, half of the coal we used in the EU was from Russia. This we have stopped completely. On oil, we have gone from 26% to 3% of our oil being from Russia. And finally gas. We have gone from 45% of our gas coming from Russia in 2022 to 13% today. So, we have come far. But not far enough. Last year, we in the EU paid €23 billion [$26 billion] to Russia for our energy imports."

Thoughts 

Trying to size the “maybe” Russian offensive works out to something like this:

There are some 600,000 - 700,000 Russian troops in the war zone right now; 

• roughly 100,000 are stretched out across the south
• between Kursk, Belgorod, and the incursions due north of Kharkiv there are perhaps 50,000 troops
• North of the Donets River following the arc of the Oskil river to the Russian border there are perhaps 100,000 troops
• From the general Bakhmut area southward past Donetsk City to the area north-west of Velyka Novosilke, there are, assuming the rest of the math is correct, 350,000 - 450,000. This works out to (following the twists and turns of the front line) a bit more than 200 miles. Per the Ukrainian bloggers, there are roughly 100 brigades and regiments in that sector of the front. Given that the various brigades and regiments are not fully manned, and probably don’t have much more than 2,000 troops each, this would seem to be about right. Assuming a quarter of those brigades are rotating to the rear, that leaves 75 Russian brigades in the area.

What do the Ukrainian forces have in same area? Russian blogger maps show perhaps 40 Ukrainian brigades in the area, though there does not seem to be any rotation of units taking place. The Russian bloggers also show that there are a total of 5 or 6 Ukrainian brigades inside the two pockets west of Toretsk and they are already appear to be withdraw. 

If correct, this part of the Russian summer offensive could be over quickly (as much as anything in this war happens quickly), and the Russians would flow to the attack on Kostiantinivka. But if these Ukrainian units are withdrawing that should be evident within the next week.

v/r pete