May 20th, 2025

Politics - Trump - Putin phone call - Trump says “Went well.”

- Or Nothing of Substance?

Combat Ops - Gains north-east of Pokrovsk 

- Gains in southern Ukraine?

Weather

Kharkiv

60 and cloudy. Partly cloudy to sunny through Saturday. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

59 and rain showers, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy to sunny rest of week. Daily lows around 50, highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

54, mostly cloudy, gusting to 25. Partly to mostly cloudy for the week, rain on the weekend. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the low 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump spoke for nearly two hours with President Putin yesterday, and was optimistic after the conversation, and posted the following:

Just completed my two hour call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. 

I believe it went very well. Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War. The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of. The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent. If it wasn’t, I would say so now, rather than later. Russia wants to do large scale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic “bloodbath” is over, and I agree. There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED. Likewise, Ukraine can be a great beneficiary on Trade, in the process of rebuilding its Country. 

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin immediately. 

I have so informed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, President Emmanuel Macron, of France, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, of Italy, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, of Germany, and President Alexander Stubb, of Finland, during a call with me, immediately after the call with President Putin. 

The Vatican, as represented by the Pope, has stated that it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations. 

Let the process begin!

SecState Rubio then commented:

"On the one hand, we’re trying to achieve peace and end a very bloody, costly, and destructive war. So there’s some element of patience that is required. On the other hand, we don’t have time to waste. There are a lot of other things happening in the world that we also need to be paying attention to. So we don’t want to be involved in this process of just endless talks. There has to be some progress, some movement forward.”

Referring to various proposals, he added: 

"If those papers have ideas on them that are realistic and rational, then I think we know we’ve made progress.” 

The Kremlin (the Spokesman Peskov) commented:

”The conversation is important, taking into account the negotiations held in Istanbul. As for the talks, we [in the Kremlin] have already said everything we could, we underscored the basic points. We will now wait for it. We will give the maximum information possible based on the results of the conversation.” 

"There are no deadlines and there cannot be any. Of course, everyone wants to do this as quickly as possible, but clearly, the devil is in the details. Everyone is interested in the quickest possible settlement regarding Ukraine, and Russia is interested in dealing with the root causes of the conflict.”

President Zelenskyy commented that:

“It is obvious that Russia is trying to buy time in order to continue its war and occupation,” 

Earlier, Zelenskyy commented that:

“It is crucial for all of us that the United States does not distance itself from the talks and the pursuit of peace, because the only one who benefits from that is Putin.” 

German Chancellor Merz commented:

“Europe will increase the pressure on Moscow through sanctions. This is what we agreed upon with @POTUS after his conversation with Putin.”

A slightly different take on the talk between Trump and Putin from “The Atlantic” reduced the talk to the conclusion that Putin realized he is still driving the conversation and that Trump can’t end the war and knows it.

Their take was that "nothing of substance" came from the call, with Putin commenting:

We have agreed with the president of the United States that Russia will propose and is ready to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum [the proposals SecState Rubio mentioned] on a possible future peace accord, defining a number of positions, such as, for example, the principles of settlement, the timing of a possible peace agreement.

 

Ground Operations

SUMY OBLAST

Imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces hold a small portion of the town of Tetkino (north-west of Sumy City) just inside Russian territory. The Ukrainians appear to have temporarily occupied a large, open field (groomed farmland, but the land is flat and featureless and is split by a road, and the Russians have confirmed control of the road all the way to the  Ukraine border, making control of the field unlikely. 

Russian forces remained active northeast of Sumy, on Ukrainian territory, but there are no confirmed changes in the front line.

East of Sumy, along the border with Belgorod Oblast, Russian MOD claims that Russian forces have pushed across the border and seized the small town of Mar'ine. Marine is a village of perhaps 10 - 15 houses strung out along one street which leads to the border. As of the last week of April a Ukrainian element of unknown size was penned in, in the tree lines just north (on the Russian side) of the border. While pressing across the border serves the stated Russian goal of creating a buffer zone, it is likely that the movement was one of following the Ukrainian forces as they withdrew.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continues in Vovchansk and just east of Vovchansk but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian and Ukrainian forces remained engaged along the entire line of contact, with both sides making gains in the center, east of Borova, 

West of the Zherebets River Russian forces were active along the line from Yampolivka and Kolodyazi to Karpivka to Novyi Mir, but there were no changes in the front lines.

Russian sources claim that Russian forces control Torske but Ukrainian forces denied it, stated that Russian forces have tried to infiltrate the city but have been unsuccessful in gaining control of any part of the city.

BAKHMUT

Russian forces north and north-east of Bakhmut continued probes and assaults, etc., but there were no confirmed gains.

West of Bakhmut, Russian forces had confirmed gains in south-west Chasiv Yar, and fighting was reported west of the Donets Canal, between the canal and Bila Hora, as well as about 1 mile west Kurdiumivka.

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces had gains north of Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces gaining ground to the north-east, near Dyliivka, and Russian forces gaining ground immediately north-west of Toretsk.

At the same time Russian source has multiple claims of Russian gains south-west and west of Toretsk, near the towns of Zorya, Romanivka, and Stara Mykolaivka. Key to this is that if the Russians have moved into Romanivka they are sitting on top of the H2- roadway, which would constitute the main Line of Communication (LOC) into the south and center of the pocket that is now forming. 

 DONETSK CITY

Russian forces in the Pokrovsk area remain on the attack and assaults were reported in or near 18 different towns. Ukrainian reporting varies and none show that Russian forces have reached the town of Rusyn Yar (10 miles south-west of Kostiantinivka), but they do show Russian forces 2 miles or less from that town’s southern edge. They also show Russian forces as having reached the south-west end of Yablunivka. Unconfirmed reporting also claims that Russian forces have pushed into Poltavka, which is located just west of Rusyn Yar.

Overall, fighting continues west, south-west and east of Pokrovsk, with engagements reported in 18 different towns in this area,.

South-west of Pokrovsk about 12 miles, between the towns of Kotlyarivka and Muravka, Russian forces had confirmed gains, and appear to be both moving from tree line to tree line as well as pushing down the course of small rivers and seasonal streams. 

The frontline west of Kurakhove now appears to run from Troitske to the eastern edge of Olesandrivka to the center of Bahatyr; Russian sources are claiming Russian control of Bahatyr but it appears there is still a fight for control of that town. At the same time, some Ukrainian blogs are reporting that there is still a fight on the western edge of Kostyantinopil, which would push the front line 3 miles further to the east in this area; confirmation by video has become the only way to establish the front line and even that has proven shaky from time to time.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues west of Orikhiv on the Stepove - Mali Shcherbaky line and some reporting suggests Russian forces have pressed well north of that line and picked up considerable ground in the direction of Lukyanivske and may be as much as a mile-and-a-half north of the T0812 roadway. 

There have been multiple reports of Russian forces moving into the general area south-west of Orikhiv, and of Russian preparations for an offensive in this area. But this is the first hint that such an offensive has begun. This may take several days to sort out.

There was also reporting of Russian forces active south, and south-east of Orikhiv, but there are no confirmed changes in the front line in those areas.

Air Operations

During the night of  May 19th-20th Russian forces launched 108 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 35 drones, and that  58 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage reported in Doentsk and Kherson oblast but all reports are not in yet.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 8 towns along the front lines.

During the night of  May 18th-19th Russian forces launched 112 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 76 drones, and that 35 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage reported in Cherkasy, Doentsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in at least 15 towns along the front lines.

Several European nations are passing around a plan for European (NATO) air forces to fly defensive patrols over western Ukraine and Ukrainian Air Force and air defense assets would move east to allow for denser defense coverage as well as allow deeper strikes into Russian territory,

The plan, now referred to as “Skyshield,” is reportedly being considered by France and the UK as part of some future ceasefire. The plan specifically calls for 120 fighter aircraft to be deployed Poland and Romania for basing, but they would fly CAP (Combat Air Patrols) over western Ukraine, directed primarily to shooting down cruise missiles and drones.

The plan admits that there would be little likelihood of NATO allowing the use of AWACS aircraft or tankers flying over western Ukraine.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 May19 May20

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 65.33 65.49

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 62.53 62.65 

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.18 3.16

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17      5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.31 5.38

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 80.15 80.53

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.49 41.52

Urals 56.56    71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 58.16 58.57

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 48.90 53.90 N/C

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 60.14 60.40

Thoughts 

Obviously divergent views of the conversation between Trump and Putin. How that shakes out may become apparent in the next few days, but it certainly doesn’t seem like Trump is going to give this a great deal of time. SecState Rubio’s comment as to what shows up on the various proposals (“memorandums”) in the near term seems to be an accurate assessment, that they will indicate whether Moscow is serious or not.

In the meantime, Russian forces are gain ground north-east of Pokrovsk, particularly in reaching Yablunivka and Romanivka, may threaten Kostiantinivka while also seeming to threaten Ukrainian forces in the pocket around Toretsk. Ukraine has to slow those Russian gains, just as the Russians will want to close up that pocket and create another kill box. If they do, it will be a long, bloody summer for the Ukrainian army.

v/r pete