Atone

October 1st 2025

Atone: to make amends…

I had a discussion a few weeks ago with two great friends, about, of all things, Joseph Conrad’s “The Heart of Darkness.” The story all comes to an intellectual and moral climax in the last words uttered by Kurtz: “The horror, the horror.”

Kurtz is talking about the horror that lies inside every man, the all too easy path to embrace evil. Most people know the story through the movie: “Apocalypse Now.”  It’s  perhaps of note that some people missed the implications of the telling of the story against the background of the war in Vietnam. Looked at from Kurtz’s perspective, the war wasn’t a unique horror, the horror was always there, in every man’s heart.

Over the past month or two I would suspect that most of us have had a few moments when we dwelled on evil… The horrible murder of a young woman on a subway train comes first to mind, as does the assassination of Charlie Kirk. 

One of the remarkable developments in the wake of his killing was, of course, the tremendous spike in violence: the many cities on fire, the rioting, the looting…

Or, I should say, the complete absence of it. 

There has not been, as far as I can discern, a single incident, not one, not in the United States, and not overseas, where he had quite a large following. Tens of millions of people who responded to violence - peacefully. 

There’ve been a number of prominent folks that I recall, over the last 50 years or so, who were willing to engage in debate, to sit down and talk, as friends, to those with whom they did not agree. And yet, they would shake hands, smile, listen to each other… One of my favorite people was William F. Buckley, arguably the creator of modern conservative thought, and yet a look at his friends showed this amazing span of people, many of whom clearly did not agree with him. His show (Firing Line) celebrated his intellect and wit, and yet he gave those with opposing views the opportunity to debate him, and convince the audience.

There were others who also were willing to debate, calmly, to talk things out, to work with those who oppose them to bring clarity to our society. Certainly Martin Luther King did this. So did Daniel Patrick Moynahan. So did Ronald Reagan. Even Reagan’s major “foe” in Washington for the first 6 years of his presidency, Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill, was willing to sit and talk with Reagan. And while they were clearly political opponents, after Reagan was shot, Reagan woke one day in his hospital room, and Tip O’Neill was sitting beside the bed, praying the Rosary.

There is, of course, a single reason for that. It is the reason for Mrs. Kirk’s remarkable poise and her mercy; I suspect most of us are humbled by her remarkable mercy. Could I do that? I doubt it. I don't know and hope to never find out. And while Mr Kirk was a smart guy and an excellent speaker, he is not the reason for her strength.  Her strength, the strength she shared with her husband, the strength shared by King and Moynihan and Buckley and Reagan, was, is, faith in God. 

And it’s worth saying, particularly with October 2nd right around the corner (Yom Kippur) their faith was the faith of the Bible, the moral foundation of the Founding Fathers, the more foundation of our country - our country.

Charlie Kirk was willing to engage in debate - in friendly debate. People could disagree, but he would smile and shake hands. King, Buckley, Reagan, Moynihan - and there are others - were willing to debate, and in how they did it they inspired tens of millions. Kirk inspired them in such a manner that after this horrific event, there has not been one violent act by anyone using his murder as justification. It was the civil "civil discourse" that this country needs.

If you have found yourself on that side of the divide, wondering what can be done, what you can do, to bring us all together, quietly, peacefully, then wonderful, press on. You don’t need to agree with Mr Kirk at all, just so long as you agree with the approach, with the idea that we can talk, shake hands, as Americans, as God’s children.

If, on the other hand you find yourself glad for Kirk’s death, and hating - hating anyone: Kirk, a politician, a neighbor, a political foe, someone on TV you've never even met, you need to sit back and think about things. That hate isn't going to get you anything. Consider again that there has been no violence in response to his death - zero violence. That should tell you a great deal about the intellectual and emotional and spiritual divide in this country, and should make you ask yourself why you are on the particular side of that chasm. Why are you so agitated? Why are you on the side of hate? The dichotomy between the two sides should strike you; it should, in fact, grip you viscerally. 

The hate that some seem to swim in won’t benefit them. Maybe the people who have poked and prodded others to hate, maybe they’ll benefit, at least for a short while from this hate, but not in the long run, and not in the next life certainly. And really not in the long run here. They won’t benefit and neither will those they have convinced to hate.

So, if you do find that you are hating - someone, anyone, maybe try opening a Bible. How hard can that be? Just a book; pick it up, flip it open, anywhere, start reading. If that’s too hard right now, start with just saying hello to the neighbor you “hate.” Maybe start simple, forgive an old friend you fell out with… Just try not to hate… Say thanks to God for the heart that beats in your chest and the opportunity to smile at a neighbor and hope for a better world… Maybe on the 2nd… the Day of Atonement...

 OCTOBER 1st, 2025

Politics - Russian Oil Purchases by European nations

- EU to provide money for Drone Production 

Combat Ops - Marginal gains on ground, poor weather affecting mobility

Weather

A short, intense storm system struck Odessa yesterday, dropping between 6 and 8 inches of rain in 7 hours. The resulting flooding killed at least 9 people, and so far 362 people had to be rescued by city fore and rescue personnel. More severe weather is predicted for Thursday.

Rains continue over much of the country - will impact mobility

Kharkiv

49 and cloudy, gusting to 25. Rain tonight and again on Sunday, cloudy all week. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs around 60. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

52 and rain,  gusting over 25. Cloudy all week, rain possible on the weekend. Daily lows around 50, daily highs in the 60s.  Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

51 and cloudy, gusting to 25. Rain tonight and tomorrow, then cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, highs rising into the 60s by Sunday. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics 

Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Spain have sent more money to Russia - purchasing energy - since 2022, than they have provided Ukraine aid. THe purchases have primarily been of LNG.

The four countries have purchased $40.1 billion in in LNG from Russia, while providing $24.8 billion in aid to Ukraine.

In addition to the four countries named above, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, and Slovakia continue to buy energy from Russia.

Nor should it be missed that Russian oil is sold to middle men who mix it with other oil, then sell it - legally to other nations where it is refined and then refined products are purchased by European countries, and that this loop hole has been known since the first sanctions were leveled against Russia.

EU Commission President von der Leyen announced the EU will provide 2 billion euros ($2.34 billion) to Ukraine for drone production, with some funds to be turned over immediately.

European nations are also involved in talks to build a “drone wall” - a defensive network to defend Ukraine and Europe from drones, recognize that the network or “wall” must recognize that shooting down drones that cost thousnads of dollars with missiles that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars is not the correct approach.

President Zelenskyy commented that the US is currently working on the 5th and 6th armaments package under the NATO Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List initiative (PURL). Zelenskyy said that the goal is 1 $1 billion of weapons per month through PURL

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy but there were no changes in the front line.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv city, and there are claims of marginal Russian gains around Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. Further east, along the border north of the Oskil River, there are also more unconfirmed reports of minor Russian gains near Ambarne.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk with numerous reports of marginal gains by both sides. The fight has once again settled into something seen again and again in this war, brutal short range fights, block to block, sometimes house to house, see-sawing back and forth a street at at time, small elements - usually less than a squad in size (less than 10 soldiers), heavily supplemented with drones and artillery. But there are large numbers of troops in the city and reportedly elements of the Azov Corps have been committed to the defense of the city in an effort to hold it.

Of interest, reporting suggests that Ukrainian drone operators primarily target individual soldiers, while Russian drone operators target vehicles.

Further south, south-east of Borova, imagery showed both Ukrainian and Russian forces making gains in the Druzhelyubivka - Hrekivka area. 

This is repeated further south, with Ukrainian forces making gains around Karpivka and Russian forces appearing to gain control of Zarichne.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North-east of Bakhmut, in the Siversk area, imagery confirmed Russian gains north of Siversk in the Dronivka area (a town of perhaps 500 before the war), they may have gained control of Maly Siversk - a small village (perhaps 50 homes) about a mile east of Dronivka, and imagery confirmed they made small gains south of Siversk in the Zvanivka area.

Fighting continues north-west and west of Chasiv Yar, but there were no changes in the front lines.

West of Toretsk there has been a good deal of fighting but no changes in the front lines until you get out to the area north of Poltavka, where Russian forces continue to push north along the small river and string of reservoirs and have reached a point about 3 miles north of Poltavka.

Further west, fighting continues on both sides of the base of the August salient - south of Shakhove, and east of Bilytske, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

Elsewhere, the only confirmed charges was in the area of Udachne (west of Pokrovsk), where imagery showed Ukrainian forces have control of most of that town.d

There are multiple claims of Russian gains around Pokrovsk, but none of them can be confirmed and many probably reflect recon probes, not actual control of terrain.

Further to the south-west, down to the north bank of the Vovcha River, there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River and west to Orikhiv and the Dnepr River, there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, though Russian forces continue to conduct probes and strikes.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 30th-October 1st, Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x Onyx cruise missile, and 49 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 44 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk and  Kyiv oblasts. There is a partial blackout in Chernihiv oblast.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports have not included casualty reports.

During the night of September 29th-September 30th, Russian forces launched 65 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 46 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy, and  oblasts. Power was out in parts of Chernihiv.

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports confirm at least 4 killed in Kyiv, and 29 injured..

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep30 Oct1

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 67.13 65.52

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 62.54 61.88

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.31 3.36

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.17 5.03

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 82.43 81.24

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.26 41.17

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 63.04 62.28

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 68.89 68.89

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 63.64 62.85

Thoughts

Two thoughts:

First, I am, perhaps, beating a dead horse here but the path to weaken Russia was well discussed in the 2019 Rand Studies (“Overextending and Overbalancing Russia" and “Extending Russia”) pointed at Russia’s economy, and specify rally Russia’s energy industry, as the optimum area to apply pressure, and specifically stated that increasing US energy production and thereby holding down prices - and hence Russian revenues, was the single most significant step course of action to weaken and thereby contain Russia.

Yet, there are still 8 countries in Europe buying energy from Russia. Europe has a plan to end these purchases, but the plan was just completely this past March (3 years into the war), with final purchase not slated until 2028.

It is perhaps of note that US crude oil production and total “liquid energy” production just hit all time highs.

The Rand Study also noted that a military option played to Russia’s greatest strength in the long run.

Second, a study this past week shows that 45% of Ukrainian men aged 18-22 plan to stay in Ukraine.

On the other hand, 23% definitely plan to go abroad, and presumably the remaining 32% are considering it.

Demographic studies show that there were 700,000 Ukrainian males aged 18-22 remaining in Ukraine when the travel restriction was lifted in August, and a net outflow of 27,000 has already taken place.

At the same time, it is now openly discussed that there is a shortage of foot soldiers - infantry - in the army and there are reports of further stripping of rear echelon units in the army and air force, and turning them into riflemen. 

v/r pete