February 13th, 2025  Next Report 17 February 2025

Ground Ops - Gains and losses by bth sides, Kursk, Pokrovsk

Air Ops - Recap from 2 days ago

Politics - Trump - Putin - Zelenskyy talking 

- Hegseth, Kellogg comments

Weather

Cold, windchills worse.

Kharkiv

17 and clear, windchill 7. Friday and Saturday snow, temperatures in the lows 30s. Then 5 days of cloudy to partly cloudy weather, daily highs in the mid 20s, daily lows in the teens, windchills in single digits. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

25 and clear. Partly cloudy to cloudy for the next week, Saturday rain-snow. Friday and Saturday will see highs in the 30s, then five days of highs in the upper 20s, dually lows near 20. Windchills in the low teens. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

21and partly cloudy, windchill 12. Partly cloudy to cloudy all week, snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Tomorrow highs upper 20s, followed by 5 days with highs in the low 20s, daily lows in the low teens; windchills 10 degrees colder. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Both sides had small, confirmed gains and larger unconfirmed gains in the last 24 - 48 hours. 

Southeast of Sudzha, in the area of Ukraine’s recent 2 battalion probe, a Ukrainian platoon-sized probe was operating north of Fanaseevka, probably along the main road just south of pond (a pond just east of Cherkasskaya). At the same time, it appears that the Russians have stopped the overall probe, and have probably pushed up to the south edge of the small village (Fanaseevka), and may have entered the village.

Fighting continues in Kurilovka, but there were no changes to the front line.

On the west side of the salient Russian forces were confirmed to have pushed into Sverdilovko, which if held, would cut off the western tip of the salient. And per the Ukrainian General Staff, there was fighting on the west bank of the river in that town. This would suggest Russian forces have taken the west and central part of the town.

Of interest, a Ukrainian unit reported contact with a North Korean element, and noted that the North Koreans were operating in 1 or 2 squad sized elements. Previously, the North Koreans were operating in platoon to company (40+ to 100+) units and the result was higher casualty rates. Russian forces have been operating as fire teams (3-5 soldiers, 2 fire teams per squad, 4 fire teams per platoon), with fire teams moving forward under cover to increase the difficulty of Ukrainian detection, and to reduce the number of casualties if attacked by artillery. This has been the Russian tactical approach for at least the last 18 months (with a few exceptions - penal colony troops in particular). The North Koreans tried to operate as platoons and companies and suffered higher casualties (though not as high as the propaganda suggests). This new report suggests that the North Koreans are beginning to learn how to operate in a reconnaissance and artillery heavy environment, but they still need to loosen control to the point of junior NCOs leading a fire team.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues in the two small salients north of Kharkiv but there were no changes to the front lines.

Ukrainian reporting notes increased Russian drone operations in this area.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues north of Kupyansk but there were no confirmed gains by Russian forces along the Oskil River.

Due east of Borova Russian forces appear to have made small gains south-west of Zeleny Hai, and south-west of Kopanky.

Russian forces claimed they expanded their holdings west of the Zherebets River (west of Terny), and now claim they hold a piece of land about 5 miles wide (west to east) and 4 miles wide (north to south) but this has not been confirmed.

Bakhmut

Imagery confirmed that Russian forces made gains into the west side of Bilohorivka. Bilohorivka  wasa small village with less than 1,000 people before the war (zero now) and was located near three separate chalk mines. The town has been fought over for most more than 3 years, has been overrun several times, and for much of the last year the front line has held through the center of town. The town is of significance for the high ground locate to the north and north-east. If in fact the Russians have pushed past the center line, this would be of note in this particular battle. Of course, at this point there would be next to nothing left of the town itself.

Fighting continues in central and western Chasiv Yar and immediately south of Chasiv Yar on the eastern edge of Stupochky, but with no change noted in the last two days. Further south Russian sources claim advances in the open fields east of Bila Hora, but this reporting over the past month or so has "see-sawed” back and forth and suggests regular Russian probes and raids and then withdrawals to a line just west of the Donets Canal, using a tree line and the broken terrain around the river that runs through Bila Hora as the bass for their defensive positions.

Russian forces continue to solidify their hold on Toretsk, clearing small pockets and the edges of the town of Ukrainian troops, but still have not finished taking the north-west corner of Krymske or the northern half of Dachne.

Donetsk City

Hard fighting continues around the perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient; multiple engagements were reported along the northern edge, but with no changes noted. Just south of Pokrovsk, Russian forces may have made small gains near Pishchane. West of Pokrovsk, north-west of Kotlyne, Ukraine forces claim they pushed Russian forces back almost to the town itself, but this has not been confirmed. Just southwest of Udachne, (about 10 miles south-west of Pokrovsk) Russian forces have pushed further west and are now roughly 1 mile from the Dnipropetrovsk - Donetsk Oblast line.

Further south, Russian forces made gains in the general area west of Kurakhove, pushing west and south-west from Dachne, and gaining ground around Andriivka and Kostyantynopil. The pocket south-west of Kurakhove is beginning to collapse and over the last two days the width (north to south) has decreased from almost 4 miles to just a bit over 2 miles. The pocket is now about 5 miles long and 1 to 2 miles wide (depending on where you measure). At the western end it opens to trapezoid about 5 miles wide at the western end, and 4 miles long, with the south “jaw” ending at Bahatyr, and the northern “jaw” at a small river bend in otherwise open terrain, less than 3 miles north-east of Olekslivka.

Expect the Russians to continue to grind forward and straighten the lines here.

Russian force continue to slow press north and west from the general Velyka Novosilke area, mainly advancing over unoccupied terrain.

Southern Ukraine

Russian forces were active in the Orikhiv area and along the river,  but there were no changes in the front lines in this are or along the Dnepr. 

Air Operations 

The Russian strike on the 11th consisted of 7 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 123 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 6 missiles and 71 drones, and knocked down 40 other dozens with EW. Ballistic missile strikes were reported in Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih, and  further infrastructure damage was reported in  4 raions of Kyiv City and Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast.

Politics

President Trump and President Putin have spoken in what Trump called a “highly productive" conversation that addressed Ukraine, the Mid East, energy, AI and the economy. He then followed this with a conversation with President Zelenskyy to tell Zelenskyy what they had discussed. Zelenskyy will meet with Vice President Vance and SecState Rubio tomorrow.

Trump commented that the conversation covered:

I just had a lengthy and highly productive phone call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. 

We discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy, Artificial Intelligence, the power of the Dollar, and various other subjects. We both reflected on the Great History of our Nations, and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II, remembering, that Russia lost tens of millions of people, and we, likewise, lost so many!

We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together. 

But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine. 

President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, “COMMON SENSE.” 

We both believe very strongly in it. We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations. We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now. 

I have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witco, to lead the negotiations which, I feel strongly, will be successful. 

Millions of people have died in a War that would not have happened if I were President, but it did happen, so it must end. 

No more lives should be lost! 

I want to thank President Putin for his time and effort with respect to this call, and for the release, yesterday, of Marc Fogel, a wonderful man that I personally greeted last night at the White House.

I believe this effort will lead to a successful conclusion, hopefully soon!

SecDef Hegseth noted that the US is committed to a “sovereign Ukraine,” but NATO membership for Ukraine was not realistic.

"Pursuing this illusory goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.”

He also noted that:

"The US will no longer prioritize European and Ukrainian security as the Trump administration shifts its attention to securing the US’ own borders and deterring war with China.”

Special envoy Kellogg commented on access to Ukraine’s mineral resources as part of the security guarantees.

"They [the Ukrainians] know that the United States is involved economically and that we have an economic interest in Ukraine. This is another part of the security guarantee for Ukraine and they should look at it that way."

"We’re not talking one or two dollars. We’re talking hundreds of millions of dollars in the potential for rare earth minerals in Ukraine. It’s very rich here in rare earth minerals in Ukraine. We should capitalize on it.”

Treasury Secretary Bessent arrived in Kyiv on the 12th to discuss the economic partnership. Later he commented that the US and Kyiv had “essentially agreed” to a deal with $500 billion

One survey of a single deposit (now in Russian occupied terrain just south of Pokrovsk) forecast an estimated $3 - 7 trillion in rare earth deposits.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense provided some details on the voluntary recruitment contract options for 18 - 24 year Ukrainians: a 1-year contract with a 1 year extension contract (the recruit chooses), $4,700 on signing (120,000 hyrvnia), a monthly salary of $2,870, and a bonus of $19120.Volunteers receive 3 months of training prior to deployment. One they have completed their contract, they are exempt from mobilization for 12 months, and are eligible for mortgages, medical care, may travel out of the country, and money for education.

Ukraine’s security service (SBU) has arrested the Chief of Staff of its own anti-terrorist department on 14 counts of spying for Russia.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Feb11 Feb13

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 76.89 75.09

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 73.21 71.34

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 3.52 3.63

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.80 5.77

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 95.84 89.50

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.75 41.76

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 68.30 70.01

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 78.39 76.59

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 71.43 70.76

Thoughts

The progress and the talks are well covered, it would seem we are headed to where most of us thought we would end up: the de facto ceding of terrain (at least temporarily) with a ceasefire and DMZ, with addition of some sort of series of economic deals (carrot and sticks) to bring both countries back someplace closer to normal, and to begin to pay for the immense amount of damage.  

Meanwhile, there are some interesting comments that squeezed out as a result of the beginning of negotiations, which yielded several interesting data points: the Ukrainian army has 40 combat brigades, and less than a month of ammunition in their stocks, perhaps as little as 2 - 3 weeks.

As you will recall, the Ukrainian MinDef was in the press just over the past few weeks, stripping 50,000 soldiers from other billets, and giving them rifles and sending them to fill in among ground combat units, where there is a 50,000 man - 20% shortfall. That number dovetails nicely with 40 brigades, which if manned at 3,000 - 3,500 per brigade calls for 240,000 - 270,000 soldiers; 20% would equate to roughly 50,000.

This 50,000 is in addition to the 5,000 UAF personnel who were striped out of the air force and sent to ground units.

Ukraine has a nominal 800,000 personnel in their army. Of that, some 300,000 (give or take) are WIAs who have been returned to duty, according to their senior medical officer. A modern army has roughly a 1/3rd - 2/3rd split between combat units and combat support, combat service, rear echelons and staff.

If 200,000 represent the forward 1/3rd, and 50,000 are needed to be stripped out of support forces to man the front lines, this suggests that the rumors of a manning crisis in the Ukrainian army is as real as feared, that the Ukrainian army now has less than 750,000 personnel and that the manpower shortage may be as critical as the ammo shortage.

v/r pete