February 4th, 2025 

Ground Ops - Small Russian gains near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk

- More soldiers shifted to Infantry 

Politics  - More on possible talks

Weather

Temperatures below freezing all over Ukraine, wind chills in the teens; terrain freezing, improving mobility, clouds remain, continuing to degrade reconnaissance operations.

Kharkiv

33 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, daily lows in the 20s but dropping, into the teens by Friday; windchills colder - teens at first, single digits by weekend. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

33 and snowing. Mostly cloudy all week; more snow on Thursday. Daily lows in the 20s into Monday, daily highs in the low 30s early in the week, by the end of the week highs will be in the upper 20s. Windchills in the lower 20s to teens. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

30 in light snow, gusting to 20. Cloudy through the week; temperature highs and lows will be in the 20s all week, wind chills in the teens. Winds variable, 10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues along much of the perimeter of the salient but there were no confirmed charges in the front line.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported in Vovchansk and near Hlyboke but there were no confirmed charges to the front line.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces appear to have advanced on the west side of the Oskil River near the Ukraine - Russian border, as well as north of Kupyansk - pushing into Zapadne, and also making small gains east of Kupyansk. Russian forces north of Kupyansk are, per the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS), currently regrouping and bringing in fresh troops.

Well south of Kupyansk Russian forces south of Kopanky (due east of Borova) appear to have gained more ground as they push westward towards Borova.

In addition, Russian forces west of Terny appear to have extended  their position both to the west and the north.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Russian forces made gains in Chasiv Yar, pushing further into central and western Chasiv Yar. South of Chasiv Yar Russian forces have pushed west and have reached the terrain just south-east of Bila Hora.

Further south Russian forces are pushing north out of Toretsk and further into Krymske, and to the south-west further into Shcherbynivka. Further south Russian forces are pushing west and straightening and extending the Russian line further to the west.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continued to attack along most of the perimeter of Pokrovsk salient and posted small gains along much of that perimeter, with gains both north-west and north-east of Vozdvyzhenka, west of Pokrovsk, and west of Kurakhove.

As for the pocket south-west of Kurakhove, Russian forces remain on the attack but there was no confirmed change in the extent of the pocket. However, it appears that Russian forces gained ground in Andriivka, astride the exit to the pocket, which increases pressure on the Ukrainian forces to withdraw.

Further south, Russian forces remain active west and north-west of Velyka Novosilke, but there were no changes to the front lines.

Southern Ukraine

Fighting was reported across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr River, and Russian forces appeared to make some gains on Big Potemkin Island at the mouth of the Dnepr.

Air Operations

Russian forces launched 71 x Shahed strike drones into Ukrainian air space on the night of the 2nd. The UAF claimed it shot down 38 drones, and 25 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.

Ukrainian forces conducted another drone strike on Russian oil infrastructure, hitting the Lukoil's Volgograd Oil Refinery in Volgograd City and the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant near Astrakhan City. Fires continue to burn but there are no definitive assessments yet as to the overall extent of the damage.

Politics

The Ukrainian General Staff has ordered that 50,000 soldiers be stripped out of various non-infantry units, transferred into infantry units, and sent forward to plus up under-manned units. There is additional reporting - rumors - that transfers to infantry units are now being used as punishment for various infractions such as drunkenness and fighting.

The count has been completed and President Lukashenko of Belarus was re-elected on January 26th with 86.82% of the 5.9 million total votes, or 5.1 million votes; this will be his 7th term in office. Lukashenko has been president of Belarus since 1994.

Poll Results;

67% of German support providing military aid to Ukraine, 27% are in favor of reducing aid.

In Poland, 49% favor providing military support to Ukraine - down from 54% last year, those opposed now at 35%, up from 26%

In the Czech Republic 60% are NOT in favor of aid to Ukraine.

Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán commented yesterday that negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow should begin as soon as possible, to prevent Ukraine from suffering the same fate as Afghanistan.

The Trump Administration has lifted the suspension of aid to Ukraine; the suspension was in place for 1 week before being lifted.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Feb3 Feb4

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 75.46 76.22

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 72.46 72.73

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.32 3.30

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.68 5..75

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 99.76 100.59

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 41.70 41.70

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 70.12 68.51

ESPO 65 77 78.19 76.96 78.46

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 71.79 70.79

Thoughts

Two separate reporting strings that weigh on the war’s end game:

A report on Russian casualties during the past 12 months, produced by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. The UKRMOD claims that during the month of January 2025 Russian forces suffered 48,240 casualties.

Assuming an average spread of 1 KIA for 3.5 WIA, this would break to something on the order of 10,500 KIA and 38,000 WIA for the month of January. This is on top of a claim of some 420,000 total casualties for 2024, which would break to something like 90,000 KIA and 330,000 WIA - for 2024.

Given the tactics used by the Russians for the last 2 years, these number seem to be inconceivable.

Two numbers speak against the veracity of these numbers. The first is the MediaZone daily tracking in detail of Russian casualties as reported in Russian local news outlets and through thousands and thousands of social media sites. This effort produces a total Russian KIA count on the order of 91,000 as of the end of January, which would suggests 320,000 WIA.

At the same time there is a figure - released by the Ukrainian General Staff - that Russia will need to recruit 280,000 personnel in 2025 to replace those whose enlistment is up as well as replacing casualties. This would suggest a far lower casualty rate, and certainly not one that saw 400,000+ casualties in one year. In fact, a rough, back-of-the-envelope number would suggest less than 100,000 total casualties for the year, for the Russian army.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army, which holds all casualty numbers as state secrets, with a reported 880,000 personnel currently in the army, is transferring some 50,000 soldiers of various disciplines into the infantry to plus up units that are undermanned due to high casualties; this is in addition to 5,000 Ukrainian Air Force personnel who were recently turned into infantry soldiers.

Reportedly these 50,000 will equate to 20% of all forward forces. Whether that means that there are 250,000 troops forward and 50,000 are being rotated out, or 200,000 and these will simply fill empty slots, or some combination of the above, isn’t clear.

What it does suggest is that Ukrainian forces continue to take significant casualties, and that manpower and replacement of troops is becoming increasingly problematic.

v/r pete