February 21st, 2025 

Politics - Kellogg meets with Zelenskyy - “Positive”

- Mineral deal moving forward

Ground Ops  - Few Changes

- Kurakhove pocket overrun

Weather

Cold weather continues, windchills worse, snow flurries and occasional “blizzard conditions” (per various unit reports) continue to limit both reconnaissance efforts as well as various commercial imagery efforts to locate the front line.

Kharkiv

20 and mostly cloudy, windchill 14. Partly cloudy for the next week. Daily highs will be in the low 20s, lows will be in the low teens, windchills 6-8 points lower. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

21 and partly cloudy, windchill 11. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows will be in the teens, daily highs in the upper 20s, windchills 8 - 10  degrees lower.  Winds northerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

22 and mostly clear, calm. Clear and sunny through Wednesday. Daily lows will be in single digits through next Wednesday, daily highs in the mid to upper 20s, windchills 5-6 degrees colder. Winds variable, 5kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Special Envoy Kellogg met with President Zelenskyy yesterday and talks were described as “good;” subjects discussed included security guarantees, the current battlefield situation, and the return of POWs.

Special Envoy Kellogg commented that the conversation was “positive.” On “X” he commented:

"A long and intense day with the senior leadership of Ukraine.  Extensive and positive discussions with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the embattled and courageous leader of a nation at war and his talented national security team.”

On the 19th Kellogg also met with  Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrskyi (Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces).

Zelenskyy said of the meeting that it “Restores hope.”

Bloomberg is reporting that the US and Ukraine working to finalize the rare earth agreement:

"Ukrainian and American negotiators are seeking to move past the breakdown in transatlantic relations this week to finalize a deal on critical minerals.”

Russia, per Reuters, is prepared to free $300 billion in frozen US assets as part of an agreement, but some of the assets must be used to reconstruct Russian occupied territory.

Meanwhile, Speaker of the House Johnson, when asked if there was a follow-on Ukrainian funding bill being worked through his office, answered: 

"There's no appetite for that… We have to bring this [[the war]] to an end. And I can tell you that our European allies understand the necessity as well. It's (dragged) on too long.”

Ground Operations 

The Financial Times reported that, based on their investigations, Russian commanders have been complicit in the execution of Ukrainian POWs. The Ukrainian government has reported that there were 43 incidents involving the execution of more than 100 POWs during 2024; the Financial Times listed 133 POWs executed, the Ukrainian government notes 109 POWs executed. This represents a “considerable increase” in the number of executions over the first two years of the war. In the one case that the Financial Times studied in detail the Russian unit involved was a unit of Penal Colony troops, but the reports also include Regular Army units form the Russian Army.

North Korean units now operating in the Kursk salient appear to have adopted the small unit tactics of the Russians, operating in squad (8-10 soldiers) and fire team (4-5 soldiers) sized units, and are suffering fewer casualties as a result.

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces continued attacks on Ukrainian positions but there were no confirmed gains by either side. However, on the west side of the salient, south and east of Sverdlikovo, Russian forces reportedly have advanced to and across the Ukraine - Russia border, and advanced through Novenke (a place-name - but no inhabitants or even buildings) and continued south and have entered Basivka, a small farming town located on two roads, one on either side of the Loknya River, about 2 miles south-west of the border.  Basivka had a population of just over 1,000.

Assuming the Russians have pushed into Ukrainian along the river, this slices of the terrain further west and narrows the salient to less than 10 miles from Russian forces in the west to Russian forces south of Sudzha in the east, forces that are pushing westward.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Russian forces continue operations around Vovchansk but there were no changes 

in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces continue operations north of Kupyansk, on the west side of the Oskil River. There were no confirmed gains by the Russians in the area. However, the most trusted blogs, to include one used by the Ukrainian government, shows the terrain controlled by the Russians, north of Kupyansk and west of the Oskil, as growing in size, with Russian forces in control of Zapadne and Fyholivka.

South of Kupyansk there were also no confirmed gains, but Russian reporting credibly suggests Russian gains along the Oskil River, immediately west Kruhliakivka (opposite Senkove). Just east and south-east of this activity, Russian forces continue to probe in the direction of Borova, but there were no confirmed gains. Again, there may have been marginal gains as Russian elements work slowly along the small rivers that feed the Oskil, as well as along the tree lines.

Further south, south of Terny along the east bank of the Zherebets River, it appears that earlier claims were correct that Russian forces had entered Yampolivka. But it is probable that they have entered the northern and eastern side of the small town but do not have full control. Yampolivka is a small farming village of two streets of houses (less than 100 houses), with at total population of several hundred - before the war.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continued north and north-east of Bakhmut, but there no changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues in Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed gains by either side. Russian forces claimed some gains north of Chasiv Yar, but these could not be confirmed. Further unconfirmed report also suggest small Russian gains just south of Chasiv Yar in the vicinity of Stupochky.

In the Toretsk area there were, again, no confirmed gains by Russian forces.

DONETSK CITY

West and south-west of Donetsk the Russians continue their attack. Fighting continued along most of the perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient, and there were claims from both sides of gains, but there is little to show; both sides had at best modest gains south-west of Pokrivsk. Also south-west of Pokrovsk Russian forces continued to press westward, and just south of Udachne Russian forces are now perhaps a mile from the Zaporizhzhia border.

Just south-west of Pokrovsk Ukrainian forces appear to have pressed back into Pishchane and the fighting here appears to be quite intense, another short-range “knife fight."

South-east of Pokorvsk (south-west of Donetsk City) the Ukrainian pocket located to the west-south-west of Kurakhove appears to have been overrun. Russian forces control Andriivka and south of the river control Ulakly, and the Russian front line in the immediate area now runs north-south just east of the town of Kostiantynopil. The line then runs off to the northwest and the south-west, and the Russians continue to straighten lines.

Further south Russian forces from the vicinity of Velyka Novoslike (VN) continued to press north and northwest, down the river, and have reached the south-west edge of the small town of Skudne.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Across southern Ukraine there were sporadic reports of fighting across southern Ukraine but there were no confirmed gains.

SPECIAL OPERATIONS

Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Yevgeny Bogdaniov, former deputy head of the Berdyansk City occupation administration, was assassinated on the 20th of February, killed by a bomb planted in his car.

Air Operations 

Russia is increasing missile and glide bomb production and this year plans to produce 750 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 560 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, and has ordered 70,000 x glide bombs for this year; last year’s production total was 40,000 glide bombs.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Feb20 Feb21

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 76.78 75.08

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 72.83 71.03

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.06 4.39

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 6.04 6.03

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 88.67 89.00

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.66 41.63

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 69.59 69.59

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 78.28 76.58

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 72.46 72.75

Ruble value highest since mid August.

Ukraine reports that overall natural gas production is down 40% since the start of the war due to damage to gas infrastructure cause by Russian missile attacks;Ukraine will import 800 million cubic meters of gas over the next month to compensate. Current imports stand at 20 million cubic meters per day.

Before the was Ukraine was producing 52 million cubic meters per day.

Thoughts

Russian forces continue to grind, which really is about killing Ukrainians and moving ahead very slowly. Ukrainian forces in the center - from Pokrovsk to Bakhmut - face an interesting situation as the Russians are now pushing on the key city of Kostyantynivka from three direction: Chasiv Yar to the north-east, Toretsk to the south-east, and Pokrovsk to the southwest. It would benefit the Ukrainians to shut down these advances before the Russians reach rocket range of Kostyantynivka; the terrain provides some opportunity to do that. There are a series of rivers and reservoirs that represent choke points as the Russians move forward. The Ukrainians could dig in between these water features and make further advance very difficult, building fully formed defensive position, then rapidly falling back, into prepared defenses, rather than trying to hold every inch and taking casualties along the way; build the positions, then fall back. And these positions will improve as spring arrives, the thaw comes, the rivers rise, the ground becomes muddy, etc.

The Russians, on the other hand, will want to prevent that very thing, by keeping pressure on the Ukrainian army, holding onto any Ukrainian unit they encounter and king it hard to disengage, and by striking any engineering unit that comes forward to make fortifications.

As for the negotiations, they press on at a fairly high rate, no surprise. The Art of the Deal on full display here. Bookies in Vegas are saying a 66% chance of a ceasefire in 2025. I think it’s better than that.

v/r pete