February 6th, 2025 

Ground Ops - More Russian gains around Pokrovsk

- Russian gains north of Kupyansk

Politics - Nothing new re talks

- Ukraine takes delivery of Mirage 2000 and F-16s

Weather

Deep winter temperatures all over Ukraine, wind chills in the teens or lower; terrain freezing, improving mobility, some clouds remain, continuing to degrade reconnaissance operations.

Kharkiv

27 and cloudy. Partly cloudy next week.  Daily highs in the low to mid 20s, daily lows in the upper teens, windchills low teens to single digits. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

28 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly cloudy into Saturday, then partly cloudy next week. Daily highs for the next week will be at or just below freezing, daily lows in the low 20s to teens. Windchills in the teens to single digits. Winds easterly to north-easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

28 and cloudy. Cloudy or partly cloudy on Friday, then 3 days of mostly sunny weather. Daily lows will be at or below 20, daily highs will be upper 20s, windchills will be in single digits. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Forces remain in contact around much of the perimeter of the salient. Unconfirmed reporting suggests Russian forces advanced on the northern edge of the salient, near Malaya Loknya, as well as to the south of Sudzha as Russian forces push into Kurilovka.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continued on the eastern side of the town of Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces had confirmed gains north, east and south-east of Kupyansk, and have, in fact, seized Zapadne, 6 miles north of Kupyansk, on the west side of the Oskil river. Unconfirmed reporting suggests Russian forces have also moved into Kalynove, just south-east of Zapadne 2 miles, still on the west  side of the Oskil River.

Fighting continued along most of the rest of the line of contact, with unconfirmed reports suggesting Russian gains east of Borova. There were multiple engagements reported north, north-east and east of Borova, but there is no clear indication of any gains by either side.

Further south there were reports of fighting west of Terny, and some reporting suggests that Russian forces pushed further west over open fields, but again, this has not been confirmed. The land immediately west of Terny is farmland cut by several small, marshy creeks. If the ground is not frozen it would be a bit more complicated crossing it, but as it is currently frozen, it would present fewer problems. It is worth noting that the creeks present ready-made defensive portions for this infantry intense warfare. That the Russians have made it across faster than has been observed in the past suggests something is missing on the Ukrainian side - reduced manpower, reduced artillery support, poor reconnaissance, or a combination of all three.

Bakhmut

No changes in the lines were noted north and north-east of Bakhmut; Ukrainian forces report Russian attacks are now taking place at night as well as during the day.

In Chasiv Yar Russian forces control the north and south sides of the town, most of the center and are trying to press into the western Chasiv Yar, the area known as Shevchenko. But there has been little change in who holds what over the last several day; Ukrainian troops have dug in and are holding for the time being. But Russian forces have logistics lines into the center under direct fire and the city itself is being reduced to rubble.

Further south, Russian forces control all of Toretsk except two of three mine waste hills on the north-west edge of town, and several small, isolated pockets of Ukrainian troops.  Krymske and Dachne also are in Russian control except for small slices of the northern edges of the towns, as Russian forces press northward from Toretsk. 

South of Toretsk Russian forces appear to have advanced into the center of Shcherbynivka.

Donetsk City

Fighting continues east, south-east, south, south-west and west of Pokrovsk, with Russian forces retaining overall initiative, through Ukrainian forces did advance north of Sribne (south-west of Pokrovsk), but Russian forces also advanced in the same general area. Russian forces advanced at several other points along the salient, to include marginal gains north of Kotlyne (west of Pokrovsk), and westward in the area immediately south of Udachne. This gain places Russian forces less than 3 miles from border between the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk oblasts, just to the south of the town of  Molodetske.

Further south, Russian forces made small gains west of Kurakhove, and south of Dachne. There are claims that Russian forces overran Ukrainian positions inside Dachne, but this has not been confirmed. Ukrainian sources do not report location of Ukrainian units, and Russian sources often do not as well, but it seems there was only one Ukrainian brigade, already well under strength, left in Dachne.

Russian forces remain active west of Velyka Novosilke (VN), but there were no confirmed gains.  Gains in that area would probably fall into the category of “opportunistic,” as it appears that the Russian focus west and south-west of Donetsk city is to continue pushing west from the general Pokrovsk area, and that it is unlikely the extra logistics support would be provided for forces from the VN area moving to the north-west. But, I will keep an eye on it.

Southern Ukraine

Fighting was reported in the Orikhiv area and the Hulyaipole area, with some reports suggesting Russian advances in both areas, but changes to the front lines were not confirmed.

Air Operations

Multiple drone strikes were reported in downtown Kharkiv this morning, including hits in the Barabashova market and the Kyivsky district of the city.

Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 104 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space on the night of the 4th. The UAF claimed it shot down 57 drones and that 42 drones were lost (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in the Kharkiv area and the Kirovohrad area. There was no report on where the two ballistic missiles landed.

Ukrainian drones struck the Albashneft LLC oil depot in Novominskaya (eastern end of the Sea of Azov), on the night of the 4th, the fire was still burning during the day on the 5th.

Ukraine’s MinDef reported that Mirage 2000 and F-16 aircraft have arrived in Ukraine. France promised 6 x Mirage 2000 to Ukraine; it is believed the first transfer was a total of 3 aircraft.

The F-16s that just arrived are Dutch Air Force aircraft. The number of F-16s received was not released, though the Dutch promised a total of 19 aircraft.

It should be noted that the Russian strikes continue to damage the power grid, and as of this morning 8 oblasts were experiencing power outages. 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Feb5 Feb6

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 74.65 74.43

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 71.11 70.70

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.29 3.37

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.72 5.86

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 98.00 96.75

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 41.61 41.45

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 70.05 68.53

ESPO 65 77 78.19 76.15 75.93

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 71.81 70.83

While the above prices represent spot prices at a moment in time, oil sales can deviate quire a but from the nominal spot price. Bloomberg reports that, in order to keep the sales volume up, some sellers have recently offered discounts of as much as $16 per barrel.

Thoughts

There is a good deal of chatter about negotiators but nothing new in theist 24 hours.

What is of note is that on the battlefield the Russians clearly retain the initiative. This is of obvious significance because it forces the obvious question: why would Russian want to negotiate?

It would seem to me that there may need to be both a reasonable carrot and a reasonable stick to get Putin moving. The stick is obvious: more weapons for Ukraine, as well as truly draconian, 3rd party embargoes: the US will stop trading with anyone who trades with Russia.

But is there need a carrot? The obvious carrot would be an expeditious re-introduction of Russia’s economy to the global market place: banking, insurance, oil trading, etc. In short, A fairly quick timeline to let Russia regain economic legitimacy among western countries; perhaps even the lifting of sanctions against key Russian political figures. 

Just speculating as to what might need to be considered.

v/r pete