February 5th, 2025 

Ground Ops - Russian Gains north of Kupyansk

- Russian Gains south-west, west of Pokrovsk

- Ukrainian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Politics  - POW Exchange - 150 each

- Preps for Negotiations

Weather

Temperatures below freezing all over Ukraine, wind chills in the teens or lower; terrain freezing, improving mobility, clouds remain, continuing to degrade reconnaissance operations.

Kharkiv

29 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly for the next week.  Daily highs in the low to mid 20s, daily lows in the upper teens, windchills in single digits. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

3o and mostly cloudy. Mostly cloudy through Saturday, then partly c loud next week. Snow showers tomorrow. Daily highs for the next week will be at or just below freezing, daily lows in the low 20s. Windchills in the teens to single digits. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

30 and cloudy, gusting over 25, windchill 20. Cloudy or partly cloudy for the next week, temperatures gradually dropping, daily lows will be in the teens by the end of the week, daily highs in the mid 20s, wind chills in single digits. Winds easterly, 10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting continued along most of the perimeter of the salient but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. Anecdotal reporting suggests that the rotation of certain units, and poor weather (including low cloud covers and fog) have all contributed to slowing the ops tempo.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported in both small salients and Russian forces north-east of Kharkiv appear to have made small gains in Vovchansk, At the same time Ukrainian forces also report heavy Russian artillery fire and tacair activity in the area of Vovchansk.

North of the Donets

Russian forces appear to have picked up the activity level north of Kupyansk, have pressed further west from Dvorichna to establish firm control of that area and have used it to push troops south, along the west bank of the Oskil. Russian forces in the last day or two appear to have at least pushed into central Zapadne, and may have control of the town, and have pushed further south on the west bank of the Oskil, towards Kalynove.

South of Kupyansk Ukrainian forces are reinforcing their positions as Russian forces opposite Senkove continue to try to expand holdings along the east bank of the Oskil, and Russian forces north-east and east of Borova continue attacking westward; but there were no confirmed gains in the last 24 hours.

Bakhmut

North and north-east of Bakhmut (in the general Siversk area) and west of Bakhmut (Chasiv Yar) saw continued hard fighting but there were no confirmed gains or losses. There are reports of Russian gains just south of Chasiv Yar, but these are also unconfirmed.

Reporting from Torestk suggests the Russian forces have gained control of essentially all of Krymske on the north side of Toretsk.

Donetsk City

Fighting continues along most of the Pokrovsk salient but with little confirmed change. Just east of Pokrovsk Ukrainian forces pushed into the small town of Lysivka (about 5 miles south-east of Pokrovsk), while Russian forces appeared to make marginal gains westward along much of the salient. South-west of Pokrovsk about 12 miles Russian forces have taken the small town of Sribne, and also pushed north from Kotlyne one more tree line..

Little change west of Kurakhove, as Ukrainian forces hold their ground in the pocket south of the Vocha River.

Fighting in Dachne (in the north-east corner of the pocket just west of Kurakhove) has devolved to house-to-house fighting, with reports suggesting that the Ukrainians troops left in the town have no possible means of withdrawing, as the one road to the west, and the adjacent fields, are under direct fire from Russian artillery. As a result, the fight has degraded to a “die in place” fight and both sides are now locked in a "no quarter” contest.

As it now stands, Russian forces have pushed forward very slowly and the front line is about 1,000 feet in (east) from the west edge of the town.

Forces immediately north and northwest of Velyka Novosilke did not attack, and will probably restrict themselves to moving on empty terrain, and it is likely that the Russians will concentrate the next offensive effort due west of Pokrovsk. The only north-south defensive line in that area, which runs essentially on the border (a tree line) between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk, is said to be lightly build and lightly defended. The line is roughly a mile and a half west of Udachen and runs roughly from Novoserhiivka to Serhiivka.

Air Operations

Russian forces launched 65 x Shahed drone at least one cruise missive and one ballistic missile into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 37 drones and that 28 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). Infrastructure damage was reported in Kyiv City and Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Sumy oblasts. At least one  cruise missile struck an infrastructure target in the Odessa area, and a ballistic missile, possibly an Iskander, struck in Izyum.

Politics

There was a prisoner exchange yesterday, and each side returned 150 POWs; the UAE acted as the middleman.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov yesterday confirmed that there has been contact between “various agencies” between the Kremlin and the White House. No details were provide as to the level of contact or the frequency.

At the same time, President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff has spoken with Present Trump’s National Security Advisor.

President Zelenskyy commented that he is prepared to negotiate, even with President Putin.

"If that is the only set-up in which we can bring peace to the citizens of Ukraine and not lose people, definitely, we will go for this set-up for the meeting…” He stressed that personal feelings were not important: "I consider him an enemy. And to be honest, I believe he considers me an enemy as well.”

He also made clear that the is ready to make some for to concessions; in regard to regaining all Ukraine territory he noted that Ukraine "cannot lose millions of people for the result that is not yet clear will ever happen” but pointed out that they will not recognize occupied land as Russian. 

President Zelenskyy extended martial law and mobilization for the 14th time, through May 9th, 2025.

President Trump’s Special Envoy Keith Kellogg is also engaged and said that he will meet with President Zelenskyy next week.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Feb4 Feb5

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 76.22 74.65

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 72.73 71.11

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.30 3.29

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.75 5.72

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 100.59 98.00

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 41.70 41.61

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 68.51 70.05

ESPO 65 77 78.19 78.46 76.15

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 70.79 71.81

Thoughts

Lots of talk about negotiations and as everyone suspected, the spokesmen for the key parties are now admitting that there has already been contact of some sort.

Whether there can be any substantive agreement beyond a ceasefire remains to be seen, but it would seem that that minimal hurdle can be cleared.

In the meantime, even though the last few days have shown little progress in the field by the Russians, the defensive positions west of Pokrovsk are thin enough, and the Ukrainian army has, it would seem, few forces west of Pokrovsk. This suggests the Russians could push through the single defensive line and get into Dnipropetrovsk by some time next week.

All of which promises to make difficult negotiations even more interesting…

v/r pete