February 28th, 2025  Next Summary March 4th

Politics - White House: heated exchange between  Trump and Zelenskyy

- Minerals agreement not signed

Ground Ops - Ukraine, Russia, small gains 

Weather

Kharkiv

25 and clear. Cloudy tomorrow and for the next week. Daily lows will be in low 20s through the weekend, daily highs will be in the upper 20s, no significant windchill for the next four days. Winds variable,  less than 5kts.

Melitopol

27 and clear, windchill 20. Mostly cloudy through Tuesday, then some clearing. Daily lows will be in the teens to low to mid 20s, daily highs in the low 30s, windchills 4-5  degrees colder.  Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

30 and clear, windchill 20, gusting to 20. Snow on Saturday, cloudy for the next week. Daily lows around 30 all next week, daily highs in the mid 30s, windchills 4-5 degrees colder. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Zelenskyy met with President Trump in the White House and what followed was a heated exchange.

Zelenskyy insisted that there could be no peace agreement because Putin cannot be trusted. Trump responded that there must be an agreement, and Zelenskyy came back with “there must be no compromise with a killer,” which it seems Trump took as a prelude to forever war. The situation deteriorated very quickly after that and Zelenskyy left without signing the agreement.

However, Trump reiterated that US weapons and support will continue to flow to Ukraine.

Trump noted that he had spoken to President Putin and that Putin wants a ceasefire, and said that a ceasefire is close. 

However, as the dust settles, things may be quite different.

Meanwhile, US and Russian personnel met in Istanbul yesterday to discuss bilateral relations and returning embassies to full working status. There were no definitive details released from the talks.

Ground Operations

ROK intelligence reports that the latest NK troop movement to Russia totals between 1,000 and 3,000 soldiers.

KURSK SALIENT

Fighting continues north-west, north, north-east and south of Sudzha, per Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reporting. Russian forces have pushed across into Ukraine from the western edge of the salient and continue to push south and threaten the main logistic line into the Ukrainian salient. The UGS, which had until yesterday denied the penetration, now report that Russian forces have been turned back.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Russian forces were again active in the two small salients north of Kharkiv, and fighting was reported again in Vovchansk, but there were no noted changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued along most of the line of contact, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line along the entire length of the line north of the Donets River.

BAKHMUT

Fighting was reported north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. Russian reporting however, suggests some Russian gains north and west of Bilohorivka. If accurate, that would reflect Russian force pushing into the high ground immediately north of the town.

Fighting continues in and around Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Further South, inside Toretsk, fighting continues near the northern edge of the town, where Ukrainian forces retook several small blocks several days ago, and on the south side of the town a Ukrainian attack has pushed across open terrain just south of the town itself, entered the south edge of the town and appear to have retaken the large mine waste hills on the south edge of Toretsk.

DONETSK CITY

Ukrainian forces gained ground just east of Kotlyne (west of Pokrovsk) but fighting was reported by the UGS at perhaps two dozen sites along the northern and western edge of the Pokrovsk salient. Russian tactical aviation was very active in a dozen sites immediately east and immediately south of Pokrovsk.

On the south side of the salient and further south, Russian forces gained ground, and appear to have taken most if not all of Kostyantynopil. Russian forces also pushed further west from Andriivka into open terrain north of the towns along the Vovcha river, Oleksiivka et al.

Further south, Russian forces pushed north-west from Skudne and should be pressing onto the Ukrainian defensive positions in the next day or two.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces continued on the attack west of Orikhiv, in the vicinity of Stepove, Kamyanske, Novoandriivka, and Pyatykhatky the terrain east of the eastern-most bend in the Dnepr River), and gained ground west of Pyatykhatky.

Air Operations

Russian forces conducted another large scale strike into Ukrainian air space, launching 208 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 107 drones, and 97 other dozens were “lost” (defeated by EW). Damage to infrastructure was reported in Kharkiv , Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian drones struck and damaged (no further information) a Russian radar on Crimea.

Change in numbers for the operations on the night of the 26th: with Russian forces launched 166 x Shahed drones (vice 177 originally reported). The UAF claimed it shot down 90 drones, (vice 110) and 72 were “lost” (defeated by EW), Infrastructure damage was reported in Chernihiv, Kyiv and Sumy oblasts.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Feb27 Feb28

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 73.75 73.24

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 69.88 69.98

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.03 3.87

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.69 5.61

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 87.35 89.46

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.65 41.59

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 65.49

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 75.25 74.74

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 69.47 70.17

Thoughts 

After the heated exchange at the White House this afternoon things look grim. That said an analogous situation took place in Korea after three years of fighting, with President Syngman Rhee refusing to sign the armistice, with very similar concerns (couldn’t trust the Chinese) and similar demands (he had been assured by Gen MacArthur that the war was to be fought to the Yalu River). 

The US pressed ahead through various avenues and a ceasefire was reached, a DMZ defined, but no armistice was signed, and still has not been signed. And Rhee remained president for 7 years after the ceasefire went into effect.

That said, an argument can be made that Ukraine’s military situation is considerable more fragile than was South Korea’s in the spring of 1953.

v/r pete