February 25th 2025 

Politics - Presidents Trump and Macron Meet

- World Bank Estimate of Damages - $524 Billion

Ground Ops - More small Russian Gains

Air Ops - Another large strike

Weather

Kharkiv

21 and cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows will be in single digits to low teens, daily highs will be in the 20s, no significant windchill for the next several days. Winds variable,  less than 5kts.

Melitopol

24 and mostly cloudy, windchill 15. Partly to mostly cloudy today and tomorrow, sunny on Thursday nd Friday, then cloudy again. Daily lows will be in the teens, daily highs in the upper 20s to low 30s, windchills 4-5  degrees colder.  Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

33 and clear, windchill 29. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, snow showers on Saturday. Daily lows are climbing a bit each day, teens tomorrow, but up to 30 by Sunday, daily highs in the low to mid 30s, windchills 4-5 degrees colder. Winds southerly, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump and President Macron held a joint press conference in Washington yesterday, and Macron agreed that Europe must carry a large share off future costs, while emphasizing the importance of security guarantees for Ukraine. Macron stressed to Trump Europe’s needs and concerns in any agreement. Macron noted that Europe is ready to assist in a peace-keeping force.

Trump also noted that the US and Ukraine were close to signing an agreement on developing despots of rare earths in Ukraine.

This morning (0800), European Commissioner for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy Séjourné announced that he suggested a mineral rights agreement with Ukraine, as an alternative to that which has been proposed by the US.

"Twenty-one out of the thirty critical materials that Europe needs can be supplied by Ukraine as part of a win-win partnership. The added value that Europe offers is that we will never ask for an agreement that is not mutually beneficial.”

Shortly after noon European Commission spokesperson Regnier announced that Ukraine had received no such proposal.

"There is no proposal. During yesterday’s College visit to Kyiv, indeed Séjourné met with his Ukrainian counterparts, and he reaffirmed our commitment to implementing this [[standing]] memorandum of understanding and accelerating the work to strengthen our mutually beneficial partnership.

“As with all the EU critical raw materials partnership that we have, this cooperation is not only about securing supply chains for the EU but also about fostering local value creation and capacity building in partner countries ensuring mutual benefits.

As you see, this is really here about cooperation with Ukraine, and not about any sort of competition with the US." 

The World Bank has provided an estimate of reconstruction costs in Ukraine, the total damage done so far amounts to $524 billon. The World Bank estimate last year stood at $488 billon. Damages include 70% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and 13% of housing (2.5 million households) - an $84 billion price tag. Other elements include:

Transportation:  $78 billion

Energy and Mining: $68 billion

Industry: $64 billion

Agriculture: $55 billion

Debris clearance: $13 billion

A Russian opposition group (“Chronicles”) reported that 46% of Russians do not support withdrawal short of victory. This number has fluctuated over the past 2 years: 47% in 2023, 31% on 2024, now 46%. 

US Aid

A group of Ukrainian economists have reevaluated US transfers to Ukraine, and adjusted the values down, suggesting that many of the weapons provided to Ukraine were of less value, that the value should  have been depreciated. Accordingly, they suggest that the real value of US military assistance to Ukraine is not “more than $60 billion” but is in fact “less than $18.3 billion.”

The report also notes that there has been no waste or loss in the Ukrainian handling of aid.

More aid:

Canada

27 armored vehicles of different types

Landing system for the F-16s

4 x F-16 fly simulators

Ammunition, drone components, first aid kits 

Sweden (quantities never given):

RBS-70 (Man-portable air defense system with a 5 mile range) and Tridon Mk2 (a 40 MM cannon mounted on a truck)

Lithuania (quantities not give)

RBS-70 systems

Estonia - Ammo and rations

Ireland - unspecified air defense system (Ireland owns RBS-70s and Giraffe (SAAB) air defense radars

The EU, Spain and Iceland have pledges more monetary aid.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Commercial imagery confirmed Russian advance north-west of Sudzha, near Lebedevka. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Russian force shave pushed across the border ingot Ukraine in the area north of Basivka, Ukraine, and that  further west Russian reconnaissance elements have pushed across in the area of Zhuravka. If these reports are accurate the Russian forces strongly threaten the Ukrainian supply line to Sudzha.

Other reporting suggested (though it has not been confirmed) that Russian forces made small gains north of Sudzhe (just north of Malaya Lohnya), as well as south-east of Sudzha, near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseyevka. The latter activity is the site of the latest Ukrainian counter attack, 2 mechanized infantry battalions that pushed about 6 miles down the road that runs from Sudzha toward Belitsa, before they were stopped by the Russians. Since then they have been slowly picked apart and have been unable to withdraw.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continued in the two small salients north of Kharkiv, particularly near Vovchansk,  but there were no changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued north of Kupyansk but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Further south, fighting took place east and north-east of Borova, but again no changes. The front line runs near (just east or just west, depending on reporting source) of a site called Zelenyi Hai, which its actually a large farm and collection of barns (hard to tell but there are several different barns which resemble, respectively, chicken barns and dairy barns), and the fighting is taking place within 1,000 meters of the site. This entire area is all well manicured farmland, cut by several small brooks and tree lines and the fighting takes place along the tree lines and along the brooks.

Further south, fighting continues west of Terny (west of the Zherebets River), but the front line remains unmoved.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut, between Siversk and Bilohorivka, and Ukrainian elements continue to hold some ground in the west end of Bilohorivka; there were no confirmed changes to the lines in this area.

Imagery confirmed small gains to Russian positions in the Chasiv Yar area, as Russian forces appear to have pushed back into the east edge of Stupochky (immediately south of Chasiv Yar).

Local weather has been marked in the last several days with fog and rain and the Russians are using the poor weather and reduced warning times to improve chances of moving and attacking.

Further south, fighting continues in and around  Toretsk as the Russians attempt to clear pockets of Ukrainian troops, but there were no confirmed Russian gains or changes to the front lines.

DONETSK CITY

Russian forces remain active along essentially the entire edge of the Pokrovsk salient, and picked up ground to the east, west, south-west and due south of Pokrovsk. Of particular note, Russian forces gained ground immediately south of Pokrovsk, pushing into the north end of Shevchenko, and then moving further north pushing into the very southern edge of Pokrovsk itself, along the main road (the T0515 Roadway) as it enters the south edge of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian reports note an increase in Russian artillery, rocket fire and air strikes. in the Pokrovsk area.

In the last year Russian forces have increased the use of air strikes - and the much heavier destruction from an 1,100 lbs (FAB 500) or 3,300 lbs (FAB 1500) bomb (compared to 97 lbs for a 152MM howitzer round), to more rapidly and completely reduce hard positions in front of them as they enter towns. If they are now going to try to take Pokrovsk we should see an increased use of strike aircraft and the heavy ordnance.

Further south, Russian forces continue to push west along the Vocha river and Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports noted fighting in southern Kostyanynopil. UGS reporting also note that Russian forces further south have pushed into the small town of Burlatske, west of Skudne.

Just north of Skudne (immediately south of the small town of Vesele) is the last prepared defensive line in Southern Ukraine; it will be interesting to see how this fight develops over the next few days.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces continued operations north-west of Robotyne, and probes and strikes were noted near Stepove, Shcherbaky, Kamyanske, and Pyatykhatky; there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, but some reporting suggests Russians have gained ground in eastern Pyatykhatky and are now pressing into the western end of the town from both the east and the south-west.

Air Operations

Over the night of the 24th Russian forces launched 7 x Kh-101 cruse missiles and 213 x Shahed drones in Ukrainian air space. Targets include port and energy infrastructure, as well as several UAF airfields.

The UAF claimed it shot down 139 drones and an as yet unknown number were defeated with EW. Preliminary reports of damage are released from Kiev, Odessa and Zhytomyr oblasts.

During the night of 23 - 24 February Russian forces launched 185 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 113 drones and71 other dozens were los (defeated by EW). Drone strikes were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv and Odessa oblasts. 

Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on Russian oil facilities on the night of the 23rd, and struck the Ryazan oil Refinery (a little over r100 mile south-east of Moscow), and an oil depot near Uzlovaya (about 80 miles southpaw Moscow). Damages are unknown.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Feb24 Feb25

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 74.73 74.30

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 70.69 70.27

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 3.97 4.03

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.90 5.87

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 87.80 86.48

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.76 41.75

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 68.06 67.76

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 76.23 75.80

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 72.75 71.52

Ruble strongest since August 2024

Thoughts

Interesting political developments that should mean nothing unless they get out of control: depreciating the value of the ammunition given you during a gun fight is arguably not a wise thing to do in a situation where the guy giving you the ammo - the US President - is looking to save money. 

Similarly, trying to undermine a deal between the US and Ukraine, the deal which arguably provides a reason why the US administration may view there is a US national interest in Ukraine, is also not a way to smooth the path to a future agreement, unless Europe really wants to go this alone.

Meanwhile, Russia appears to be finding some renewed energy on the ground. Right now it would seem that the Ukrainian government, and the EU, need to be eminently practical and realistic about what can and can’t be done in the short term or they could pay a substantially higher price for a worse settlement.

v/r pete